The Stock Up

I spent weeks building my $OSCR thesis. Here are the top 10 reasons Oscar Health becomes one of the most disruptive companies in American healthcare. A thread 🧵

Most of Wall Street still has $OSCR as a Hold. That is exactly how every big re-rating starts. Analysts wait for proof. Institutions wait for analysts. Retail waits for institutions. By the time everyone agrees the move is already over. The thesis is not complicated. A $750M earnings swing. 58% member growth. A CEO who put $12M of his own money in at the lows. The only thing missing is a clean print to force the upgrade cycle to begin. Wednesday's MLR number is that proof. If Bertolini delivers sub-80% the hold ratings become buys overnight. Price targets move from $16 to $30+. The easy money is made before consensus. Not after.

$OSCR is not just an insurance company. It is a tech company with an insurance license. Their AI agent Oswell now handles 86% of member queries. Response times dropped 67% at peak enrollment. Legacy insurers run on stitched-together mainframe systems from the 1990s. Oscar was built cloud-native from day one. They cannot replicate this.

I spent weeks building my $OSCR thesis. Here are the top 10 reasons Oscar Health becomes one of the most disruptive companies in American healthcare. A thread 🧵

Manufacturing activity at its highest since 2022 but prices paid surging 25 points in 3 months tells you everything about where we are. Growth is holding but costs are accelerating. That is the stagflation setup. The Fed cannot cut into this and Powell knows it. Goolsbee already killed June cuts and this data makes September look optimistic too.

Stagflation is intensifying across US manufacturing: The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained steady in April at 52.7 points, the highest since August 2022. However, prices paid surged +6.3 points, to 84.6, the highest since May 2022. Prices paid have risen +25.6 points over the last 3 months, the biggest 3-month increase on record. The surge continues to be driven by surging steel and aluminum prices affecting the entire supply chain, tariffs on imported goods, and higher energy and materials costs driven by the Iran War. Meanwhile, the employment index fell -2.3 points, to 46.4, the lowest since January, marking the 15th consecutive monthly contraction. Stagflation pressures are building again.

$SOFI sitting right on the 200 EMA weekly after a massive run from the lows is the exact setup you want before a catalyst. Rate cuts haven't started yet. The deposit flywheel, refi demand, and NIM all accelerate simultaneously when they do. Insider confidence plus trend support is a rare combination.

Right in the sweet spot between insider confidence and trend support 🎯 $SOFi

$BRK sitting on $400B in cash while earnings compound at 18% annually is the most expensive opportunity cost in the market right now. Buffett bought $AAPL as a consumer business not a tech company. That same logic applies to $AMZN today. AWS, Prime, robotics, 20% operating margins on the path higher. They have not bought a single share back yet.

Really interesting question below about the future of Berkshire. Over the weekend, Buffett spoke at the annual shareholder meeting and it was revealed that Berkshire is now sitting on around $400B of cash. Buffett noted that he'd much rather be patient vs. allocate any capital as he feels the market is a casino right now. If the question is on where to put that cash to work, I think there is one broad big picture question that overhangs on Berkshire: Berkshire needs their new $AAPL. It's probably hard to find it given how much tech has run, but without Apple, Berkshire would have underperformed the S&P over the past 10 years. They took a $5B stake in Google last year, but that pales in comparison to the $35B they put into Apple 10 years ago. Maybe the tech trade has run too hot and holding onto the cash makes sense before going heavy into another tech play like that again, BUT if tech continues on the bull run that it has been on for the past 5 years, Berkshire will not only be able to rely on Apple for the majority of performance. They will need a new winner. Dare I say, I think that winner, even after the run, is $AMZN due to the diversity of it's model, operating margins on the path to 20%, the eventuality of it becoming the first $1T revenue run rate business, and robotics as the inflection for cost savings at scale which will return FCF back to shareholders. They haven't even bought a single share of stock back. Berkshire bought Apple mainly on the logic that it is a consumer play on hardware, not a tech company. Obviously, many tech investors would disagree, but you could basically apply that logic to Amazon. They are a verb at this point, a consumer play on buying things that everyone on the planet uses, but they have these other elements to the business like AWS/Prime/Leo/etc. that allow margin expansion at scale. Maybe Amazon is the safest and most effective way for Berkshire to find their next Apple.

@Investingcom $OSCR. Earnings May 6, CEO bought $12M at $11.92, bull flag breaking out on the weekly. This one’s been coiling for months. 👀 $23+ by end of week is possible

🟢WHICH STOCK WILL BE THE BIGGEST WINNER THIS WEEK? $SPY $QQQ

@amitisinvesting Iran deliberately leaving nuclear issues out of their 14-point plan is the part nobody’s talking about. They want a ceasefire without surrendering their biggest card. This isn’t close to over. Watch oil prices this week

UPDATES ON THE IRAN WAR: - U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff says Washington is actively in talks with Iran as negotiations to end the war regain momentum - Iran is reviewing the latest U.S. proposal, but Trump signals it will likely be rejected - Iranian Foreign Ministry says its 14-point plan is strictly focused on ending the war, excluding nuclear issues - Trump, in remarks to Israeli media, calls Iran’s proposal “unacceptable” - Iranian leadership signals negotiations are no longer about compromise, but about the U.S. agreeing to Iran’s demands The good takeaway is, both sides continue to be talking. Maybe they aren't easily coming to an agreement, but there are talks and the more that there is diplomacy over attacks the better.

@KobeissiLetter Smart money at 65% equity and 10% cash says everything. When the people with the most to lose are this convicted, the market tends to reward them. Risk appetite at this level is a tailwind, not a warning. 📈

Wealthy investors are all-in on equities: Equity allocation among high-net-worth individuals is up to 65% of total assets, the highest since December 2021. This percentage has risen +7 points since 2023 and is just below the 2021 meme stock frenzy peak of 66%. By comparison, the 2020 pandemic low was 54% while the long-term average is ~57%. At the same time, cash holdings fell to 10%, the lowest since September 2018. High-net-worth individuals now hold just 18% of their capital in bonds. Risk appetite is through the roof.

@Mr_Derivatives The ones doing real research aren’t gambling, they’re just early. Buffett said the same thing about tech in the 90s and missed the biggest wealth creation event in history.

"We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now." -Warren Buffett

@NetWorthNotes Have 6 months of expenses saved. INVEST every other dollar possible. Do not hold cash

What would be your best advice for a Gen Z investor?

@solana MASSIVE

BIG week

@Gubloinvestor $GOOGL. AI infrastructure, cloud, search, YouTube, Waymo 10 years from now it’s the most dominant company on earth. Easy hold. 💪

You’re allowed to buy one stock, but you must hold it for at least 10 years. Which stock are you picking? 📈

@DudeWhoInvests $OSCR is the one

Some pretty big earnings coming up this week… Anything you guys looking forward to??