Anne Shuttee

This would be the largest death toll caused by a single person's decision-making since the Great Leap Forward under Mao, and bigger than the Holocaust.

Electing a clueless buffoon for president—someone who knows nothing and has zero regard for diplomacy, human rights, or the U.S.’s standing in the world—has consequences.

We used to boycott South Africa for apartheid.

Musk's claim that just 10% of US aid reaches recipients is absurd. @cgdev lays out the facts: - US gov costs are just 10% - Rest reaches recipients mostly thru US corps/nonprofits + multilateral agencies - ~10% goes thru foreign organizations cgdev.org/blog/no-90-per…

I thought Trump voters wanted to get out of “forever wars”? Invading and trying to occupy Gaza will drag America into a needless war that for will last for decades. I m shocked that anyone would even debate this idiotic proposal as a serious idea.

I have been appointed by the Court as her attorney in a probate case.  I wish to notify her of the case and of her status as an heir to the estate. Please contact me if you have any leads on her whereabouts. Thank you! #missingperson #missing

MISSING PERSON! If you have any information about the whereabouts of NAUREEN SAYANI, please send me a direct message with your contact information.  Ms. Sayani is from Texas and went missing in September 2016.  She is 46 years old and resided in Boston when she disappeared.

🚨 This Sunday - 2/2/25 - 2pm | Dallas 🚨 Protest against ICE crackdowns! 🚨 Este Domingo - 2/2/25 - 2pm | Dallas 🚨 Manifestación contra ataques de ICE. Comparte!

The Pentagon has announced plans to “rotate” out The New York Times, NBC News, NPR, and Politico from their offices at the Pentagon. In their place, Breitbart, OANN, the New York Post, and HuffPost will take over. Another classic authoritarian move to replace independent outlets with friendly “media” that will only praise the regime.

"The chaos isn’t accidental—it’s strategic and the point. In Trump’s second term, as he floats a third, what might seem like disconnected acts of governance are deliberate steps toward consolidating power." Link below

We are a week into the Trump Administration and it can be summed up in one word: lawlessness.

@PhillipsPOBrien Putin’s poodle.

Just sent out a post about how US foreign policy now seems designed to weaken the US in relative terms more than anything the country has done since 1945. The question, I suppose, is whether its a mistake, or whether its deliberate.

Via "One First," me on Monday's OMB memo purporting to (temporarily) freeze billions of dollars of appropriated federal spending—and why it constitutes both unconstitutional and unlawful "impoundment" that's unlikely to be upheld by even *this* #SCOTUS: stevevladeck.com/p/120-the-impo…

So an insane story by @musharbash_b, a private equity roll-up of fire trucks is why more than half the fire trucks in Los Angeles were out of service during the catastrophic wildfires in the Palisades and Eaton.

Massive demonstration in Bratislava, Slovakia, tonight against the pro-Russia policies of Prime Minister Robert Fico.

I used to say Trump’s greatest legacy is the destruction of truth. I stand corrected. Trump’s greatest legacy is convincing the American people not to care. I mean, think about it. Trump is the only presidential candidate in American history to lose an election and refuse to accept the result. And the American people don’t care. Trump committed crimes trying to stay in power. And the American people don’t care. Trump is singularly responsible for the only attempt in American history to overthrow an American election. And the American people don’t care. And tonight, Trump just pardoned those who were convicted of the most violent crimes on January 6th. And the American people won’t care.

Everyone who spent the last four years swaddling Trump's open and explicit endorsements of political violence in obfuscatory euphemisms owns what's happening right now.

@michael_hoerger Thank you so much for all of your work on this vital subject! I am puzzled by your comment, “I hope the many scientists and public health officials biting their tongues the past 4 years now feel liberated to speak up on Covid.” Why would they feel liberated now, under Trump?

