@AdamMancini4 Great call on overnight price action! Dip to 5328 and reclaim 5338-42 zone. Multiple levels up! Couldn’t have gotten any more precised
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Tien
106 posts
For days, I've talked about 5338-42 in #ES_F: Its the largest, trappiest battleground in the market now. It was my rally target yesterday, tested 4x this week, now here for 21hrs. Don't overtrade here
5338-42 must reclaim to retest 5351, 5362, 5378. 5328 fails, 5308-10 next
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday, my target in #ES_F was 5338-42, and after the largest green day of 2024, we hit. Monster battleground/trap zone, tested 4x this week, and we've spent 20hrs here, popping to 5370s Plan today: 5338-42 (weaker), 5328=supports. Keeps 5361, 5378+ live. Dip 5308-10 <5328
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Yesterday, the 5191 reclaim setup triggered long and as posted in 4pm newsletter, 5274, 5300, 5338 were targets. We made it 5300. Expect choppy, complex vol today. 60 point swing norm
No change. 5230=Support, just tested, weak now. Must hold to 5252+ live. 5230 fails, dip 5191
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After Mondays historic sell, yesterday saw the 1st short squeeze with 5191 long trigger. I wrote in my 4pm newsletter I was looking for 5252, 5274, 5300, 5338 and clipped 5300 then dipped Plan today: 5252, 5230=supports. Keeps 5274, 5300, 5338 live. 5230 fails, retest 5191
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@AdamMancini4 Thanks, Adam. The day is done. Hope you have a good rest of your Friday
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@Tien_1000 Not a trade I took but thats the right idea. When price is melting down like that you don't want to be knife catching at all and want to wait for some type of reaction at the zone. I had 5378 as a major support but would never knife catch it under any circumstance
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There's 5400 next target down in #ES_F and incredible follow through here. As posted yesterday, 5447-50 was the final support before breakdown to 5414, 5400 targets. It triggered last evening, and down we went. 5378 was next, incoming.
5368, 5343 below. 5400 must clear to pop
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Strong follow through in #ES_F. 5447-50 was key support. I posted it was final support before breakdown to 5414 and after testing 12x last evening, it cracked, triggering to 5414 Plan today: Same as yesterday. Pop spot, but Bears control until 5448-50 reclaims. 5400, 5378 below
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@AdamMancini4 FDB of 5482 and yesterday low for the win. One and done. Have a good rest of your day Adam
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The coiling continues in #ES_F and great overnight follow through. As written here /in newsletter, 5482 was must hold support for the dip. We held it overnight for the *3rd time*, and rallied
Plan today: No change. 5502=support. Keeps 5519, 5532+ live. 5502 fails, retest 5482
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@AdamMancini4 I was really hoping for the FBD but this worked out great as well
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@Tien_1000 I took it, was nice and early in the evening so not an issue for me
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Yesterday morning, #ES_F flushed 5460, and put in a failed breakdown (my core edge) triggering a 75 point short squeeze. Overnight, we got the same trigger again. Basing.
Plan today: 5474, 5457=supports. As long as above, we push 5498 trgt 1, 5511, 5519+. If 57 fails, see 5438
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Closing update: Full round trip day in #ES_F. 5460 triggered longs this morning, and we got a 75 point leg that trigger. Now, back to square 1. 5457=overnight support, 5474 reclaim triggers back up. Newsletter out soon talking entries tonight/tomorrow tradecompanion.substack.com
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@AdamMancini4 That was a beauty of a break down trade! Was already done from 2 longs, but nice move. Excited to not be longing near ATH all the time hahaha
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5630 was todays sell trigger in #ES_F as posted, and after 2 tests yesterday, it was weak as posted. 5619, then 5611 were sell targets once it failed. 5619, hit, 5611, on the way. Below there, we continue to 5598.
Things fairly simple here, and bears control until 5630 reclaims
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday #ES_F saw a rare trend leg down. 5646, then 5630 were targets and after tagging 5630, we've been chopping. Don't overtrade, 5630-5650=noise. No change, 5646, 5630-34 (weak) must hold to keep relief pop to 57, 5666-68 live. If 5630 fails, leg to 5619, 5611 starts direct
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@AdamMancini4 Clean FBD set up! Another early day finish, managing runners now.
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Clean follow through in #ES_F following the PPI failed breakdown of 5630 key support. 5647 was first target up as posted, and we just hit it. Lock in gains here, leave a risk free runner to work. Do not be greedy ever with gains.
5658, 5668-72 IF ES wants. Dip<5630 (weak now)
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Quick PPI reaction & flush of 5630 key support/reclaim to end up at square 1 in #ES_F. After yesterdays 1st short at 5670 in 2 weeks, we are now building a choppy base since 2pm ystd No change. 5630 must hold (weak now). Keeps 5647, 5658, 5668-72 live. Dip to 5624, 5611 below
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@AdamMancini4 @hutchins_t66 It was fast and it actually gave me a better bid lower haha!
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@hutchins_t66 @Tien_1000 Very nice failed breakdown, I didn't add either though. Its too fast right after CPI
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First CPI reaction in the books and incredibly, the long from 5506 last Tuesday is still going, with no dip to trail out. I provided 3 upside targets this morning: 5690 (hit), 5696 (hit), 5710 (2 points off).
