Bama Fan
3.2K posts


@MattHayesCFB One year Matt..one year. And the bottom 2/3s of the SEC is still better.
English

Still don’t think the Big Ten has passed the SEC?
The NFL Draft will make it undeniable. usatoday.com/story/sports/n…
English

Bama Fan retweetledi

Coach Tuberville gonna occupy the Strip in Tuscaloosa with the Alabama National Guard when he is governor...
Ryan Phillips@JournoRyan
Tuscaloosa City Council President Kip Tyner regarding The Strip:
English
Bama Fan retweetledi
Bama Fan retweetledi
Bama Fan retweetledi

@bamaperspective You are correct. I dont bet anymore but I get the philosophy.
English

Definitely need to start 5-0. But when you're being predictive, like from a betting standpoint, for best accuracy, you don't say, "hmm, win, win, win, loss, win..."
You say, OK, favored by X points, favored by Y points ..." and that translates into X% probability of a win. 85% probability of a win = 0.85 wins. And then you add them together.
For example, SP+ has us as a 6.1-point favorite on a neutral over South Carolina. But it's a home game, which usually adds 3.5 or 4 points to the line for us. So let's say it's 9.5 or 10 points.
Well, 10-point dogs win outright about 22.5% of the time in college football. DeBoer has lost four times as a double-digit favorite in two seasons.
In reality, you'll win (1 win) or lose (0 wins). But probabilistically, the South Carolina game should be roughly 0.78 wins, not 1.0 wins. Maybe 22 times out of 100 you lose it.
English

Bama fans freaked out about this. But honestly, it's within the realm of possibility.
To be clear, 9-3 or 8-4 are much likelier results. The current win total in the betting market is 8.5 slightly juiced to the over.
7-5 would have been certifiably insane (if genuine) three years ago. It's still a lower-than-market-consensus projection. For sure. But it's not certifiable like people are acting.
A lot is on the table with some big question marks this season.
I'd probably put the likelihood of record in order:
9-3
8-4
10-2
7-5
11-1
7-5 is close to the edge of feasible but not exactly past it.
Would involve a much worse record in one-possession games + other SEC programs living up to/exceeding expectations + either more injuries or the OL/QB/RB question marks, and the run defense, not getting answered well.
Connor Turner@ConnManATL
My WAY too early predictions for the 2026 Alabama Crimson Tide! What do you guys think?
English

@bamaperspective Could we go 8-4..yep. but that means we repeat the same mistakes of the last 2 years because we should start 5-0. Tennessee has more questions. LsU can go in 2 directions. We have TAM at home.
English

@TideMaster2024 Again, the season win total betting market is 8.5.
Pair that with huge question marks at QB, OL, RB and run defense and a very tough schedule.
The consensus sharp market does not agree.
English






















