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@TheIndexKiller
Un portafolio, cero analistas || Algoritmo Quant Value || ⚠️ Not Advice & No vendo nada ||
. Katılım Temmuz 2022
146 Takip Edilen2.4K Takipçiler

@NeelMacro @NoLimitGains Refining outages are 1% of global capacity, so not the core issue.
Japan’s 80Mb SPR release is gradual. The real risk, pre Hormuz tankers run out this week, forcing Korea, Japan and China refineries to compete for cargoes.
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Oil price could hit $150 to $200. Here is the crisis nobody is talking about.
The Refineries Are Dark And Cannot Restart Quickly
Drone and missile strikes hit refineries across six countries in less than one week. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura processing 550,000 barrels per day is offline. Qatar's Ras Laffan the world's largest LNG facility declared force majeure. UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait refineries all dark.
In normal peacetime a planned shutdown takes 1 to 2 weeks to restart. A missile attack is completely different.
Structural damage to pipes, valves and storage tanks requires full physical inspection. Safety certifications reissued. Insurance renegotiated from scratch. Workers returning to a site recently under attack.
Conservative restart timeline: 3 to 6 months. Severe damage: 6 to 12 months.
Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow these refineries cannot produce immediately. The clock on repairs started the moment the first missile landed.
Emergency Reserves Are Buying Weeks Not Months
The IEA released 400 million barrels. The largest coordinated emergency release in history. Japan alone released 80 million barrels. Germany, Austria and the EU all tapping reserves simultaneously.
At 15 million barrels per day of lost supply that release buys exactly 26 days. Less than one month.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is already depleted after record releases in 2022. The buffer is thinner than it looks on paper.
Iran's IRGC sent Washington a direct message this week.
"If you can tolerate oil above $200 per barrel. Continue this game."
The Bottom Line
Three compounding problems happening simultaneously. Hormuz closed. Six countries of refineries dark with 3 to 12 month restart timelines. Emergency reserves lasting weeks not months.
The market priced in a quick resolution. Refinery damage does not care about ceasefires. It cares about engineering timelines.
That is the part the oil price chart is not showing you yet.

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@TheIndexKiller now you post in English !! ¿quénes son?, Los del Rio nica. Cuando en autopilot 😅
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One-third of globally traded fertilizer nutrients just went offline at the worst possible moment in the agricultural calendar. Analysis and Impact on Fertilizer industry and Stocks
Substack - buff.ly/kdDH6hY Open access
#Stocks #IranUSwar #Epicfury #Hormuz $CF $NTR $MOS $LXU $IPI $UAN $ASIX

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@M_Navarrete_S theindexkiller.com/home/portfolio…
Ahi está el portafolio publicado en tiempo real.
No te recomiendo hacer copy trading.
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@TheIndexKiller Cuando podremos seguirlos en una App? Ya sea para hacer tracking por día (tradingview) o para copy-trade…
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Acción de retailer Abc salta en Bolsa tras iniciar aumento de capital
elmercurio.com/Inversiones/No…

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@Maragume3 No hay noticias negativas (que yo sepa), ni hechos esenciales, ni ventas de insiders que manejan el 70% de Abc.
Veo dos cosas relevantes fuera. Las cifras de desempleo, golpea el negocio financiero y sube la incobrabilidad. La quiebra de Corona.
Paciencia. ⤴️
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@M_Navarrete_S jaja no, siempre el mismo.. Por ahora es los viernes. Puede cambiar en el futuro.
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@TheIndexKiller La ultima 😂 cualquier día de la semana??
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@TheIndexKiller Y en promedio... cuantas veces por mes, semana o día realizan una actualización de las posiciones? Según veo en la web, no se puede identificar o inferir esto.
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@M_Navarrete_S Hola Marcelo, En theindexkiller.com puedes ver actualización en tiempo real!
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@TheIndexKiller No hay mas actualizaciones, rebalance? Sigue en pie el proyecto?
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