The All-In Podcast

David Friedberg: El Niño Could Trigger a Global Food Crisis “This Science Corner is about the dreaded El Niño season that is coming up. Ocean temperatures are going to exceed anything we have seen in recent history. Why does this all matter? The reason is the oceans are the battery of weather. And at this point, there is so much excess energy stored up in the oceans, it's about 11 million terawatt-hours. That's 500 years worth of human energy in this ocean. And over the next few months, that energy's going to be released into the atmosphere. 99% confidence that will make the upcoming year the hottest year on record by far that humans have ever experienced. Southern Argentina, Chile, Brazil could see record-shattering heat waves, and this is where things start to get a little nasty, because when that happens, the crops start to fail. Hundreds of millions of people depend on the exports out of Brazil, Brazil is the world's largest ag exporter. And the scariest one of all is if the monsoons fail, which is now a very high probability event in India. 150 million farmers in India, and 1.5 billion people that depend on that food. If you think about the second and third order effects of this, over the next year you could see energy prices spiking, and electricity spiking, and the grid failing in parts of the Southwest. Commodity prices spiking all over the world. And then you would see places like India, the Philippines, Vietnam starting to face some sort of unrest if there isn't enough food supply that's coming into those markets. And then the question in India is a really nasty one because there isn't a really good solution.”

Marc Benioff hilariously recaps the last year in AI: “Sex bots off, coding agents on!” 😂 @Benioff “ Every company has kind of chosen a slightly different path. You had Elon, he went out, he had Grok, and he kind of started building these companions and sex bots, and all this kind of stuff going on. Then you had OpenAI, and they were doing the Sora video thing, and they're also doing ad networks and crazy stuff like that. Then you had Gemini, and they had the Nano Banana. And then finally, you've got Anthropic and they go, “We don't know about those sex bots, and we don't know about Nano Banana, but we're going to do coding agents.” And it turned out Anthropic was right, and all of a sudden the rocket ship took off, and now everybody's like, “Whoa, where did Anthropic go? Oh, whoa, they're way up there.” And then they're all like, “We're only going to do coding agents too.” And now they're all resetting, “Kill Sora. Sex bots off.” You know, “Cursor on.” People have to pivot. We're even working on technology inside Slack to make it easier for everybody to code.” @Jason: “Oh, breaking news!” Benioff: “You're going to see some cool stuff with Slack and code. I'm not ready to talk about it yet. But there's no question that we are at a new moment in coding.”

Chamath: Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance in 18 Months @chamath: “ We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today. Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us. And so as we scale up our chip fabs, as we get more capacity, and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed. I don't know if you guys saw, but Neuralink was showcasing a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operations for the implantation, all automatically. When you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today. Today, it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan.”

Marc Benioff to SaaS CEOs upset about AI hurting their valuations: Grow up, wipe your tears, focus on the customer Chamath: “ Let's say you were running a software company that was before the AI wave and you're private. There's a bunch of these companies that were supposed to go public, (but) didn't go public. What should they do? What do those boards do?” Marc @Benioff: “Here's some Kleenex for them for all their tears. I mean, I talk to these CEOs, they're crying, "Look at my market cap, I'm not getting paid for my work." Guys, grow up. That's what I love about the public markets, they rationalize everything all the time. So great, be in the public markets. You want to be in a private market? Your valuation is fantasyland until somebody's actually going to pay you. So I just tell them, focus on your revenue, focus on your customers, focus on your cash flow, focus on your profitability, focus on your innovation. How are you going to add value to your customers? That's what's really, truly important.”

“I am going to probably use $300M of Anthropic this year at Salesforce.” - Marc Benioff “ These coding agents are awesome. Anthropic is awesome. Coding, everything's going to be cheaper to make, it's more efficient. I can do things that I just could not do before. I can go faster than ever before. I can implement my software and sell it at the same time. I've never been able to do that before. Today, I have humans, agents, and headless platforms all interoperating, never before. So the opportunity for my own company and the efficiency that I have in my own company, in service and support, in distribution and marketing, across the board, is unprecedented. What I can do for our customers, unprecedented. And, to that point, my gosh, have you seen Anthropic? It is a rocket ship that will not stop.”

