Michael Kelly, CFA, CFP®

@DeadCaitBounce Leave us alone Cait - some of us are fragile

maybe we need to bring back bullying because why are grown adults unable to cope with doing the bare minimum

@DKThomp @DrSamuelBHume Love the call out. Nothing worse than the old spin zoning of obvious and common sense data to fit a narrative.

I just wish we could have a sensible conversation about a normal person's definition of moderate drinking. This study finds that the risk of alcohol consumption on the brain is nonlinear. People w/ drink 4 drinks a day probably have a disease. 28 drinks a week is like obviously very bad! I'd believe that people who average 14 drinks a week are putting their bodies at risk. But <7 drinks a week is very normal for a lot of people, and there's just very very very weak evidence that this behavior will kill you. From this study: "Increasing alcohol intake from zero to one daily unit results in a reduction of −0.030 SD in global GMV and −0.020 SD in global WMV in the model estimated on the full sample" Going from a moderate drinker (<7 drinks a week) to abstaining achieves a benefit of −0.020 standard deviations in white matter volume, according to one cross-sectional study. Let's not pretend this is some sort of catastrophe!

It is regrettably a very reproducible finding that alcohol shrinks the brain

@zachary_ashburn @RobertMSterling I feel like this is a personal shot and this aggression will not stand man!

@RobertMSterling Robert due to this information I’ve been shopping for a 1999 Toyota to better weather the inevitable doomsday, please advise

There are two—and only two—groups that have figured out how to produce EVs profitably and at scale: 1. China, led by BYD and backstopped by the CCP 2. Elon Musk and Tesla That’s it. No one else in the US—and certainly not in Europe—can do it. Not Ford. Not GM. Not VW. Definitely not Rivian. Collectively, these companies have burned tens of billions of dollars on underwhelming designs and flawed marketing strategies, with little to show for it but disappointing sales, layoffs, and investor writedowns. If you support EVs and you want an industry not fully dominated by China, you need to be rooting for Tesla and Elon. Because, at this point, they’re the only chance America has.

I came across a case of someone with > $15 Million of [large chip maker] That person needed our D.E.L.T.A. Framework D - develop your family’s goals purposefully E - evaluate your individual stock position (s) L - looking through a tax efficient lens T - to arrive at a core portfolio that can A - achieve your family’s goals more reliably When you mess up this flow you get stuck You hold stock paralyzed from selling You sell stock you wish you’d held You get stuck on tax hacks vs. life living You ignore massive tax opportunities You miss years of your dreams and goals This framework is an absolutely vital part of our business that I just came up with right now for this tweet But it’s true and I’d love to help you with it

We had a few intro meetings this week so we reviewed our script. In our CRM, it says: “Thanks so much for reaching out, I’d love to offer a resources I can, tell me what you all have going on. **THEN SHUT UP**” And suddenly we’re left sitting in a great space for a money conversation So when I see someone like this I always think, “just go ahead and reach out. I’ll shut up and we’ll have a great time”

@zachary_ashburn I mean that’s quite the compliment - swinging faster than Federer

Hey @The_MikeKelly I asked AI what we’ll be like after 35 more years of Reach Strategic Wealth

@zachary_ashburn I’d beg to differ - 2/7 You are a man and you do in fact have a family.

I am almost 1/3 of these things Truly blessed 🙏

@zachary_ashburn Is he searching for the golden handcuffs? Don’t tell me you announced THE hunt without me!

You were born a treasure hunter You just forgot it somewhere along the way Let’s rediscover it

@pranshutewari @privatWealthGuy Oh there is ZERO doubt the industry is filled with them. The problem is prospective clients seeing it as truth and not just unwarranted complaining.

@The_MikeKelly @privatWealthGuy I've talked to at least 10 since Dec. you'll be shocked at how much nonsense is being peddled.

A new 41 year old client just sent over their account statements from their previous advisor. Their Roth IRA allocation is 56% equities and 44% fixed income and REITs.

@pranshutewari @privatWealthGuy If only it was that easy…

@privatWealthGuy There are so many low caliber advisors - a good marketing strategy would be to just talk about what dumb things others do that you see.

Coming up to 5 years in the wealth management space after over a decade in banking. In life I always operated under the philosophy of max effort in silence - not performative public grinding. While I’ll never operate by the latter, I’ve painfully learned that to be successful you must be known. And to be known you can’t stay quiet. Time to show that we are elite @zachary_ashburn

@markcecchini Let's go dude!!!! Congratulations!

Welp, I'm calling it. Barring a crazy market reversal today, I've officially crossed $1,000,000 in ARR. Started the year at $460,000. # households = 54 Average age = 39 Never been more excited to clock in.

Quick answer: There is no great source. I'd lean on combining reports from Gartner or Synergy with a mix of the latest analyst notes for hyperscalers and reporting from hyperscalers themselves. The issue is that you'll get decent cap-ex numbers, but revenue will always be a bit of a shit show.

What's the best source -- from an article, bank, analyst note, etc -- for the level of "AI revenue" that hyperscalers are seeing right now? (Yes, I know this can be fudged in a million ways; eg, Meta can always claim that X percent of its ad revenue is thanks to AI.)

I remember sitting in my car during lunch one day early in my banking career — staring out the windshield, wondering how I’d ended up there. I had a 'respectable' job. A good salary. People congratulated me for being on a great career path. But the truth? I was faking it. I didn’t even understand half the work I was doing — and worse, I realized it didn't matter as long as I hit my marks. That moment hit hard. It was the first time I asked myself a question that would shape the rest of my career: What’s the point of success if it feels like failure? I didn’t quit that then or even that year — but that was the first crack in the facade. Years later, I’ve come to realize how many high earners are quietly living the same story. They’ve built wealth, but not freedom. If that hits close to home, you’re not alone. The golden handcuffs don’t look like chains — but they hold just as tight. Ever have your own car moment? I'd love to hear.

@planwithchapman @tomowenmorgan Is that 2008 with the collar?

Rocking this for the season opener - surely @tomowenmorgan approves.

@trentjhughes Left a lucrative banking career to have time freedom. Didn't think it would turn into a career of helping others break the golden handcuffs too.

Who here quit a job to become an entrepreneur? If so, what finally made you quit?

@JamesonCamp @zachary_ashburn Let’s do it! Would be more than happy to chat.

@zachary_ashburn @The_MikeKelly Haha yesss! Thank you! Maybe I can buy you both lunch instead somehow

Paying $100 for 20 Mins to talk to compliance officers of RIAs or broker dealers. Ping me if you can connect!

Don't judge me for admitting to be a numbers nerd. deft-mover-6337.kit.com/posts/stacking…

July 2025 - Market Illusions & A Nuclear Comeback open.substack.com/pub/stackingeq…