3) It's an important time to reflect that we have never had a federal Covid response commensurate with the magnitude of this $14-billion problem in the U.S. 3/11/20-1/19/21 = 290K infections/day (91 million total) 1/20/21-1/19/25 = 759K infections/day (1.1 billion total) 10 waves and >1 billion estimated infections in 5 years. We have never had a well-conceived multi-layered mitigation strategy, and the strategy we have had has often underachieved due to insufficient operational management. This places society at greater systemic risk from repeat-infection Long COVID. The approach is unreasonable to people with primary immunodeficiencies, cancer, organ transplants, kidney disease, type 1 and 2 diabetes, Long COVID, pregnancy, and many other conditions. Upwards of 2 million older adults in the U.S. are in early retirement, with the labor participation rate still well below pre-pandemic levels, and older adults almost wholly accounting for that presently. The children that were pretended to be magically shielded from Covid are not doing well on the cumulative infection front either. I do not see that changing. I hope the many scientists and public health officials biting their tongues the past 4 years now feel liberated to speak up on Covid. Note that state and regional organizations and individuals were a big reason why transmission was better under control in year 1 of the pandemic. Note that our statistics are estimated "true" cases based on the PMC model, not reported cases, which are vast undercounts (ascertainment bias). See the first Tweet for info on our model, including our website, which contains hundreds of pages of reports (pmc19.com/data), or read our recent pre-print showing the high accuracy of our case estimation model, to the extent that is ascertainable (researchsquare.com/article/rs-578…). To believe the true infection estimates are lower than these figures, one would have to suspend cognitive reasoning and merely assume transmission happens at vastly lower rates in the U.S. than those documented through the most-rigorous testing-based program in Europe.

1) PMC COVID-19 Forecast for Jan 20, 2025 (U.S.) If we are lucky, the 10th wave has peaked, likely in the 0.9-1.1 million daily infections range, barring significant retroactive corrections. Over the next month, we should still see about 14 million infections, resulting in 700K to 2.8 million new conditions and enduring symptoms under the umbrella of #LongCOVID. This is simply your reminder than transmission remains high on the back on of a wave. Regarding the peak, there were huge retroactive downward corrections, especially in Oregon. The CDC data originally showed one of the largest waves there all-time, and then corrected it to say a complete lull the whole time. Once the Biobot data get updated, we may see the peak date change by a week, or jump a bit higher than what you see in the main figure. What you see in the far end of the forecast is unlikely to be a "high lull," but rather an average between a low lull versus a sustained post-peak haunch of lingering transmission. So, keep an eye on the data. If you're putting off a non-urgent medical appointment, we could get into relatively lower transmission in the next 4-8 weeks. What has me concerned is a sneak-peek of @jlerollblues's long-term forecast indicating a clear possibility of an earlier "mid-year" wave than usual, perhaps even in April. We're still getting pretty lucky on the viral evolution front, but the longer that persists, in absent of major policy change, the bigger the wave we could get. It's a very important time to stay tuned. Caveats: No data from Biobot in weeks (20% model weight). The California wildfires and pending severe storms in the Deep South are wildcards for transmission. School-based transmission could pick up, but to get a higher peak, transmission would need to pick up much faster in the South and West than in the Midwest and North (unlikely). In the report, I note that PMC will persist even if the CDC drops or scales back their surveillance program. Also, the most two recent "odd" waves have helped clarify how to handle historical data, and a minor update to the model should help with future atypical waves. If time permits, we will fine-tune those changes further, but there are always more battles on the Covid front than we're able to fight. We also provide a link and light commentary on our recent pre-print showing what our current case estimation model for estimating present/prior daily infections has performed well, and why a lot of other models (BNO, JP, CDC) are underestimates. Info for new readers: For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 1.5 years at pmc19.com/data The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks. Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID… Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, NBC, and CNN. See pgs 11-13 at the above link. #MaskUp #VaxUp #CleanTheAir #RapidTest

6. Human vaccines and therapeutics need to be stockpiled and maintained, ready to deploy should human to human transmission begin to occur. Biological security *is* national security. It is by definition bipartisan. /end

3. Biosecurity of commercial and backyard poultry flocks, cattle, and especially swine needs to be significantly increased. Mass vaccination of poultry against H5N1 (as has already been done in France) should be undertaken. Accelerating the development of a vaccine...