@BK7959925597715 @Globalflows I think the other way makes more sense
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The Little Guy
604 posts
Once SpaceX IPOs, one of the largest pair trades equity L/S funds will be running is Tesla against SpaceX, because it will neutralize the Elon factor
Capital Flows@Globalflows
Here is the bigger picture thing that's about to take place We have a pipeline of IPOs that is the largest in history. OpenAI and Anthropic understand very well that you only get a few shots a decade to IPO into a highly liquid market that will pay you whatever you want. What are they going to do? They're going to release A TON of models into the largest IPOs in human history, which are going to take the world by storm so that everyone thinks the only way to survive the AI doom is by buying these companies. Anthropic has been dooming and their news has been causing a sell off in the software sector for over a year now. As we move into this stage of more liquidity, we are almost certainly going to see them release models and hype the entire market into the IPOs which will cause the entire AI space to rally into the IPOs just at the same time macro liquidity is expanding. Polymarket is pricing a coinflip but once they see liquidity rise and the uniqueness of the opportunity, they will shift their position very fast. If public markets pay them a higher valuation than private markets, they will change.
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@virtu101 @FundamentEdge Your value to a PM is that simple. Tell him shit he doesn’t know and be right about it such that even shtty trading will result in gains. Then you can run your own book within a couple of years not 10
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@FundamentEdge i think there will still be a pathway for the absolute best young talent who are fluent with ai agents, can build, can learn finance or anything quickly, etc
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For the first time since the ChatGPT moment in November 2022, I'm starting to get worried about the labor market outlook for junior investment talent into 2027.
Maybe the kids won't be alright.
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@virtu101 @FundamentEdge It’s going to be insane sink or swim. Any analyst that needs direction in this day and age is gone. If you can get smart on a ton of companies in a very short period of time bc of AI you can be dangerous enough to tell your PM things he doesn’t know daily within a few months
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@uncovered_alpha If you can’t pick up 20 new names in 10-12 weeks simultaneously (sometimes mgmt can’t talk for a week or so) you’re not going to make it bc you’re going to fall in love with mediocre stocks as you have no good stocks to comp to
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A few anecdotes from covering consumer that mirror this:
Picking up a new name used to mean 10-12 weeks of S-1 archaeology, sell-side primers, and sheepish IR calls before I felt comfortable in a management meeting. Now, I can see a scenario where onboarding to say a restaurant franchisor I’d never modeled — using Perplexity computer to stress-test my understanding of franchisee unit economics, royalty waterfalls, and the ad fund mechanics against the 10-K. By week 2-3 you could be asking the CFO about G&A reinvestment cadence rather than burning the call on definitions.
I’ve recently started running adversarial dialogues — have Perplexity computer role-play a skeptical PM, a franchisee, a former ops exec — and it surfaces the second-order questions (cannibalization from remodels, DMA-level media efficiency, co-op politics) that used to only emerge after years of pattern recognition.
It’s not a substitute for the real operator call, but it means the real call is spent extracting alpha, not building scaffolding.
Agree on the red queen dynamic, but your point stands: most coverage is a mile wide and an inch deep. The people who use these tools with genuine epistemic discipline (not just to generate content, but to find their own confusion and resolve it) will compound faster than anyone did in the pre-LLM era.
Best time ever to be junior and hungry.
@lefttailguy
illiquid@lefttailguy
I think its a better time than ever to be a junior investor, given you have the insatiable curiosity, energy, and epistemic humility, meta-rationality (cc: @alixpasquet) required to use these tools well. Now more than ever before, junior investment professionals can ramp/reach the frontiers of knowledge on an industry without nearly as much handholding from an experienced mentor. The amount of detail with which you can interrogate technologies, business models, strategic dynamics, industry history, analogous situations, market structure questions, etc. with Claude is amazing. You can create, simulate and read the equivalent of the "WME mailroom" (see Ovitz, Barry Diller, etc.) on every single investment situation, business, industry, if you have the discipline to do so. Previously, as you were reading through primary source material (particularly on an unfamiliar name/business model/industry), you had all of these conceptual questions and confusions arise. Maybe you went to sell side primers or other industry research to clarify your confusion, maybe you called IR, maybe you asked your mentor (who got annoyed because they are busy). Worst case you broadcasted your confusion during a management meeting when you could have been using that time to elicit scarce, alpha-generating context. In some cases, you never clarified your confusions at all and they manifested as permanent holes in your mosaic. Now you can simply mine Claude to give you clarity around those questions and concepts until you have some semblance of a high-fidelity understanding. You can have it point you to related source material that would give you an even more synoptic understanding of the topic at hand. By doing this rigorously, you 10x your ability to visualize an investment situation and have a prepared mind going into the parts of the investment process that are alpha generating. Of course, this "clear understanding" is simply a hypothesis that can be falsified and updated by new information. But having a clear understanding that's falsifiable is better than having a muddled understanding or no understanding at all. Of course this can become a red queens race where everyone else also does this and this level of understanding becomes table stakes. But I really don't think most people understand their coverage to the depth at which they claim to. Actually doing the work with these tools should confer an advantage.
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@MatthewChapin87 @JohnLeFevre The competition for talent is for PMs not analysts. Most under 30 are analysts except truly talented people. Most of them are replaceable by AI
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@JohnLeFevre You are clueless. Very few “pod” people at Citadel or the bunch at Citadel Securities will leave NYC for Miami.
You have no idea how competitive it is for talent in the multi-manager world.