There is no substitute for bestie @DavidSacks … showed up black-shirted, caffeinated, & fully armed with enough crazy. Besties talked future of enterprise, AI agents that actually work (not just hype), and @chamath has enough truth China bombs to trigger all the Besties. Zero filter. Brilliant El Niño insight from @friedberg. I wasn’t ready for @Jason and neither was the group chat. Buckle up. This one’s XX spicy. 🌶️ 🚀 Check out the full episode here → youtu.be/jJRAvZNGUvI

🚨 POD UP! HAPPY FRIDAY! Bestie Guestie Marc Benioff (@Benioff) fills in for Sacks A LOT covered on this one: -- Trump-Xi Summit: Trade, Taiwan, midterms impact -- AI's impact on software: What thrives and what dies? -- OpenAI could sue Apple over failed ChatGPT integration -- Thinking Machines drops new model, future of AI is multi-sensory -- BIG Science Corner on a potentially devastating El Nino (0:00) Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff joins the show! (1:14) Trump-Xi summit, doing business in China as a US company, impact on Americans and the midterms (18:46) Taiwan, chips, AI models, and peace through trade (31:41) AI's impact on software: What SaaS thrives, what SaaS dies? (47:26) OpenAI is considering suing Apple over failed ChatGPT integration (56:54) Thinking Machines releases real-time model, future of consumer AI, multi-sensory models (1:02:24) Science Corner: Impacts of a historically strong El Nino in 2026 (1:11:40) Anthropic goes after "Dark SPVs"

“I Walked Into My Boss's Office and Fired Myself” - Chase Koch on the Importance of Finding Your Power Alley “I was promoted to president of Koch Fertilizer at that time, and about nine months in, I realized that I was not the guy for the job. And I walked in my boss's office and fired myself. Humiliating, especially being the boss's son. Oh my God, I'm a failure. I couldn't make this work. The business was still doing fine, but I wasn't doing a good job as a leader. And I knew there was someone else that had the comparative advantage to be a great operator, CEO, president type role. And so I learned through all that, that I wasn't an operator, and I was a builder. Like, all I wanted to do was go build this stuff, you know, this whole idea of creative destruction, that would disrupt the core business that I was running. Understanding your comparative advantage, what you're good at and what you're not, relative to others that could be doing that job, was a huge deal. My hope was that that was a little bit of an example for other Koch leaders as well. If you're not in the right job, you don't have to, like, fire yourself, but figure out what your power alley really is and where you can contribute and add the most value.” --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner Axon.ai for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. Axon.ai by AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at axon.ai/allin @AxonAdsManager

Charles Koch: When People Lose Meaning, Societies Lose Freedom “ Viktor Frankl, tremendous insight: He says, ‘The problem today is ever more people have the means to live and no meaning to live for.’ So, if you can't find a path to a life of meaning, which comes from finding your gift and using it to succeed by helping others succeed, then you have two choices. You can either choose to go for power or you can go for pleasure. The problem today is when you have a world that is based on power and pleasure, it's a slippery slope to totalitarianism, authoritarianism, and socialism. That's what we're seeing today.” --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner Axon.ai for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. Axon.ai by AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at axon.ai/allin @AxonAdsManager

🚨 ALL-IN INTERVIEW! Friedberg sits down with Charles & Chase Koch: How they built a $150B private empire (0:00) David Friedberg welcomes Charles & Chase Koch (1:04) Koch Industries Overview: Scale, Business Lines & History (2:21) Building the Business: Early Days & Charles Koch Joins (1961) (11:31) Failures, Creative Destruction & Learning from Mistakes (19:22) Culture & Principle-Based Management (33:53) Georgia-Pacific Acquisition & Culture Transformation (56:17) Stand Together: Education Reform & Social Change (1:12:37) AI, Economic Challenges & the Future of Capitalism -------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner Axon.ai for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. Axon.ai by AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at axon.ai/allin @AxonAdsManager

Spencer Pratt: I will empower architects and builders to make LA beautiful again. “ We're going have LA so beautiful. No more of these high-density, SB-79, prison-like structures. We need to bring Art Deco back. All the architects that moved out of here because it was so hard to build, takes eight years, they're going to be moving back, because we're going to speed up building. It's not going to take eight years. I talked to an architect today, one of the most famous architects in the world. He has a crew of 12 architects, they already did all these designs for these buildings and nobody listened to them. They met with Newsom, they met with Bass. Of course I'm like, “Let's do it, send me over the decks.” And then the YIMBY people, they can have all their bike lanes going through the sky, through tunnels. “We need LA to be the most beautiful architecture in the world.” @friedberg @spencerpratt --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner Axon.ai for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. Axon.ai by AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at axon.ai/allin @AxonAdsManager

Copper is ripping. Chamath told you it would. From All-In’s 2026 Prediction Show (Published Jan. 9th): “I will pick copper (as the biggest business winner of 2026). We are still completely underestimating how short we are, in terms of the global demand supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need, again, in the Trump Doctrine view of the world, that is no longer as multilateral as it was, and we need to have unilateral national security. And if you look through that lens, the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper. And the reason is that it is, at least as it stands today, the most useful, cheap, amenable, conductive material that we have. That material manifests in everything from our datacenters, to our chips, to our weapons systems, it's just everywhere. And right now, we are on a path, by 2040, where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed. So I will pick copper.”

