Craig Thorburn

Hey Grok. How much electricity was used to produce all of the aluminum made in Canada and shipped to the United States in 2024? How many Hoover Dam equivalents would be required to produce that amount of electricity? Answer: The amount of aluminum produced in Canada and shipped to the United States in 2024 was approximately 2.7 million metric tonnes. Primary aluminum production is highly electricity-intensive. Based on multiple sources, the average electricity consumption is around 15,000 kWh per metric tonne of primary aluminum. To calculate the total electricity used: - 2,700,000 tonnes × 15,000 kWh/tonne = 40,500,000,000 kWh (or 40.5 TWh). The Hoover Dam generates an average of about 4.2 billion kWh (or 4.2 TWh) of electricity annually. To find the number of Hoover Dam equivalents: - 40.5 TWh ÷ 4.2 TWh ≈ 9.6 (or roughly 10 Hoover Dam equivalents).

Fascinating - tariffs and high aluminum prices don’t seem to be enough to get US idled production back online, as their biggest cost and best value is in their power contracts, which data centres are buying up. Looks like arbitrage for electricity. Bodes well for QC.

@ExnerPirot Should be an excellent Summit.

I'm pleased to be co-chairing the 2026 Energy Security Summit where we will reflect on the evolving global threat landscape, Canada’s role in supporting global energy security, and the technologies critical to protecting and strengthening domestic energy production and delivery systems. Informed by industry, public safety and policy perspectives, we've developed a top notch agenda to discuss positioning Canada for this geopolitical era. You can join us in Ottawa, March 10-11 by registering at the link below. na.eventscloud.com/website/87036/…

@ExnerPirot I would humbly suggest that Ms. Exner-Pirot's thoughtful and effective advocacy on Canada's resource and agricultural sectors over many years helped create the policy environment that contributed in a material way to these successes. Well done.

Record oil, natural gas, uranium and wheat production. Highest gold sales ever. New canola yield records. Major regulatory reform. 2025 was a very good year for Canadian commodities, here are my top stories 🎉/1

@ExnerPirot @SteveSaretsky @RichardDias_CFA Great insights. Well worth a listen.

I joined the guys over at the Loonie Hour this week for my third appearance on their podcast! We talked about the MOU, pipelines, ports and why I’m bullish on commodities 📈 youtu.be/6YVOK9sZ_zQ

According to Grok 3 DeepSearch, if the US wanted to displace all of the aluminum that was imported from Canada and make that aluminum in the US instead, using 2024 production figures as a baseline, the electricity required would be the equivalent of 9 Hoover Dams. "Key Points It seems likely that in 2024, Canada exported about 2.7 million metric tons of aluminum to the US, based on trade data. Research suggests that producing this amount required around 133 million GJ of electricity, using North American energy efficiency standards. The evidence leans toward needing about 9 Hoover Dam equivalents to generate this electricity annually in the US, considering typical production rates. Amount of Aluminum Exported In 2024, Canada likely exported approximately 2.7 million metric tons of primary aluminum to the US, according to trade statistics from the Aluminium Association of Canada Canadian Aluminum: What Would Cutting it Cost the U.S.. This figure reflects the significant role Canada plays in supplying the US aluminum market, accounting for over half of US aluminum consumption. Electricity Required for Production To produce 2.7 million metric tons of aluminum, the electricity required is estimated at around 133 million GJ. This calculation uses an energy consumption rate of about 13,680 kWh per ton for North American primary aluminum smelting, as reported by the International Aluminium Institute Primary Aluminium Smelting Power Consumption. This efficiency is partly due to Canada's use of hydroelectric power, which is more energy-efficient compared to other regions. Hoover Dam Equivalents If this aluminum were produced in the US, it would require about 9 Hoover Dam equivalents to generate the necessary electricity annually. The Hoover Dam produces an average of 4.2 billion kWh per year, or about 15.12 million GJ, based on historical data from the Bureau of Reclamation Hoover Dam. Dividing the total electricity need (133 million GJ) by the dam's annual output (15.12 million GJ) results in approximately 8.8, rounding to 9 for simplicity. An unexpected detail is that producing aluminum in the US might require more electricity due to potentially less efficient energy sources, which could increase the number of dams needed, though current estimates suggest 9 is reasonable."

UHN selected as Canadian site for CAN-PRIME study, a clinical trial involving Neuralink. This follows on from Health Canada's approvalof the launch of Neuralink's first clinical trial in Canada aimed at improving the lives of those with quadriplegia due to ALS or SCI. It is cutting edge innovation like this that has put UHN on the global top 10 hospital list. There is no better place you could make your donations to fund the best in Canada, the best in the world. buff.ly/3B47i1a @uhn @neuralink @elonmusk #uhnited

And then they do... Northvolt files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the United States... northvolt.com/articles/chapt…

When governments rather than markets choose winners, things often go astray.