Ask a 21-35 year old Citadel if they would move to Miami from NYC. Good luck
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Mamdani declaring war on Ken Griffin proves how obtuse, fanatical, or simply dumb he is.
Citadel employs ~5,000 people in NYC.
Mean compensation: ~$2M per
Median: ~400K per
If Griffin takes them to Miami, it would be catastrophic for the New Yorkers Mamdani claims to champion - bars, restaurants, small businesses, support jobs, etc...
not to mention philanthropy, secondary/spillover spending, and the obvious tax revenue hit...
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@TwannsWorld There’s a reason he’s in his seat and you’re in yours. It’s likely bc he was a much better analyst than you are
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@blueprintsmb22 Lol even a billionaire founder wouldn’t pay some useless analyst $8mm
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Pod analyst enjoying his $1mm bonus only to learn the senior analyst at the growth heavy single manager overseeing 3 positions made $8mm while working 40 hours a week
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A SpaceX IPO at $1.75 trillion likely forces the market to look beyond rockets and start repricing the full supply chain beneath the space economy.
Here's the map, sector by sector:
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@aleabitoreddit $MEC may be worth a look. About $400 MV with $200 in debt so $600 EV. $600mm in revenue with $120 being power. Ramp up costs now but power will grow to $200 or so next year at 20%+ margin. 6x EBITDA
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$HPS.A is up 21% since my thesis 2 weeks ago.
Unfortunately, not everything can go up 100% every 2 weeks like $AXTI?
If the transformers bottleneck is that extreme for multiple years…
Sometimes it’s better to wait for markets to price that in.
$AEHR or $AAOI triple digit rallies in few week timeframes probably set unrealistic expectations…
Even 10% return yearly is usually good in markets?
This has been 21% so far and I have comments asking if this is still good, but I’m hoping it’s another triple digit return in due time.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. They dominate the market for: -Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market), -serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck) -and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck) I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”… Then you go further: “To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers” Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US? Hammond Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: “Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”. Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know? Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers") Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry). The most compelling signal: -> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD. Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog. Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD. Also: “Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now. Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp. But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition. Regardless still looks cheap. Just a TLDR: $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear. Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long. Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.
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@Zigmanfreud Sounds pretty consensual to me. “I liked it”
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It’s verboten to say that sometimes women engage in sex acts they consent to at the time & then later, usually under the influence of friends/therapist, decide to retroactively rationalize the guy did something very wrong.
Here a woman unwittingly publicly admits to this…
#NSFW
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@JackOrlando777 @FedupCitiz9n @zerohedge Literally only once that’s why he has to peddle substacks when he should be a billionaire
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@FedupCitiz9n @zerohedge Cause sometimes you have to be right only once 😎
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@MartinShkreli @RoKhanna Get these corrupt pos’s! Good work!
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to all house dems, this can happen to you easily. imma tell you one time: don't fuck with me. @RoKhanna you fucked with me. that's against the aforementioned rules. so you next.
everyone has a secret, a vice, a mistake. but not everyone has a determined enemy. tread carefully.
Rep. Eric Swalwell@RepSwalwell
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@Ron380849446691 He was sent for an anger management retreat in Marbella, Spain. Punishment that fits the crime
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My son got stabbed on a German subway yesterday
Apparently an Afghan man got angry at him for not speaking Arabic
He is in the hospital right now, and I have to say the experience has been absolutely wonderful
He was seen by a doctor within 40 minutes of arriving
The doctors were professional and helped my son right away
No one asked for a credit card or insurance details
His life was saved completely free of charge
In America this would have cost $250,000 and he would be in debt for the rest of his life
"Aren't you worried he got stabbed at all?" my wife was crying
"Baby, crime exists everywhere but free healthcare does not" I told her
My son is recovering well and should be back at his feet within couple months
It feels so fantastic to be protected by the EU
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@pludacris @TMTLongShort $STM. 800V, IoT, robotics, optical, space X at a cyclical mult due to auto inventory correction which is over
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He jests but this is going to happen sooner than you think. We need to close the loop first tho. Long sensors.
bubble boi@bubbleboi
I just gave Claude Mythos the full corpus of published EUV stochastic defect data from every SPIE Lithography conference since 2018. The resist shot noise problem is the reason sub-2nm nodes might not be manufacturable. Every photoresist vendor says it’s a fundamental limit. I asked Mythos to solve this… and it’s making progress. It’s designing a chemically amplified resist molecular structure atom by atom. It ran 200,000 Monte Carlo photon absorption simulations on our GPU cluster autonomously. Found a sensitizer geometry that reduces stochastic variation by 4x while maintaining the deprotection kinetics needed for throughput. It just asked me if I want it to generate the synthesis pathway. I said yes. It’s writing the reaction sequence. Guys I’m fucking scared…
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@aleabitoreddit Why not just $STM for spaceX supply chain, cyclical recovery from no more inventory correction in auto, secular from optical and 800V and robotics
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What a sleeper OP pick.
Still almost nobody talks about Win Semi ($3105.TWO)…
From $LITE to $SIVE. And $AAPL to $AVGO to SpaceX.
Feels like everyone uses them?
$5.4B price tag is underselling its importance to robotics, space, and AI hyperscaler supply chains imo.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.
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@SalaryDr This is an absolute joke. Hospitals got massive handouts from the Biden admin. 7-10% pricing growth a year for past 4-5. Too bad CMS keeps giving facilities 3% rate increases every year
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