Nuno Blanc
1.4K posts
Nuno Blanc
@Nunofb86
Cambridge PhD | Investing | Trading | Macroeconomics | AI | Quant Finance |
Katılım Mayıs 2015
911 Takip Edilen178 Takipçiler
Meanwhile you’re paying someone a bunch of money to give you this, but shroud it in a bunch of pseudo-macro-quant gobbledygook?
DEFINITELY NGMI
@aahan_prometheus@AahanPrometheus
Literally gave this away for free last week. And this week. And will continue to do so every week. And you’re still not subscribed to Prometheus? NGMI
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@charliebilello No fed rate cut? You should be thinking about rate hikes
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US Unemployment Rate remained at 4.3% in April, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 115k jobs were added vs. 63k expected. February/March were revised down⬇️16k. YoY wage growth: +3.6%. Overall: strong report, no Fed rate cut in June.
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@TheSecretishIFA @Frencheconomics Not discarding some volatility if starmer is forced to resign. But reform victory increases the odds of reform winning general elections, which may be good news for the budget
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One of the challenges for UK Gilt investors is how to interpret what seems to be a strong Reform UK result, but also a likely reaction by the PLP urging an economic move to the left. Do you price the probable short term impulse of greater issuance/ inflation - or the longer term signal that a centre-right vote share of ~45% provides? Such a mixed narrative suggests UK markets won’t move decisively over the next few trading days.
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@TheSecretishIFA @Frencheconomics No. The opposite. Long term this election is good news
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@Frencheconomics Uncertainty will drive gilt yields higher IMO. Especially so if there's a challenge to Starmer's leadership over the weekend.
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The financial sector just hit an all-time low vs SPY
Banks are the ultimate canary. The most cyclical.
They see rising delinquencies, tighter credit standards, and collapsing loan demand *before* GDP rolls over
(remember loan loss provisions all beating?)
Very late cycle.
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May 2022–May 2026 -- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has used the phrase “well anchored” dozens of times, making it one of his most repeated talking points on inflation. Yet core PCE inflation (the Fed's "preferred" measure) is 2x the 2000-2010 mean, with Grok / Bloomberg.
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@darioperkins Need to reduce benefits drastically, increase taxes, push that into reducing energy prices
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Every investor I talk to thinks the UK govt is going throw huge amounts of cash at the energy crisis, causing second-round effects. And if its not Reeves/Starmer, it will be "whoever replaces them".
Cant see it. The UK is the one DM govt that is tightening fiscal policy this year
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@FroehlichThors1 You can do that in any 22 year period in history and get something similar
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If you believe bonds are expensive versus equities, be my guest.
TLT/SPX
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Federal Reserve - "We are really committed to our 2% inflation target, we mean 3%."
*Special thanks to the Bloomberg terminal.
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The US is doing a remarkable job with the blockade. It's substantially reduced Iran's oil exports, seized an Iranian ship and threatened secondary sanctions on Chinese banks that deal in Iranian oil. Meanwhile, oil prices are down from their highs. Kudos!
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-smart-bl…
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No deal….. those that called top last week in crude are we going back above $105 in wti?
Opulent Vocation@OpulentVocation
I’ll repeat…The focus of your macro investment thesis should be on the duration of crudes prices above $80 not on calling tops
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The deal is closer than you’d think.
A few days ago and the new 72h deadline added up aligns with the timeline Iran gave the US.
The 48-72h deadline is likely a way to posture and be able to come out as a winner that submitted the enemy for talks that have been planned.
A war more often than not has 2 winners.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: President Trump says that several days ago the US and Iran were close to an agreement to hold direct negotiations, then he explains why he decided to bomb Iran's bridges: "But then they said they will meet us in five days. So I said, 'Why five days?' I felt they were not being serious. So I attacked the bridge," Trump said, per Axios.
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@etihad hello. I was given travel credit for a disrupted flight back. However, there are not many flights now... I cannot use this credit..any chance it can be converted to cash? Thanks
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@qatarairways hello. I was given travel credit for a disrupted flight back in July 2025. However, because there are no flights now... I cannot use this credit..any chance it can be converted to cash?
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@BeardoTrader Now it's just constant market manipulation ...so probably not going down
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Potentially massive development.
“Brotherly Iraq is exempt from any restrictions we have imposed on the Strait of Hormuz,” Iran’s military spokesman said.
Iraq is the Gulf country that has shut in the most crude production capacity at >3 MMbpd—swinging that back would be huge.
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Powell: "There is effectively zero net job creation in the private sector."
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Pezeshkian is not really saying anything new. The regime outlined their conditions to end the war days ago. Iran wants guarantees the US and Israel won’t resume their attacks, reparations for war damages and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
zerohedge@zerohedge
Either Iran's president was misquoted or Pezeshkian and IRGC have completely different messages
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What is very different about this oil spike is earnings estimates are still rising (like 1999).
Equities are key to the FCI dynamics. If they fall hard, this is indicative of stagflation. If they hold up or even recover, we are stuck with just massive inflation.
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