The Mind Scourge

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The Mind Scourge

The Mind Scourge

@TheMindScourge

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United States Katılım Mart 2011
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
It's Marvels Superheros, all the way down; today, we're all just actors There's a peculiar post-modern quality to many events these days. A sense that we perform history rather than act out (and in, and on) history. The appearance that we curate our actions for our social media feeds, rather than conducting ourselves for the sake of the act itself. Perhaps the truth is that we've internalized the camera, the truest emblem of our present moment. We act to see ourselves acting rather than act in order to do. You see this in farces such as Prigozhin's pseudo-putsch, and whatever Yoon attempted in South Korea. You see this in every protest since camera phones and file sharing became ubiquitous. The people present don't behave like live players - like people who hold history's balance in their hands. They aren't fully committed. They haven't burnt their ships, or cast the die by crossing the Rubicon. Their actions aren't real: they're performative, with an eye to how others will view them, and to create an indelible record of your presence, your participation, in the happening that you're currently in the midst of. It's a scene. What it isn't is History. Contrast this with (to take but two signal examples) Mussolini's March on Rome, and Franco's pronunciamiento. In 1922, Mussolini declared before a crowd of tens of thousands that he wanted power and then sent a column of Blackshirts to Rome while he received delegations from the Italian great and good. He was invited to form a government by the king in short order. In 1936, Franco took direct command of the Spanish Army of Africa, then moved 30,000 men into Spain directly, initiating a brutal civil war in which he ultimately emerged the victor. What neither of these men did - and there are many other examples I could cite - was spend their time printing out handbills or filming blurbs for the cinemas or faffed around polishing how their actions were memorialized. They simply did. Today, however, our Men of Action aren't made of the same stern stuff. Prigozhin certainly looked like a tough guy, but tough guys don't back down at the gates of Moscow. They take the Kremlin. Yoon is supposedly this tough patriarch - he won in part on a wave of popular backlash to feminism - but he doesn't have any children (though he does have plenty of pets), and his declaration of martial law lasted barely a few hours, his special forces got pushed around by tiny unarmed women on the steps of the South Korean legislature, and he folded almost immediately in the midst of arguing over points of proper procedure for lifting military control. If this is the patriarchy, it's fallen on very hard times. The truth is, under modern information conditions, it is very hard to build institutions of lasting value. Contrast the success of the gay rights movement (a slow process of incremental gains over many decades) versus the (to-date) failure of trans activism. Entirely separate theories of change were behind each of these; one worked, and one didn't. A coup is hard work. In the 20th century, you needed careful planning. You couldn't WhatsApp someone. You needed to figure out a way to communicate clandestinely in person; you needed to identify likeminded individuals. All this was hard. The friction points were numerous, and very real. Now guys just issue a press release, and get spicy in the DMs. I blame Marvels. Partially tongue-in-cheek, but also partly in complete earnestness. Capesuit stuff is the great cultural unifier of our times. Everyone has seen at least some examples. These are the pictures that people have in their heads. What they imagine they are acting like. It's very shallow stuff of course, and completely deracinated and ahistorical. But it's nonetheless real. This is how people imagine themselves to be. No wonder they all fail.
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
@Empty_America @TylerAlterman Isn’t survival for so long into the future, and against all probability (a vast interstellar imperium of thousands of inhabited planets) justification enough?
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VB Knives
VB Knives@Empty_America·
@TylerAlterman That is about the only interesting/insightful Dune take I have seen on here recently.
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Tyler is finishing a book, slow to reply
Dune is my favorite sci fi series. But it's kind of weird that Herbert devoted 1000s of pages to humanity's survival strategy and 0 pages to what survival is for
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
Yes. The trajectory is very clear. In some ways it is already here. Think about the rate of targets attacked in Iran. The target sets are too large to be feasibly generated by human analysts alone; possible targets are cued up first by machine, then reviewed for compliance purposes and so forth In the future when you have another order of magnitude number of munitions flying around the battlefield will be too complex to be human managed. It will all have to be electronically controlled. Human leadership will occur at least at one remove, ensuring the systems are operating normally, and so forth
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Roko 🐉
Roko 🐉@RokoMijic·
Imagine a swarm of 100 of these, all with explosive payloads, attacking you from all directions and elevations at 400 km/hr. That is the ultimate drone defense challenge and I think you need some kind of rapid fire AI controlled gun battery to succeed. You probably have 3 seconds to shoot in total.
Samuel Cardillo@CardilloSamuel

direct kinetic impact. a flying sword. 450km/h. updated video showing exactly that. we're also working on the explosive variant. only for authorized partners. dms are open.

