The Secret IFA

@Benny2169 @apes147 @LeeAndersonMP_ @reformparty_uk The state pension is a benefit. You don't have to pay NI to build credits.

@apes147 @LeeAndersonMP_ @reformparty_uk I work and I'm a net contributor. I think I have the right to see where my taxes are ending up. I will get state pension. Which is not a benefit. It's an entitlement for paying in National Insurance. I got my sums wrong. £98bn divided by 1.3m NHS workers = £75k, not £71k, each.

I wouldn't worry about it too much. You won't be an MP after the next election. Prediction - the whole of Essex @reformparty_uk gain.

@Frencheconomics You've missed Danny Baker off that list.

Tim Cahill, Teddy Sheringham, Neil Harris, [Maggie Thatcher], can you hear me….

The cheeky 3x short 10Y gilt looks a bit more promising now. #bondvigilante

@Steven_Swinford Not anymore. Lammy has called for his head.

It's incredibly febrile tonight: * Three Cabinet ministers including Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, told the PM today he needs to consider his position. Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, did so a fortnight ago. * Tomorrow's Cabinet meeting is going to be absolutely extraordinary. The PM appears adamant that he is going nowhere. Ministers say his position is unsustainable. Rock meet hard place * Cabinet is divided. David Lammy, the deputy PM, is supporting Starmer and making calls on his behalf to try to rally support as per @BethRigby . But Cabinet ministers privately say it is unsustainable. * Wes Streeting, the health secretary, is preparing to mount his bid for Number 10. He has been working on it for months. His PPS and some of his closest allies went over the top ahead of him today * Starmer's loyal Cabinet ministers believe that Streeting has orchestrated the entire coup. One accused Starmer of pushing the party into 'internescine warfare' * A total of ***75*** Labour MPs have gone over the top. This includes five ministerial aides. It represents more than a quarter of the parliamentary party * By tomorrow morning we will have the symbolic 81 MPs publicly calling on PM to go. Separately Catherine West already has 81 signatories to her letter. The intent here is to try to force the PM out. But what if he refuses to go? This could get very, very messy indeed * Lastly the markets tomorrow morning are likely to be carnage. Expect the cost of government borrowing to soar. The political instability plus further turmoil over Iran bodes very badly for the economy

@Andrew33080654 @ValiMD @Saganismm Can you send me the stats on the percentage of dossers vs genuine claimants please? I'd like to see the numbers behind the claims. Thanks in advance.

@TheSecretishIFA @ValiMD @Saganismm There are loads of dossers who are playing the system. The system is broken. How can you get benefits equivalent to someone earning £60k that’s just not acceptable. How can you only work 20hrs a week and choose not to go over because it will affect your benefits.

"The idea that the poor should have leisure has always been shocking to the rich. In the early nineteenth century, fifteen hours was the ordinary day's work for a man; children sometimes did as much, and very commonly did twelve hours a day. When meddlesome busybodies suggested that perhaps these hours were rather long, they were told that work kept adults from drink and children from mischief. When I was a child, shortly after urban working men had acquired the vote, certain public holidays were established by law, to the great indignation of the upper classes. I remember hearing an old Duchess say: 'What do the poor want with holidays? They ought to work.' People nowadays are less frank, but the sentiment persists, and is the source of much of our economic confusion." — Bertrand Russell

@Andrew33080654 @ValiMD @Saganismm People caring for loved ones are dossers? Carers and those they care for are dossers? Students in full time education? People who have had babies? The disabled? All dossers yeh?

@ValiMD @Saganismm So the dossers who get national insurance credits are entitled to the state pension.

@eatmychuddies @BpdLion @mills998904 The state pension benefits were never designed to support a comfortable standard of living. The whole remit was to make sure pensioners didn't go into complete poverty. If you want comforts then you need more, but it's a fair whack of money at £12.5k per annum.

@BpdLion @mills998904 Yes, but governments are greedy and will always want to put their sticky fingers in it. I think too that because it's state owned it'd be inefficient and need constant "topping up" from general funds, so better to not have it at all.

I've been thinking, what's the actual end goal for people to who vote Reform? Once they get rid of all the immigrants, will they offer up their sons and daughters to pick potatoes all day for minimum wage? Work in the takeaway shops? Slave away In Amazon distribution centres?

@ColeFusionHQ @WestLondonWomen You don't have to pay NI to build credits towards the state pension. You can get it in non-working ways too.

