The Budget Lab

Enjoyed speaking with @JohnKeilman on future administrations' options regarding tariff policies. wsj.com/economy/trade/… via @WSJ

Watch @NatashaRSarin's interview with @KatyTurNBC @MSNOW about the economic impacts of the Trump Administration tariffs. youtube.com/watch?v=zzA43V…

@riccoja joins @cnni @questCNN to weigh in on the latest tariff changes. youtube.com/watch?v=5s0hsN…

@john_iselin on CNNi discusses tariffs and the new @The_Budget_Lab analysis. youtube.com/watch?v=BrFWqi…

S122 tariffs, the 150-day stopgap put in place after SCOTUS ruled, expired today. They're replaced by tariffs under S301 (w/ some minor tweaks to the proposal we saw in June). On net: a very slight dip in rates. Our (@The_Budget_Lab) analysis is here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state…

In today's @nytimes @TonyRomm "The policies could raise the average tariff rate on imports to 12.8 percent by the end of the year, according to an early analysis by the Yale Budget Lab, which studied the duties previously announced by the administration. (Some of those rates have since changed.) That compared with 9.8 percent if the administration did not act and let an existing 10 percent tariff around the world expire." nytimes.com/2026/07/24/bus…

The Administration's new tariffs are just as bad -- and legally dubious -- as the old ones. My latest for @nytopinion here: #commentsContainer" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">nytimes.com/2026/07/23/opi…

The Trump administration is imposing a new round of tariffs on Canada, accusing the country of unfairly discriminating against American autos, dairy products and alcohol. The 50% tariffs would cover some $20 billion worth of Canadian imports and are set to take effect in 30 days. @GeoffRBennett speaks to @NatashaRSarin for more.

New @The_Budget_Lab numbers on the 50% Canada tariffs. What's notable about this one is that there's no trade-agreement carveout. Despite the rhetoric, most tariffs haven't hit CA imports very hard due to USMCA. CA's effective rate has been consistently below the overall rate.

The latest from the amazing @The_Budget_Lab team -- as the Section 122 tariffs expire this week, the replacement tariffs are set to *increase* the effective tariff rate by 3% and cost households an extra $500+ annually. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state…

Second release of the day, let's do this! Today, @riccoja, the team at the @The_Budget_Lab, and I release two new Tariff products! First, we are putting out an improved set of tariff results, and second, a new an new Webtool to access our estimates: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state…

From Axios on our recent report: "If the U.S. experiences an AI-fueled productivity boom over the coming years, it will mean stronger growth — but, at least under current tax policies, that would have limited benefits for the U.S. fiscal outlook"

Today, Ryan Nunn and I are releasing an analysis of the potential impacts of AI-driven growth on Federal tax revenue. This is the first step of an extensive project building out AI-related fiscal modeling capacity at @The_Budget_Lab. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/how-p…

.@marthagimbel, of @The_Budget_Lab, joined @mdc for this new episode of Mary in America 💫 It's live now, on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts: youtube.com/watch?v=0nQhvV…

Great to be with @SquawkCNBC this morning on why the question for the Fed seems to be when to hike, not if. Watch here: cnbc.com/video/2026/07/…

What do we know about how AI and demographics could intersect? History isn’t much help, largely because almost all the past seismic technological changes have occurred during periods of population growth. 2/

Great to talk with @danwwang for @nytopinion on putting the US economy in a global context. Listen here: nytimes.com/2026/07/08/opi…

@marthagimbel joined @business "Everybody's Business" podcast to discuss America, the 250 year old start up. Listen to her assessment of America Inc. on a variety of topics from the recent SCOTUS decisions to immigration to political risks and the US debt. bloomberg.com/news/audio/202…

So today is a great day for my piece in @TaxNotes to come out on "How Do We Tax AI?"... 1/