CryptoBoar
3.6K posts
@0x_kba got the same ideas when read the original reserch yesterday. 4b+ fdv sounds like a pure gamble. During this market I doubt they`ll got even 2
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Honestly, this interpretation jumps to conclusions that are very unlikely to be true. The supposed “insider” didn’t just bet on >1B FDV, which is basically in line with Lighter’s estimated valuation based on OTC point prices. He also bet across almost every FDV tier, including levels that no insider could realistically control. Even if someone knew the exact TGE date, that tells you nothing about whether the market will price Lighter at >6B one day after launch. That depends entirely on market behaviour, not privileged information.
Many of these positions were opened months ago, at a time when the “if there is no TGE in 2025 the market resolves to NO” rule was something people barely noticed. Most traders simply weren’t paying attention to that detail and were betting without factoring it in at all.
And now we are less than three weeks away from the end of the year. The Lighter spot platform that just launched only allows ETH trading for now. No meme token, no extra assets. There is no real need for them to rush anything and launching in a hurry would make little sense. A short initial period that rewards spot activity actually benefits them more than forcing a TGE just to fit an external deadline.
I think it is far more likely that the person behind those bets is someone close to the project, a Lighter maxi who has been betting on long-term strength rather than someone acting on precise insider timing. It is also perfectly possible that they didn’t even notice Polymarket’s rule at the time they placed the majority of these trades.
Based on everything we are seeing, I think it is much more probable that the TGE does not happen this year than that it does. Given the current Polymarket probabilities, there is a lot of value to be extracted from that.
Andrew 10 GWEI@Andrey_10gwei
Lighter Airdrop and TGE Coming Within the Next 3 Weeks - Insider Bet Proof on Polymarket @Lighter_xyz's airdrop and TGE are coming in the next 3 weeks. The proof? An insider team member's bet on @Polymarket. I found 2 interesting accounts on Polymarket that belong to the same person. - Account 1: @0x1E9c0e8D5921dEa0A7e746e34E530373b795409c-1762892527849?via=10gwei" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0x1E9c0e8D592…
- Account 2: @k13florist?via=10gwei" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@k13florist?vi… Combined, they've placed approximately $125,000 on various FDV outcomes with "YES" results in this market: Market Link: polymarket.com/event/lighter-… The key detail about this market: it will automatically resolve to "No" if Lighter doesn't conduct its TGE by December 31st, 2025. Why This Is 100% Insider? I verified the wallets that funded these Polymarket accounts and identified the insider's primary wallet: 0x64Afae722A05b1d28e831B2C20A8EBFEa9dA6352. Seven months ago, there was a $1.7M deposit to Lighter from this wallet. But this doesn't prove anything significant, so I dug deeper. I traced a connected wallet linked to the insider's primary address: 0x8098343F3456D97be3843a128c5d773e765433B8 The first deposit to Lighter from this wallet was made on January 21st, even though Lighter's invite-only access didn't open until January 24th, 2025. Only @Lighter_xyz team members or people extremely close to them could have made a deposit before January 24th. The Connection: Both 0x64A and 0x809 use the same @coinbase deposit address: 0xb903f16771883bF694f307b28EBE70407A817Ee9 This strongly suggests they belong to the same person. Additionally, I found connections to other wallets through an another exchange deposit address - this time on @binance: 0x6f3f94ae0A67535233eDf0Ebc23E021B23D705b3 0x809 and 0xA48d879ab2B1dc99E02071BbE1C5938117B9B4d2 and 0x4DFe2c38ae15972716ac2F7219bbD7e4B69e9e3F These two addresses interacted with Lighter's smart contracts back in 2023! During that period, only the team had access to the exchange. This 100% confirms that the person placing bets on Polymarket is either a Lighter team member or someone extremely close to the team = Insider. This means Lighter's TGE and airdrop will definitely happen in December 2025, and there's solid money to be made on this Polymarket opportunity. If you liked this tweet – follow and like! English
DEX paid. Liquidity locked.
The platform launch is coming very soon.
All token trading fees will be distributed among activated player cards during the CS Major Budapest tournament.
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@QLambda_ Another clone of ponzi scheme but on BNB. Let’s gooo
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This @donamarahp MF is trying to build smth on $NEAR. No cabal, no jeeting, just pure bravery and strategy. If you don`t have money for buying $JAMBO (i don`t belive you), at least subscribe to his tg channel.
t.me/misterthedude
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