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Spencer Pratt on LA’s drastic NGO problem: “They will take $100M and steal it right in your face.” David Friedberg: “Can you explain what goes on with these NGOs? Like, how do NGOs create a system that the more we spend, and in the last 10 years, the City of Los Angeles, I think, has increased homeless spending by 10X, and the homeless population has doubled, and clearly it's gotten a lot worse. What's the role that the NGOs actually play in this?” Spencer Pratt: “First off, when you said homeless is 2x, homeless is 200x. When Mayor Bass in the debate was like, “It's down 17%,” these are the most cooked numbers. Even the RAND Corporation says it's a 30% increase. But they just drive around and they go, “One, two, three, four, five, six.” They're not going in under these encampments, and bridges, and bushes, and unzipping these tents, and going into the sewers. So we don't even know the count. But let me tell you my first experience with NGOs. After the Palisades fire, FireAid, $100 million raised. Every single person I talked to messaging me, “No one's getting this money. No one's seeing a dollar.” I go to Washington, I ask senators to investigate this. We open up a case. Now all of a sudden, FireAid puts out a legal letter to defend themselves. In their own legal letter from the law firm, they say, “Several of these NGOs gave directly to fire victims.” The list for the $100 million is 200+ (NGOs). Google “several.” It's under 10. So even in their defense, they're telling you, and again, I don't believe one of those, 10 gave directly. The people that they said did, they're like, “We gave gift cards.” Who'd you give gift cards to? You don’t think one fire victim, they're messaging me all day long, said, “Hey, I got a $500 gift card.” So that's when I learned firsthand that these NGOs will take, right in your face, $100 million and just steal it.” @friedberg @spencerpratt --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner Axon.ai for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. Axon.ai by AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at axon.ai/allin @AxonAdsManager

Spencer Pratt on why he’s running for LA Mayor: “I’m doing this to fight evil, and evil has taken this beautiful city…” Friedberg: “ You're sitting down with your sons and they're saying, ‘Dad, what did you do to save LA?’ What do you tell them?” Spencer Pratt: “So to my sons, I'm showing them you can fight evil. These people are evil that let every innocent person that pays their taxes feel unsafe on their streets that they pay taxes for. A lot of people don't have money to do things because they pay all their taxes, like me, and then the city and the government fails them. And whether your house burns down or you’ve got a screaming drug addict in front of you, a naked drug addict in front of your kids causing trauma… there's people having literal drug addicts having sex on meth in front of kids. Parents are telling me they have to have their kids glued to an iPad in the backseat of their cars driving them to school. In other communities, they have to walk under these underpasses and walk past this. So I'll be able to tell my sons, thank God America had laws, and your dad said, 'Hey, breaking news, let's enforce them.' And we did it, and it worked, and then people came in with tons of money, and we got businesses booming, more jobs. Hollywood, we’re making even better movies than we've made in 10 years because the independent creative artists are inspired again. They're feeling supported. The vision is so real, and that's my fight. I go back to, if God is burning somebody's house down to fight these people, you're burning my house down, and then you burn my mom's house down, and you have me listening to my crying mom every day for 18 months. I do this to fight evil, and this is evil that has taken this beautiful city” @friedberg @spencerpratt --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner Axon.ai for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. Axon.ai by AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at axon.ai/allin @AxonAdsManager

🚨 BIG INTERVIEW: SPENCER PRATT JOINS ALL-IN David Friedberg sits down with Spencer Pratt to discuss his fight to save Los Angeles. (0:00) Spencer Pratt vs. the Machine (3:01) Inside the Palisades Fire: Drained Reservoirs, No Sirens & Watching His House Burn on His Phone (14:03) Why He's Running for Mayor: FireAid's $100M Scandal & the NGO Corruption Nobody Talks About (28:10) Karen Bass at 20% & the Real State of LA: Crime, Homelessness & a City in Free Fall (38:23) Spencer's Plan to Fix LA: Enforcing Laws, Auditing Everyone & the Billionaires Ready to Rebuild (52:22) Hollywood, LAUSD & Small Business: What It Actually Takes to Make LA #1 Again (56:25) The Permitting Nightmare Killing Small Business & How AI Fixes It Overnight (1:04:22) His 8-Year Vision @friedberg @spencerpratt --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner Axon.ai for making this possible Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. Axon.ai by AppLovin — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at axon.ai/allin @AxonAdsManager

