TM

"Anyone who doesn’t quit their job to play golf and drink after hitting $10M should be put in an insane asylum" Bro there are like 1 to 2 *MILLION* people like that in the United States who still work and it's why America is what it is Only game in town, The Last Country.

Scarcity is going to become the word of the year here very shortly. Americans have been very coddled for the last 80 years in terms of consumerism and its cold comforts and distractions. The real world is about to slap America so hard it may never truly recover.

HF BONUS 101: *with all these payout posts on “revenue”… let me contextualize the multi strats for you JS is its own animal. But the multis (Citadel, Millennium, P72, BAM, Exodus, Schonfeld) all run the same flavor of comp. Siloed pods…eat what you kill payouts can run 12-25% of P&L depending on what your PM negotiated and what platform you’re on. Smaller shops quote 20%+ to pull talent. Sidenote… a lot of these “signing bonuses” you see in articles are actually loans against future comp this can be clawed back… but that’s for another post. stuff people get wrong: it’s NET P&L, not gross. Financing, borrow, Bloomberg, data, salaries, seat costs, overhead… all netted before payout. A pod doing $50M gross might pass through $15M before anyone sees a check the PM controls the splits inside the pod. If the team is on 18% and the PM runs a 6 person book, he decides what everyone gets. No formula. Some are generous. Plenty keep 70%+ and treat analysts as fungible. Biggest variable in your actual comp and nobody talks about it in interviews… get it in writing. Netting across sub sectors is real inside a team…make sure you understand! high water marks are real. Down 8% one year, you make it back before the clock restarts. Some platforms reset HWM if you get rehired elsewhere internally, some don’t. Ask 100%. deferrals. USUALLY 50% of your bonus above some threshold gets deferred 3 years and only vests if you stay. How they keep you from walking after a big year. Leave early, you eat the unvested portion unless your next shop buys you out. IF You lose money in year 2… it gets netted against deferred with no recourse. Tough. the drawdown trigger is the scary part. Most pods have a stop loss, usually 3-5% of budget, sometimes 7-10%. Hit it and you’re done. Pod cut, team fired, capital reallocated. Doesn’t matter how good your 3 year track record is. This is why a 20% payout sounds rich until … yea a senior analyst on a good pod clearing $1-3M in a normal year is realistic. PMs running their own book can do $5-20M+ in a strong year. Top decile PMs at the big shops are printing numbers that would surprise you. Flip side, median PM tenure at these places is 2-3 yrs and a real chunk of pods blow up every cycle (think NFL career length) Overall… everything is negotiable, it’s opaque, clawbacks suck, and a hard way to make an easy living

Billionaire Howard Marks just revealed the one number that guarantees you won't make money in the stock market "JP Morgan published the chart around the end of '24, and it was a scatter diagram showing over the years, if you bought the relationship between the S&P 500 at purchase and the return, the annualized return over the next 10 years" Wall Street has a simple rule: the more expensive stocks are when you buy them, the less money you make over time If you're thinking about buying stocks right now, history says you’re about to make zero profit for a decade.

2027 EPS estimates for SanDisk $SNDK are about to bend backwards in time while still moving parabolically higher:

This is bullish right?

Iran is heavily mining the strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire security assessments have concluded.

Who is going to backstop the debt of this build out, if everyone is going from surplus ➕to deficit ➖@ the same time ⏰ ? Supply & demand always wins 🏆 out in the end…

Fucking beatdown. I hope Embiid comes back for the rest of the series and we just shove them in 4. This team is the best

because we are in the second great academia exodus/ brain drain or of our time the first one started in the 90s when all the smartest people started going into finance the second one just began. now everyone is running to the AI labs