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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
Better bet would be to get more foreign competition within the US. Service quality is better overseas. But you’d need to charge a premium. I think you could convert customers, the real growth is in the premium segment now; think about how many airlines are dedicating more cabin space to business, economy plus segments, even first class is making a comeback
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Sheel Mohnot
Sheel Mohnot@pitdesi·
@signulll You’d have to charge a massive premium over current airlines (like 4x), and I don’t think customer demand would be there. Every major airline in the US lost money flying passengers and only survive bc of credit cards.
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signüll
signüll@signulll·
some rich billionaire, can you please create an airline that will destroy every other airline? - charge fair straight forward premium prices - optimize for comfort, food, & premium experiences. - fuck the rewards, credit cards, & points. just clean beautiful experiences. maybe acquire few airlines to do it for gate access.
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
I saw one estimate that there is open source evidence for perhaps 2000 US and Israeli strikes in Iran. Yet the sheer scale of the air campaign is such that perhaps 15,000 targets have been hit by this point. For most, no visual evidence has emerged. The coalition has been very sparing in the information it has released, and for obvious reasons the Iranians won’t talk about it either. We know much more about what’s been targeted by Iran. It’s an asymmetry that doesn’t get acknowledged in the analyses I’m seeing on here
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T. Greer
T. Greer@Scholars_Stage·
The year is 2045. The United States is in the seventh week of Desert Justice. Some Congressman from Texas, major, U.S. Army (ret.), declares that recent operations have shown that America cannot afford to retire the A-10 Warthog.
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
This is a post-9/11 design. It’s actually very interesting. Congress mandated these rules governing new US embassies in terms of setbacks from the surrounding roads and so forth. In many parts of the world they’d just put a high wall in, and they didn’t want to do that in London The solution is what you see here: a moat or “pond”, bollards hidden within a hedge capable of stopping an 8 ton truck at 40mph, berms disguised as “meadows” or lawns, and so on
Jostein Hauge@haugejostein

I live right next to the US embassy in London. They built an actual moat around it. Who builds a moat around their embassy? Countries that do bad things and expect retaliation. Or countries who do diplomacy as if we’re in the Middle Ages.

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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
In the 2000s, war occurred in marginal parts of the global economy In the 2020s, it occurs at the centers of globalization
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
Completely forgotten, but there used to be a security alliance for the Middle East - CENTO or the Central Treaty Organization. It folded in 1979 The US served on its military commission
The Mind Scourge tweet media
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Glen Evans
Glen Evans@Glen_Evans_01·
This is a very good point. The world will re-orient, the Gulf States find other egress... But it all takes time...
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge

Hormuz is a weapon that can only be fired once No one should expect a quick resolution to the current crisis, but across the next decade, even the next 3-5 years, the choke point of Hormuz will be massively substituted for The Gulf Arab states are all very rich, with high per capita GDP - the best single measure of relative state capacity - easy access to global markets, especially financial, and have the favorable backing of the US Everyone has known about the Hormuz vulnerability for decades. The Iranians have continually hinted around closing it, but never did. Now they have, but Hormuz is a gun that cannot be reloaded. Deterrents work only up to the point of use. Once used, they have failed. The purpose of a deterrent is to *not* be used Many analysts have made this basic mistake. They think that Iran is now in a position of strength, having exercised its Hormuz option. But the opposite is true. A state is weakest after it has used its deterrent. The cost of that deterrence is now priced in. The worst having been done, the targets of the deterrent are now free to make other arrangements. Before, they were reluctant to do so because of the switching costs. Now, they have no choice; they will not allow themselves to be controlled in this way again Hormuz may never reopen. But the importance of this is a depreciating asset.

