The Waiting Game

$AAOI is now close to a 50% drawdown from its ATH in... May. It is, of course, a sector-wide issue, as other players like $SIVE have been hit as well. However, as usual, this sell-off might be disconnected from the actual business momentum. The demand for high-speed optical transceivers (especially 400G and 800G architectures) is booming, positioning $AAOI perfectly to capture this multi-year growth cycle. As we can see in the attached chart, 1.2/1.6T high-speed interface modules will be growing at an enormous pace, reaching almost half of the total TAM by 2030. Their strategic partnership with Microsoft remains a massive revenue catalyst. Being a key supplier for a hyper-scaler provides them with a stable backlog that smaller competitors cannot match. What is even more interesting, the margins are bound to improve as the product mix shifts towards higher-generation optics. At these levels, the R/R is getting tempting. NFA/DYOR Chart source: Omdia research via Applied Optoelectronics IR.

@TheBigBerbowski Interesting, Texas is leading with their politics regarding neoclouds, due to their incentives and highly competitive electricity rates. NY will lose a lot.

New York becomes the first state to impose a data center moratorium This is the news that tanked the whole sector: $NBIS $CIFR $IREN $WULF $SHAZ $WYFI. Will other states follow this move? Wdyt?

@aleabitoreddit Great price action following this deal... $NBIS is tempting at these levels. Their global expansion is accelerating.

$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT. But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.

Just a reminder that $AAOI went from $85 (March lows) to $220 in just 1.5 months. Perspective is everything - the recent drawdown does not look so dramatic when you look at the bigger picture. What are your end-year price targets? 👇 NFA

@ciainvestor The reason is partially that $AAOI begins an expansion of their manufacturing campus to scale 800G and 1.6T transceivers production. It was released today.

Am I dreaming? $AAOI

@KawzInvests People are not aware how strong the demand is. More 800G and 1.6T transceivers in the product mix will impact positively $AAOI's margins.

$AAOI just broke ground on nearly 400,000 sq ft of new manufacturing in Pearland, Texas. All of it dedicated to 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers.

@retail_mourinho Nice. No red light therapy sessions for a while?

Okay, and now send it

Big tech's hunger for AI power is reshaping the energy market. ⚡️ $GOOG just agreed to buy 100% of the output from the Steel River Energy Center solar + battery project in Arkansas to offset its fossil fuel emissions. - Operations set to begin in 2029. - Phase 1: 1.6 GW of solar and 2GWh of storage. - Full completion: Expanded to 2.5 GW solar and 2.9 GWh of storage. Google's electricity use surged 37% in 2025 alone, showing how aggressively hyperscalers must lock in new capacity. First Solar $FSLR supplying 100% domestic panels is also a massive nod to US manufacturing. The solar energy market is growing exponentially worldwide, with China being the leader with ~42% share of global generation. source: Financial Times & Ember NFA

@yianisz Great way of looking at things. $AAOI story is a combination of rising capacity with a more appealing product mix, due to 800G and 1.6T transceivers.

Everyone is watching $AAOI orders. I’m watching what management does after the orders. Think about the sequence. First came $324M+ of hyperscaler orders. Then a $500M capital raise. Then 900,000 sq ft of manufacturing expansion. Then record equipment purchases. Now construction has officially started on a campus adding nearly 400,000 sq ft dedicated to scaling 800G and 1.6T production. Companies don’t build factories for yesterday’s orders. They build them for the demand they expect over the NEXT several years.. To me, the market is still treating AAOI as if it’s simply selling more transceivers. Management is behaving like a company preparing to become one of the largest AI optical manufacturing platforms in the US. That’s a very different story.

@TheBigBerbowski @Peter_J_Beck Let's come back to this post at $150 again.

$RKLB at $150 - Magical! It's the best! We love it! $RKLB today at $79 - Ew. It's the best space play short, mid and long term. Thesis: There's no CEO like @Peter_J_Beck. That's it. I'm bookmarking this to have one of those did you listen, anon posts in the future.

@JonkooTrades The great thing about this is that with the new generation transceivers,they will increase their margins significantly.

$AAOI is turning its expansion plan into poured concrete. Construction officially began today on two adjacent Pearland, Texas properties, adding nearly 400,000 sq ft to scale 800G and 1.6T optical transceiver production. This is the buildout management flagged back at Q1 earnings, backed by a $20.85M Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund grant. Target is monthly output above 650,000 units of 800G and 1.6T transceivers by late this year. Per the company’s own commentary, demand for 800G and 1.6T is outpacing production capacity through mid-2027. The bottleneck here isn’t orders, it’s floor space. $AAOI just bought more floor space. The quarter behind it backs the story up. Record Q1 revenue of $151.1M, up 51% YoY, the fifth straight record quarter. A long-time customer recently placed a $200M+ order for 1.6T parts alone, stacked on an existing multi-year Microsoft supply agreement. The moat is vertical integration. $AAOI makes its own lasers and chips instead of assembling sourced parts, which matters most exactly when an industry is mid-transition from 800G to 1.6T and speed-to-market decides who wins the socket. Nvidia reaffirming pluggable optics through 2027 also pushes back the co-packaged-optics disruption case that’s hung over this name for a year. High conviction on the story, high volatility on the ticker. Not Financial Advice. DYOR.