🚨 Friedberg's interview with Spencer Pratt drops at 5pm ET today across all platforms. Unlike CBS, we'll give you the entire conversation, raw and unedited. @spencerpratt @friedberg

David Sacks: “FDA for AI” is fake news, but here’s why it’s making headlines @Jason: “ Who's leading Trump down the path of regulation and creating this AI FDA?” @DavidSacks: “I think there's several things going on here. The first one is, there's a lot of fake news. This whole idea of an FDA for AI, I don't think any senior official supports it. Certainly, I don't think that's the way the president thinks about these issues. He's the most pro-innovation president we've ever had. And the White House Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, just put out a statement last night that I think pretty much shoots this down. Second, there's another thing going on, which is a straw manning of what the Trump administration did on AI in its first year. In the same way that they want to spin this FDA for AI, they're also trying to spin what we did as this completely laissez-faire attitude, where there'd be no regulations whatsoever, nor guardrails. It's a way of criticizing what we did. They're trying to portray it as unsafe. In fact, if you look, on March 20th, the White House released a national AI regulatory framework in which we put out a four-page bulleted list of legislation that we would support. So we have not been against every conceivable regulation or every conceivable law, we just believe that there should be specific solutions to specific problems, as opposed to a giant power grab by Washington that would squash innovation. Point number three is, there is a legitimate thing happening here with, let's call it Mythos or cyber. Within 3-6 months, all the major frontier labs, including Chinese models, will have cyber capabilities. In response to that, we do need there to be a hardening of systems, and we do need there to be a scanning of codebases to find these vulnerabilities and patch them before the hackers do it. Because the hackers will have these capabilities in a matter of months. That's a certainty. So we do need a response to that. Now, my view on what should that response be, first of all, we should want the government and the private sector to work cooperatively, and I think they are. What we should be doing, I think, is getting these tools, Mythos, and then the OpenAI model, and others like it, in the hands of our cybersecurity industry. And by the way, not just the public companies like Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike, although certainly they're two of the most noteworthy, but there's also some incredibly strong startups on the way up. We need to get these tools into their hands as quickly as possible because they're a force multiplier for all the companies out there that aren't that good at cybersecurity, they can use these companies as vendors. And just one last point on this whole thing is, both Anthropic and OpenAI acted responsibly here. No one was trying to release these super powerful models. So in a way, all the people who are saying that we need pre-release approvals for models, they're trying to solve a problem that didn't exist. Yes, we do have this cyber issue, but that is a problem that we will solve over the next six months. What they're trying to do is use that issue to try and create a permanent new infrastructure in Washington. The classic 'never let a crisis go to waste' strategy.”

“ Unless something about their current trajectory changes, Anthropic will be the most powerful monopoly ever created in human history.” - David Sacks asks if Anthropic is just Standard Oil with better PR? “We know that tech markets have a history of consolidating down and turning into either monopolies or duopolies. And if you just look at the revenue right now, there's only two companies making substantial revenue on AI. It's Anthropic and OpenAI. Anthropic is growing at an exponential 10X a year, and if they just do that for 18 more months, they'll be by far the most valuable company in human history, and they'll have unprecedented control over the most important technology of our time. So I don't know what you call that, but it is something to think about. And I guess I do have a thought experiment for you guys, which is, I just want you to think for a second about the case of John D. Rockefeller, who I think is known as probably the most successful, most ruthless monopolist in American history. But he wasn't very good at PR. He was terrible at PR. Everyone sort of recognized how ruthless he is. We've seen movies like There Will Be Blood, which is basically about him. In any event, imagine if John D. Rockefeller was way better at public relations, and instead of calling his company Standard Oil, he called it Safe Oil. Because, as we know, kerosene is dangerous. Their first big product was kerosene. And kerosene can light your house or it can burn it down. And in the wrong hands it can torch a city, or you can use it to make a bomb. So John D., let's say, should have called for the creation of a new government agency to regulate the safety of his product. And they could have done rigorous testing, licensing, common sense regulation. There would've been a very intense debate over safety standards. You know, what should the proper wick thickness be? And should we allow all those dangerous independent refiners, right? And I think people would have gotten so wrapped up in this debate over what constituted safe oil or safe kerosene that they would have missed what was really going on, which is that Rockefeller was building the richest, most powerful monopoly of all time. In fact, people might even have called Rockefeller an effective altruist, because of course, he was so concerned about the safety of his product.”