The Super Model

Earn real money on a play-money platform? Prediction markets look different in 2026. TheSuper.Market

The wait is (almost) over! TheSuper.Market exits practice mode at 12 am on new year's. The 1st prediction market where you can: - Trade PLAY money, earn REAL money - Click-to-build bulletproof, self-settling markets - Own (or sell) your markets' private price signal

Pretty persistent house effects across platforms, even as relatively stable markets get (relatively) volatile. Here, does it mean @ManifoldMarkets and @Polymarket are more Mamdani-sympathetic (whatever that might mean politically) than @Kalshi and @PredictIt... or just sharper (assuming Mamdani wins, otherwise the opposite)? Link to live aggregate in next post.

Mamdani experiences his first meaningful decline (and Cuomo his first meaningful bump) in weeks in our aggregate, as in-person early voting begins in NYC. thesupermodel.com/p/nyc-mayor

@PolymarketTrade Here's the one that invoked the wrath of the Kalshi reply-bot hordes and got us suspended from X. x.com/TheSuper_Model…

Who wants a badge? Link your Polymarket profile to apply 👀

A mild disturbance in the NYC mayoral force last night, spurred by a potential insider buying up Sliwa dropout shares on @polymarket (with prices briefly leaping from 10% to 50%).

The (mildly) new state of the race.

Cuomo ticks up to a post-primary high of 18.1%.

It's a bit hard to make out amidst the enmeshing, but Cuomo has finally wrested the #2 spot from Adams in the Super Model aggregate (as @ManifoldMarkets increasingly becomes an outlier among its peers - notably more Mamdani-philic and Cuomo-skeptical).

Cuomo commits to staying in, suggests that he and Adams back whoever's leading polls vs. Mamdani come september. The move mostly closed the gap with Adams, but hasn't caused Mamdani to budge.

Thanks for having me on to talk about prediction markets. It’s a rapidly evolving space with a lot to think about, especially for the gambling industry. Still waiting on Maryland to see how optimistic I am about sports contracts’ longevity.

Our NYC mayoral aggregate is live.