This is what Grok 2 has to say about public perceptions in recent months of Deutsche Bahn’s efficiency. Perhaps its performance in Ontario will be better. Recent public perception of Deutsche Bahn's (DB) efficiency by Germans has been largely critical, as reflected in various discussions and sentiments expressed both in traditional media and on social platforms like X: - **Punctuality and Reliability**: There's a widespread sentiment that DB's punctuality has deteriorated. For instance, only 64% of long-distance trains were on time in 2023, which has become a point of frustration and even international embarrassment during events like Euro 2024. This has led to a perception that timetables are now merely "estimated" rather than reliable schedules, indicating a loss of control over the scheduling system. - **Infrastructure and Investment**: There's a consensus that the issues stem from long-term underinvestment in rail infrastructure. Germans see this as a neglect of what was once a symbol of national pride and efficiency. Despite increased government investment recently, the feeling is that it's not enough, or it's not effectively utilized due to bureaucratic inefficiencies or misallocation of funds. - **Public and Political Reaction**: Social media and news outlets have captured the frustration of the public, with some users on platforms like X highlighting frequent delays, technical issues, and the general decline of service quality. Political groups and figures have also seized on this, using DB's troubles as a metaphor for broader governmental or administrative failures. - **Cultural Impact**: The inefficiency of DB has become something of a cultural touchpoint, often discussed with a mix of humor and exasperation. The notion that Germany, known for its engineering and punctuality, can't manage its rail system effectively has led to both internal critique and external mockery. - **Economic and Structural Critique**: There's a discussion around the structural issues within DB, with calls for significant reforms. Critics argue for a need to overhaul DB's complex hybrid model of public ownership with market competition elements, suggesting that this structure contributes to inefficiency. - **Hope for Improvement**: Despite the criticism, there's an underlying hope or expectation for improvement, especially with the government's push towards more sustainable transport solutions. However, there's skepticism about whether increased funding alone, without systemic change, will resolve the deep-seated issues. Overall, the public perception in recent months has been one of disappointment and frustration with Deutsche Bahn, contrasting sharply with the historical reputation of German efficiency. This sentiment is coupled with a call for substantial structural reforms and more effective investments to restore the rail system to its former glory.

A simple test for Lyme disease with results in 20 minutes using @ai developed at @UCLA. This looks like a gamechanger.

I think that lawyers will use a lot of general purpose AI tools for things that are not pure legal drafting at least at the outset. Client prospecting, keeping current with developments in client industries and the like. There is a huge gap still in the reliability of and confidence in even the best AI tools for pure legal work.

@ThorburnToronto @X Hi Craig, how do you think this will impact the role of real-time data in legal tech? Do you think that this will be the differentiating factor in all these AI tech startups that plan on helping lawyers with research, doc management, litigation mock trials etc.?

I am finding that #GROK2 is far superior to #Chat_GPT's GPT-4o in picking up material recent information. Access to recent news on @X appears to be of critical importance. Night and day in fact.

.@doyne_farmer has made #ComplexityEconomics highly approachable for traditional economists and non-economists alike in this brilliant overview of the field. The promise of a new approach to economics that allows complex systems such as macroeconomics, financial markets and international trade to be better understood and predicted using verified and reproducible techniques at a time of dynamic and disruptive change that is challenging people, industries and governments everywhere in the world is a breath of fresh air. If you are a person of means or a foundation looking to support innovative research that could make an enormous impact on the future, you should look at this work carefully. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED. @sfiscience

@goose_lane @ltrethew ????

@ThorburnToronto @ltrethew Hello @ThorburnToronto, unfortunately the audiobook is not available in Canada at this time.

The evidence is clear.

@KiwiPMI Negotiations will always be in large part art not science. But first drafts, timetables, step plans and minor documents will become much easier and faster to create. The tool will likely not be Bard, which has a more general application, but other legally-focused AI options.

@ThorburnToronto Legit question: given your practice is substantially a negotiated outcome, how significant an in-road can AI really make into M&A, PE..? LPA drafting I get but negotiated individual clauses seems a reach.

Great insights here about Google’s Bard. Well worth a read.

Cold. Hard. Reality. Lucid and convincing article on Canadian resource development, geopolitical imperatives and prosperity. By Heather @ExnerPirot, quickly becoming Canada’s leading voice in the field.