Axiom

@Barrakuda53 Bet canes like an hour before puck drop. No movement. Again 5 minutes before puck drop. No movement. Guess I just look like a donator 👍

@TheAxiomGroup Right, just place a bet at a normal time and see what happens

Anyone that knows about sharp bookmaking, tell me how early they may pay attention to an account? I went from 500 to 10k a month into opening my account, mainly closing moneylines, mlb, nhl, nba, over 25 bets. Asking cause a recent bet was a heavy fav, yet moved 2% shortly after

@robpizzola How did you price that game 7

I honestly thought the same thing but I tracked the series at 22.4 xG for Tampa and 18.9 for Montreal. Certainly didn't feel that way from watching but I'm not gonna argue with the numbers. I'll take the analytics nerd comments but the same models that spit out this data are the ones I've used to bet hockey professionally for years. Tampa was the better team. Montreal just had the better goalie and the better bounces. Sometimes that's how hockey works and that's what makes it great! Habs/Sabres feels like a better series to me anyways.

@Barrakuda53 Ok will do

@Barrakuda53 I mean I'm talking I waited to make my bet right before the puck was dropped. I'm doing a challenge where I'm only betting only against the most efficient price. I took avs for -195, saw it go to -197 after I bet, but thats not a big enough move.

@TheAxiomGroup Easy to test if they are moving on your action or not

@Barrakuda53 Is it? I'm an extremely low volume bettor, only betting against the close on main markets with tons of liquidity. The question was more so about sharp bookmakers profiling accounts, which I know nothing about. It would be more helpful if you sent a full thought next time.

@TheAxiomGroup Pretty easy to test...

Are there betting syndicates equivalent's to like jane street and rentech? Ik of Tony Bloom's. And I'm assuming Billy Walters group, though Idk how active he is these days. Is there any info on this? Wanna see what the top talent is like

@DataBasedBets Probability theory took that shit personal and had to teach you a lesson you wouldn't forget. Been there, done that lol (and will do it again)

Here's a funny story - just yesterday in the midst of this downturn I was at an unnamed casino collecting my free monthly $$ (and hitting their kiosk) which requires just one monthly in person bet under their rewards program and I sat down at roulette (craps was full and I never learned blackjack basic strategy, I know roulette hold is higher) to place my one $5 bet on red and it lost. Briefly decided to martingale it by continually betting red and 7 rolls in a row come up as a black number. Thankfully I stopped before the 7th because I knew -EV betting and chasing losses is dumb + dangerous, but just encapsulated my variance these last couple of weeks on my actual +EV positions. Oh well, just gotta keep grinding

Since the moment after this tweet, I started the worst bankroll drawdown of my betting career due to insanely bad variance on plays I’m 100% confident are long term profitable which I’ve been sizing incredibly aggressively due to that confidence. Thankfully most of the damage has been limited to just me and not the discord since a lot of it was on positions that were not able to be tailed, but damn this stings. Will adjust sizing and grind to bounce back

@dylan_corbet double kelly. if it loses, was just for entertainment while watching the game

Is Spurs moneyline free or too chalky

@Steezehuman Were you knowingly gambling without an edge?

RIP to all the money I lost to gambling addiction.

@RTRDLabs lol fair

Nigga if u had to look thru my page to come to that conclusion I promise you’re not as sharp as you think you are

BREAKING NEWS: twitter user @RTRDLabs is an incredibly unserious person.

@1BettingPartner Interesting. It was on Bookmaker. Does that change anything, as opposed to other sharp books? I'm not a bettor for a living, so not educated on it, I just like to find edges for fun and bet against the closing line lol.

@TheAxiomGroup It honestly all depends on the book.

@littlespoonman @DaveMasonBOL Model I use is a binary classifier and doesn't really price things with true calibrated probabilities, so sometimes we can get wacky and somewhat noisy EV, but I have the fight at around 50/50. I don't think there's anything shady with this one.

@DaveMasonBOL Does this type of line movement make you concerned something sketchy/nefarious is going on? At least one recent ufc fight has been cancelled in a similar situation and I think ufc fans/bettors generally have their guard up

Hmmmm... Massive odds movement Steve Erceg vs Tim Elliot bout. Erceg opened -250. Bet up to -600. Now he is down to -170. Elliot is by far our biggest UFC Perth liability, including Big Fellas: $40,000 re-bet +290 and +185 (wise) $20,000 +260 (wise) $20,000 +212

@RTRDLabs @JeffreyBenson12 @AidenRoss Just looked through your page lol. You're an incredibly unserious person. Have fun buying a dollar for 99 cents the rest your life.

@TheAxiomGroup @JeffreyBenson12 @AidenRoss Not true dumbass.

@JeffreyBenson12 Thanks for the reply. Thats interesting. Well, one of my earlier bets was the celtics ml against orlando last game of the season, so may of been the start lol. Could you recommend me anything to learn more about sharp bookmaking?

@TheAxiomGroup If you are a good bookmaker you can tell with one or two bets whether an acct has a clue

@RTRDLabs @JeffreyBenson12 @AidenRoss Keep in mind the conversation is around sharp books and sharp bookmaking. I'm not trying to mask my edge because I know I'm not getting limited, and I'm betting into high efficiency. Your statement, while true, is about rec books/rec bookmaking.

@JeffreyBenson12 @TheAxiomGroup Challenge. If you are a good bettor you aren’t firing +EV/non-rec plays into a fresh account. Not saying you guys can’t profile, but 1-2 has to be a broad overstatement. I’ll fight you on @aidenross brand risk if you say I’m wrong.

@JeffreyBenson12 and yes these bets were all on a singular market making book

@JeffreyBenson12 Sorry for bothering, but no better person to help me gain some knowledge here lol. I'm relatively wet behind the ears in betting markets,