@bitcoinbutcher1 @FinancialErnie @smatthewschultz @edvestments So much AI-related positive news flowing in this week.

AI is dead Congrats @FinancialErnie @smatthewschultz @edvestments and the rest of the $clsk loyal

@EhrmantrautCap_ The whole memory sector is being re-rated, $SNDK is already seeing new, higher price targets.

Insane. Almost $400 billion cumulative operating profit in CY2026 and CY2027. We are still not bullish enough on Micron. Plain and simple. $MU $DRAM $EWY

@TheBigBerbowski There are so many factors that you need to take into account, that overcomplicating it even further is a major mistake. That's why keeping it simple usually wins in the long-term.

I came for the money, I stayed for the challenge, the thrill, the difficulty. Jesse Livermore said: "The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." Buffett called it "lifetime of puzzle-solving" The stock picking isn't for the lazy. It's not for those who judge with emotions. Why I love it is because it feels like we're playing the 3d chess. You should more or less know how these work: - Micro / marco impact - Wider economics, inflation, rates - Industry and its challenges - Competitors - Supply chain - Financial analysis - Management At the same time: - You need to manage your fears, panic, greed - You need to put your ego in the bin - You need to invest your savings - You need to compete against people who pay bloomberg terminal out of their pocket money for that week - You need to compete with the smartest and richest funds on the planet Of course, you have to be super calm, showing no emotions, reduce the impact of your bias, make rational decisions, see signs of decline before the show up, avoid chasing fomo, stay disciplined. I mean, it's very simple. That's why we love this game.

@yianisz Keeping an eye on $AAOI, can't wait to see their results in August.

$TSEM just became even more important to AI photonics.. Japan expansion raises its 2028 target from $2.8B/$750M to $3.6B/$1.2B—and that’s before Track Two contributes. 70%+ of SiPho capacity is already reserved through 2028, with $1.3B of contracted SiPho revenue for 2027. Upstream: More demand for $SOI wafers (Soitec), InP substrates ($IQE/JX) and advanced packaging. Downstream: More qualified 300mm SiPho capacity helps unlock optical module production for $AAOI $LITE $COHR and ultimately supports AI deployments by $NVDA $MSFT $META. I think the market still views Tower as a niche foundry. It’s quietly becoming one of the most strategic bottlenecks in the AI photonics supply chain..

@StockSavvyShay Korean companies on the rise, Samsung need these type of high-profile AI clients to close the gap with TSMC.

Samsung Foundry has reportedly secured Anthropic as a custom AI chip customer.

@wallstengine They should probably regulate the leverage usage as well, lol

South Korea 🇰🇷 plans to ease FX rules in 2H to expand global use of the won, per Bloomberg. The reforms include easier won liquidity access for foreign financial institutions, more won-denominated investment products for foreign investors & incentives for trade settled in won.

@TheBigBerbowski Here we go again.

Kospi strikes back SK Square -8% SK Hynix -5%

@moninvestor When in doubt, I compare holding stocks to those overleveraged strategies many use, and it instantly makes me feel much calmer.

The macro hasn't been great for most of this year. We've had tariffs, inflation, uncertainty around interest rates, war after war (+trade war), the blockade over the Strait of Hormuz, constant talk about an AI bubble and now the situation in South Korea. A lot of the recent selling in South Korea has been made worse by heavy use of leverage and margin. As when prices fall, investors are forced to sell to cover their loans, which creates even more selling pressure. If there's one lesson from this, don't invest with borrowed money. The companies we invest in can't control any of this. They can't control tariffs, inflation, interest rates, wars or what happens in South Korea. All they can do is execute, build better products, win customers and grow the business. As investors, that's what we should focus on too. Despite all of these headlines, the biggest AI companies are still committing enormous amounts of capital to AI infrastructure because they believe in the long-term opportunity in AI. Short-term macro events don't change that. Over the past three years, my portfolio has had huge swings. In 2024, it moved from red to green multiple times before making new highs. This year, I'm almost back to break-even even though my largest position has gone from being up significantly to almost flat. That's investing. Warren Buffett has seen Berkshire Hathaway fall by around 50% three different times. He didn't panic because he wasn't investing with borrowed money. He knew the business would become more valuable over time. That's the mindset I'm trying to have. Focus on the business. Think long term.

@YodaStockInvest Sentiment is even worse than during March lows... which seems like a good sign. Hopefully, we are near the bottom.

I can already see the X comments in 2030: ‘Wish I bought $IREN under $50’ ‘Wish I bought $SOFI under $20’ ‘Wish I bought $ASTS under $100’ ‘Wish I bought $ONDS under $10’ ‘Wish I bought $HIMS under $40’ Laugh now, cry later after these stocks have recovered and more.

If you had to deploy $10,000 at market close, where is your highest conviction? 1️⃣ Memory e.g. $SNDK 2️⃣ Photonics e.g. $AAOI 3️⃣ Elsewhere (name your pick) Drop a comment below 👇