The Bitcoin Layer

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 U.S. Senator @CynthiaMLummis delivers a strong recommendation of @timevalueofbtc's new book Bitcoin Age at the 2025 Bitcoin Policy Summit by @bitcoinpolicy. "I'd like to recommend a book if I could...I just finished reading a book called Bitcoin Age by Nik Bhatia..."

Stocks broke a key trend line, tried to retest, and failed. That opens up another 15% downside from our perspective, and the liquidity backdrop confirms it.

Interviews coming up on @TheBitcoinLayer over the next few weeks: @SantiagoAuFund @tanvi_ratna @crossbordercap @bondstrategist @LynAldenContact Get involved! LFG!

@_Checkmatey_ thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/the-big-pict…

TBL Liquidy flagged risk on January 14th, weeks before oil spiked and volatility took over. Bitcoin had already been moving lower. @_Checkmatey_ ‘s onchain data shows that hodlers have stopped selling and the remaining sell side is almost entirely recent buyers capitulating. Liquidity is still deeply negative, but onchain data suggests the worst of the selling pressure is already behind us. We break it all down in TBL’s new monthly collaboration with @_checkonchain.

Deribit traders turned bearish on bitcoin well before traditional finance investors did. They are now reducing that bearish positioning first, too. The June Put/Call ratio has moved from 1.27 to 0.73. The derivatives market is frequently the leading indicator worth watching.

Government shutdowns, tariffs, war, quantum threats, a boom and bust in metals, all during a historically weak midterms year. And bitcoin is still in the 70s.

Our letter today from @JohanMBergman thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/are-we-back-…

Bitcoin's passive flow environment today is fundamentally different from 2022. ETF demand, institutional treasury accumulation, and growing stablecoin market caps are providing a structural bid that did not exist in the last cycle downturn. The floor dynamic has changed.

Strategy (MSTR) has become an important sentiment indicator in the bitcoin market @btcjvs on @TheBitcoinLayer

Between January and mid-March, over 600,000 bitcoin were added to the supply between $76,000 and $95,000. That’s an enormous amount of demand absorbed in a region most people were panicking through. The on-chain footprint tells you accumulation was happening at scale while sentiment sat in extreme fear for two straight months. Our conversation with @btcjvs on @TheBitcoinLayer today breaks down what that kind of positioning means historically and why the current setup has more in common with late-stage bottoming than the start of something worse.

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨 Bitcoin Is Stupid Cheap Right Now | James Van Straten, CoinDesk @btcjvs breaks down why the bitcoin bottom is likely in, the four-year cycle is dead, and stablecoin market cap is flashing a generational buy signal.

Morgan Stanley wants its own Bitcoin ETF. The financial services provider just filed a bitcoin Trust with Coinbase Custody and BNY as custodians. Every other major bank has thus far been content to distribute BlackRock’s IBIT or Fidelity’s fund; Morgan Stanley is the first to try issuing one of its own. The company already has over 15,000 wealth advisors and opened up crypto access across all client accounts including retirement last October. That’s a lot of advisor conversations where bitcoin starts showing up as a standard allocation.

Is bitcoin leading markets right now? Bitcoin’s trend break hit January 20th; weeks before oil spiked and stocks broke down in March. Bitcoin is now up over 20% from its February lows in a period that the IEA is calling the largest supply disruption in history as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. As oil fades, the dollar drops, and volatility comes down, TBL explores whether bitcoin called this first and if the macro relief is just catching up

Oil back near $100, stocks breaking a three-year trendline, and bitcoin sitting there unfazed. In this clip, Nik covers the oil shock, stablecoins surging in Dubai, and what bitcoin’s calm this week might be telling us. Full Global Macro Updates now exclusive to TBL Pro subscribers, currently 40% off 👇

Full video and analysis here for TBL Pros: thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/global-macro…

The wave of OG Bitcoin selling that dominated early 2025 looks like it’s run its course. Long-term holders who were taking profits for months are stacking again, and the underwater holders who needed to get out have already gotten out. There's no way to know for sure, but the drop in long-term holders speaks loudly. If the sellers who were willing to sell have already sold, the question becomes who’s left to push the price lower from here. We covered this and the full macro picture in yesterday’s Pro global macro update.

Global wealth: ~$1 quadrillion Bitcoin: $1.4 trillion Still ~1/700 of global wealth

@JohanMBergman thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/supply-meet-…

In the 2022 bear market, Strategy bought 3,282 bitcoin total. Last week they bought nearly 18,000. The difference is the type of capital their instruments attract. @JohanMBergman breaks down the 2022 vs. 2026 bear market comparison and what has structurally changed in bitcoin’s supply and demand picture for @TheBitcoinLayer

Bitcoin follows the same mathematical growth pattern as the internet, a relationship that has held for 16 years. The internet’s user base grew as a power law with an exponent of three. Bitcoin’s adoption is growing at the same rate, same exponent, same type of curve. When the network doubles in users, the price quadruples. TBL sat down with the physicist who discovered it.