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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
Contrails of fighter aircraft, Battle of Britain, 1940 Guy on Twitter: these trails mean that the Germans are definitely winning. It’s all over
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
China knows much better than anyone on X the capabilities of the F35 because they have the sensors to evaluate it in detail and quantify its vulnerabilities Beijing doesn’t need Iran to get lucky for this to happen You have to remember that Israel and the US have been flying F35s into Iranian airspace for years. Same over Yemen. “Stealth” aircraft are not magic. Like any engagement with modern systems, the outcome is primarily determined by the initial set-up
Dr S Maitra@MrMaitra

Can’t imagine a bigger damage in “great power competition” than showcasing to China that all stand-off and BVR weapons aside, F-35s are not invulnerable to SAMs.

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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
X is over-indexed on anything that seems the slightest bit unfavorable to the US or Israel. It has over-leaned from GWOT where the enemy had essentially no ability to conduct organized resistance or classic conventional war. It sees every enemy successful as this transcendent event as a result, and fails to consider the overall balance of the thing
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Reuben Rodriguez
Reuben Rodriguez@ReubenR80027912·
War with Iran was near universally predicted to usher in WWIII 10k US casualties in 1st months. Houthis blocking Suez, Iran blocking Straits. Hez + Hamas tying down Israel on 2 fronts. China & Russia gobbling territories w/ US pinned down NONE of that has happened
Reuben Rodriguez@ReubenR80027912

@DuvalEaton Begging ppl to read on what everyone said a war with Iran would be like for last 10yrs until 4 weeks ago

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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
Low observability or “stealth” aircraft aren’t magic, everyone People on here need a sense of proportion X commentary is so dramatic and performative
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
I made the Boer War analogy - it’s better than Suez - a week ago at least. Others are picking up on it now But we should be clear about the limits of any such comparisons. Beyond the obvious, specific to the Boer War itself, Britain went on to win two world wars and remained a great power into the 1960s If the Boer War did signal the end of empire, its denouement was extremely drawn out
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Nonsense. Hormuz is not only a permanent weapon, it can deployed both as a bludgeon against the world economy and as a scalpel against the gulf Arabs to coerce them into obedience. The Hormuz weapon, by @policytensor open.substack.com/pub/policytens…
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge

Hormuz is a weapon that can only be fired once No one should expect a quick resolution to the current crisis, but across the next decade, even the next 3-5 years, the choke point of Hormuz will be massively substituted for The Gulf Arab states are all very rich, with high per capita GDP - the best single measure of relative state capacity - easy access to global markets, especially financial, and have the favorable backing of the US Everyone has known about the Hormuz vulnerability for decades. The Iranians have continually hinted around closing it, but never did. Now they have, but Hormuz is a gun that cannot be reloaded. Deterrents work only up to the point of use. Once used, they have failed. The purpose of a deterrent is to *not* be used Many analysts have made this basic mistake. They think that Iran is now in a position of strength, having exercised its Hormuz option. But the opposite is true. A state is weakest after it has used its deterrent. The cost of that deterrence is now priced in. The worst having been done, the targets of the deterrent are now free to make other arrangements. Before, they were reluctant to do so because of the switching costs. Now, they have no choice; they will not allow themselves to be controlled in this way again Hormuz may never reopen. But the importance of this is a depreciating asset.

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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
Hormuz is a weapon that can only be fired once No one should expect a quick resolution to the current crisis, but across the next decade, even the next 3-5 years, the choke point of Hormuz will be massively substituted for The Gulf Arab states are all very rich, with high per capita GDP - the best single measure of relative state capacity - easy access to global markets, especially financial, and have the favorable backing of the US Everyone has known about the Hormuz vulnerability for decades. The Iranians have continually hinted around closing it, but never did. Now they have, but Hormuz is a gun that cannot be reloaded. Deterrents work only up to the point of use. Once used, they have failed. The purpose of a deterrent is to *not* be used Many analysts have made this basic mistake. They think that Iran is now in a position of strength, having exercised its Hormuz option. But the opposite is true. A state is weakest after it has used its deterrent. The cost of that deterrence is now priced in. The worst having been done, the targets of the deterrent are now free to make other arrangements. Before, they were reluctant to do so because of the switching costs. Now, they have no choice; they will not allow themselves to be controlled in this way again Hormuz may never reopen. But the importance of this is a depreciating asset.
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