@WestLondonWomen SHUT UP

This is the actual deal Britain offers a 22-year-old today: Work 35 years, pay £100k+ in NI, get £241.30/wk. Claim UC for 35 years, pay nothing, get £241.30/wk.

@mleeq16 @Tudorman7 @StephenO52985 @Ufyada @linmeitalks It genuinely is 100% a benefit

@Tudorman7 @StephenO52985 @Ufyada @linmeitalks Dumb ass. State pension is not a benefit no matter what the twats say. We are told you work 40 years paying national insurance you get a full state pension. And pro rata the less years you work. Unfortunately all the governments have been stealing that to pay for scroungers

As an immigrant I’m not worried at all. I welcome it. Many of us moved to the U.K. because of how the U.K. WAS- Stability, economy, jobs and British values / legal systems. If there are so many migrants entering the U.K. it will no longer be that stable unified nation. Plus I don’t cling onto the U.K. for dear life - if it gets to a point where some of us have to leave, isn’t that a positive for our home countries- seeing thousands of us return to rebuild our homelands??

@hardabs24 @BladeoftheS It is actually a benefit and does behave as one.

@BladeoftheS None of those things are actually true though. By the way, tax credits were got rid of by Labour several years ago and the State Pension is not a benefit.

What does Reform actually want? To lower the Minimum Wage. Get rid of the NHS and replace with US Health Insurance. Cut Benefits by at least 30%, which will have to be all of them, including State Pension, Child Benefit and Tax Credit. And much more, and it's all terrible.

@Nunofb86 @Frencheconomics And what about the next few years if we get a more left wing labour leader?

@TheSecretishIFA @Frencheconomics Not discarding some volatility if starmer is forced to resign. But reform victory increases the odds of reform winning general elections, which may be good news for the budget

One of the challenges for UK Gilt investors is how to interpret what seems to be a strong Reform UK result, but also a likely reaction by the PLP urging an economic move to the left. Do you price the probable short term impulse of greater issuance/ inflation - or the longer term signal that a centre-right vote share of ~45% provides? Such a mixed narrative suggests UK markets won’t move decisively over the next few trading days.

@Nunofb86 @Frencheconomics How so?

@TheSecretishIFA @Frencheconomics No. The opposite. Long term this election is good news

@FundFanatic Absolute management shitshow this has been in the last few years. They had some golden tickets and blew it.

Chrysalis #CHRY slid 6% after reporting a first quarter drop in net asset value. The growth capital fund that began a managed wind-down in March also served notice on its alternative investment fund manager as part of a move to become self managed.

@StuboyU Ah the problem with relying on one AI answer...

@StuboyU Also Claude...

@Pecunious365 @Finumus1 I believe it's TG61

@TheSecretishIFA @Finumus1 Is it the #TG61? Don’t see a T61

Get ready to load the T61 for the Rayner tantrum.

@Finumus1 I like the play on T56. If rates stay high for a few years, you get 5.62% in the interim. I like the guardrails on this one. Still a decent swing with rate drops though not as much as TG61.

@Pecunious365 @Finumus1 Trading play. Look at the Modified Duration.

@Finumus1 Real chance I’ll be dead by then - is it still worth it? Could be a piece for Monevator 🤣

@CalumB60835284 @alexwickham And where are you going to magic the money from, Cal?

@alexwickham At last he’s mentioned defence. Maybe I can take him a little bit more seriously now…

EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham says Labour must take a “different course” after the local elections. He declines to back Keir Starmer staying on, signals he’ll make another run for Parliament and argues defence spending should be taken out of the fiscal rules to fund a rise through borrowing. “It’s got to be a moment of reflection,” Burnham says in a Bloomberg interview today, warning the results will be “challenging.” He says in the aftermath it means “starting to now pull through on a different course.” “I understand the real frustration people have got with politics and politicians. I honestly, I really understand that. And they’re right to say politics just hasn’t been working,” the Greater Manchester Mayor tells @flacqua. Burnham makes clear he intends to run again for Parliament. “The politics we’ve pioneered as mayors: place first, not party first — that needs to go national, and so we do need to reform Westminster. I can’t remove the kind of feeling that someday I will try and go back. I’m not ruling it out.” Asked if Starmer should stay after May 7, Burnham declines to answer. Instead he says the PM deserves more “credit” for the job he’s done. And he suggests defence spending should be taken out of the fiscal rules in what would be a major change to UK policy to fund an increase in defence spending through borrowing. While he suggests the fiscal rules “will stay in any context,” he says “there’s certainly a case, when we look at the pressure on defence spending, to consider that exceptionally outside of the rules.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…