💰 The Value Man - Horse Racing Tips 💰

I see so many people that say they study the form or they have ‘info’ etc, however unless you you are least somewhat looking at the odds of the horse, you simply can’t be profitable long term. In almost every race, the bookmaker builds in a margin called the overround. That means: - The total implied probability of all horses is well over 100% - Even if odds look fair individually, the book as a whole is stacked in the bookies favour So unless you’re consistently finding value by beating the true price, you’re fighting a built-in disadvantage and ultimately a losing battle every race. Price matters.

Ouch! All 3 chinned! 🤢

💥 BOOOOOOM! 💥 And that’s why you trust the process! 🔥 COME WALK WITH ME (Donagh Meyler) wins super impressively to give us a real nice winner! 🥇 Advised at 7/1 & wins easy as you like at 4/1! 🤑 t.me/TheValueMan1 👀

@Frankie33137534 Absolutely criminal that was

Powder puff arms from Grace McEntee on Heroics at Southwell. Stealing a living 🙄

@BensBetsOnX Bad info on her part 🤦‍♂️

Just the 27k taking the risk so far🫣 Think Denise might know something here…. Whose confident in Gaelic Warrior today?

💥 BOOOOM! 💥 Another cracking start to the day! 🔥 WALSINGHAM (Danny Tudhope) comes powering home to get us off the mark for the day! 🥇 Advised at 11/4 & wins at 9/4! 🤑 t.me/TheValueMan1

@stevend62932731 Thanks mate

@TheValueManVIP Well done 👍

💥 BOOOOOOM! 💥 There we bloody go! 🔥 HAVANA PUSEY (Neil Callan) battles gamely to hold off Shallow and secure us a real nice winner! 🥇 Advised at 7/1 & wins at 6/1! 🤑 t.me/TheValueMan1 👀

💥 BOOOOOM! 💥 Cracking way to start the week! 1 bet, 1 winner! 🔥 SHAYHANA (Saffie Osborne) battles bravely to hold off the odds on fav and get backers the win! 🥇 Advised at 9/4 & wins at 2/1! 🤑 t.me/TheValueMan1 👀

Morning Punters! 🫡 t.me/TheValueMan1 👀

A SUPER BOOST isn’t value just because the odds went up. If the boosted price is still worse than the true price , you’re just paying for marketing. Ignore the “was/now” prices. Compare to real market odds. No value = no bet. One of these below is good, one is not. Most don’t understand this.

@MikkyMo73 @BensBetsOnX Precisely. That’s exactly why it’s treated as a concession and is removed pretty quickly from sharp accounts. Majority of accounts with access to SB will be losing accounts unfortunately.

@TheValueManVIP @BensBetsOnX Absolutely spot on, it's amazing how many people don't realise what the purpose of a super boost is. They are there to put money in customers accounts, so that you stay with them and continue to bet with them.

Denise has some knowledge that no one else does.🫣 Sober Glory Stuffed🤯 What do you make of that?

People are also quick to forget all the SB on high profile events that do win and just focus on the losers, that’s just how we as humans are wired. Could you imagine the scenes if it was ever proven 365/bookmakers fixed a race because the wanted to offer it as a SB.. it’s just not worth the risk.

Believe it or not, they still ultimately want the customer to win these type of bets, especially at big meetings, as mug punters will just give the money straight back anyway. There is zero benefit to them attempting to ‘fix’ high profile events, they are a multi billion dollar company.

@Thomas355078406 @SNYbetting Learn what Thomas?

@SNYbetting When will you learn

Aintree Day 2 Super Boosts 🏇 Sober Glory to Win @ 2.25 (Bet365) Sober Glory to Win @ 2.25 (Sky Bet) Sober Glory to Win @ 2.25 (Midnite) Great value here 🫱🏻‍🫲🏼

@MaccasValueBets 100% If I’m honest, I’m just bitter that those idiots will have access to a 365 account for life. That’s what dreams are made of!

@TheValueManVIP Yes, and they'll only appear after the game. Always the same guys

Is the Bet365 / Paddy Superbost any good? Bowen Shot On Target (In EPL) - 16.67% 2/12 ❌❌❌❌❌❌❌✅✅❌❌❌ However if you just use Hit Rates for your betting then you are likely a losing bettor, it has very little predictive power. My models indicate the fair odds are 1.57 which is a touch above most of the bookies offering on their non boosted lines. Some people will look at the Betfair Exchange for fair odds which is sitting @ 1.72. Is the exchange a good indicator? Well yes on most occasions, on props / low liquid events you have to be a little more cautious, especially here as matched bettors are pretty dumb and will try to lay their bets on the exchange, artificially moving the price. I'm confident with my model price here which would give you +20.4% Expected Value. Many firms are offering the same boost so max stake them all and take advantage

@Mathewforthh @corachsamason Yeah exactly that. You need to be judging on long term P&L but also apply some common sense when looking at the data which makes up said P&L

@TheValueManVIP @corachsamason Understands what they're looking for. Ultimately, people judge on results but a superb judge could be -30 after six months, a cretin +30. I'd value the -30 more going forward

People on Racing X are going abit potty. There are tipsters with no p and l discussing how long write ups are so important and anyone penning a few paragraphs is poor😂 Surely the key skills of a tipster are an updated p and l at every stage and consistent winners? Talks cheap.

@Mathewforthh @corachsamason You would like to think so wouldn’t you, but still plenty out there that lap it up unfortunately. Really sad to see in all honesty.

@TheValueManVIP @corachsamason It depends. You could land a random multiple, or guess at a big odds horse that produces false results knowledge wise. Over a really long time you will probably lose as you need more than luck. That's true, but think it's simple to spot who is doing that and who actually

@Mathewforthh @corachsamason I would say long term positive results are definitely a sign of skill, short term not. Unfortunately it’s so easy to just get a write up from places like chat nowadays. Half the tipsters out there don’t have a scooby but yet have comprehensive write ups on every horse/race.

@corachsamason The two go hand in hand. Positive results aren't a sign of skill, the worst type of punter will show profit over selected periods due to variance in results. Showing a sign of understanding what you're betting on, with details to match, will almost always result in the person

Ffs, no she doesn’t. Of course some will get chinned, but Super Boosts are loss leaders for bookmakers and they know that long term they are giving away money, that’s the intention. They want punters to have that winning feeling, that’s what keeps the mugs coming back.