Tighten stops. 5717, 5725 if #ES_F wants. We sell only if 5670 fails
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Its been a historic run in #ES_F, +185 points from July 2nd 5506 long, with 0 dip to trigger stops. CPI 830, size way down now, expect noise for 1st 30mins. Anything can happen Plan: 5670-72=support. Must hold/recover to keep 5690, 5696, 5710+ live. 5670 fails, dip 5660, 5638-42
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@AdamMancini4 @TradingNPoker Why 5511? I opted for 5519 and then 5527. I thought 5511 was too little for a decent RR
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@TradingNPoker Got a good two level move out of it! 5511 first profit take, 5519 second
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Good bounce. 5503-06 was support with 5519 back-test point & here now now in #ES_F. For those who took this long, *lock in partials here/leave runners*. This will be test #18 of the 5519 magnet, from below this time
No change, 19 must reclaim to see 5532+. 5503 fails, 5492 next
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
This last week has been all about 1 level: 5519 in #ES_F, which paid out over 150 points cumulatively. Last night, we tested it for 16th time, bounced 7 points, then lost it Plan today: 5503-06=support with 5519 backtest point. Must reclaim to bottom. 5503 fails, dip 5492
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@AdamMancini4 @EyeMordor @Tastytaco599 That's where I initially entered as well, around 14. Took a small portion off into 19/20, then took a little more around RTH Friday closing price
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@EyeMordor @Tastytaco599 Entering at 14 was the right approach here because you just have to bet on it making to 19 first up for the original profit take. Was also a fairly textbook failed breakdown (FBD of prior days lows). To see sustained follow through, the 19 would have to reclaim obviously
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Ultra messy action in #ES_F. 5519 remains only lvl that matters & we have tested and/or lost it an incredible 14 times. After a good 15 point flush, we are (no shock) back. Dont overtrade
19 must reclaim to resume up to 27, 39+. To see another hard flush now, today's low must go
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After an incredible 14 tests (almost unheard of), the 5519 finally cracked in #ES_F. As posted, "Dip <5519", and dip we did. 5511 was 1st down, hit. 5503, 5494 are next. 5519 is now resistance, and in order to resume any upside, that level has to reclaim (trigger failed break)
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After an incredible 14 tests (almost unheard of), the 5519 finally cracked in #ES_F. As posted, "Dip <5519", and dip we did. 5511 was 1st down, hit. 5503, 5494 are next.
5519 is now resistance, and in order to resume any upside, that level has to reclaim (trigger failed break)
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
As posted 5519-5539=pure chop now with 5527 support. We just tagged 5539 1st up exactly. This entire range is pure chop now & after 13 tests of the 5519 lvl, #ES_F just waiting on any catalyst to break this tight coil. Dont overtrade No change. 5539, 5552, 5560 live. Dip < 5519
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@AdamMancini4 Trade the breakdown short for 1 level. Closed at BE, and then the 41 reclaim. What a good Friday. Hope you're well in profit with the reclaim!
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Standard trappy data reaction (#ES_F is getting traders primed for CPI and FOMC next week, but it will be 10x more complex and trappy). I posted 5341 had to reclaim to resume up, and good 10 point pop so far. Lock in gains lvl to lvl
5363, 5372 if ES wants it. We sell again<5341
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Very typical data reaction in #ES_f continues to play out. We initially spiked to 5380 1st level up to the tick, sold to 5341 support, bounced, I posted it was weak now, and we flushed it on second test. 5323, 5312-15 were sell trgets, en route. Must reclaim 5341 now to rally
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@AdamMancini4 It wasn't in the trading plan, but I took the breakdown short of 5295. Working well so far
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Cooloff underway following Friday's monster squeeze in #ES_F. 5295 was support, held twice once for a bounce to 5311 target, then became weaker as posted.
Failure triggered down to 5282, 5272-65 (major) also as posted, just hit 5282. Bulls only regain control when 5295 reclaims
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Precise levels as we resume messy price discovery following Friday's squeeze in #ES_F. Don't overtrade. 5311 was today's 1st target, with 5295 support. We hit 5311, dipped to 5295, bounced. 5295 must hold (weaker now) to keep 5317, 5326 live. 95 fails, healthy dip to 5282, 5272
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@EpicCharting @franek_to Will be a no-trade day for me unless we can flush hard to 35
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Patience paid in #ES_F. As posted non-stop, plan was as long as 5311 held on Nvidia, we rally to 5345, then breakout 5361+. We dipped to 5311 after Nvidia earnings, rallied to 5345, then broke out 5361
Plan today: Hold runners. 5375, 5396 next. 5355, 5346 (breakout lvl)=support
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Note: This followed the newsletter trajectory nicely where I posted bulls needed to hold 5311 on any Nvidia dips, which would target 5345. We dipped to 5311, then rallied to 5345. The breakout begins only if we can clear this now. Do not be greedy with gains.
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@AdamMancini4 @woodropolis1 Oh wow. I got long at 53 as well, but thinking I was chasing. But it was a buffer with reclaiming 48-50 zone. Though I was a bit nervous since stop was far below
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@woodropolis1 That's basically where I got long as well. To me its too risky to take below that level, even though the daily low reclaimed. That big 48 level would still be above there
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Its been an incredible run, now +55 points off the 5048 failed breakdown, and we are arriving at 5102 target in #ES_F, which was the final as provided at 8am. We have Apple earnings 430PM, do not be greedy with profits here, let small runner work
5120, 5136 next. Same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Great follow through in #ES_F. 5048 was key support today (held 8x yesterday), with 5077-82, 5092, 5102+ targets. After a textbook failed breakdown of it this morning, we are off. 5077-82 1st target hit, now coming into 5092. Lock in. 5102 next, then onto 5126-36 if ES wants
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@AdamMancini4 Hi Adam. Are you seeing ES is building an intraday triangle with yesterday high and low? Or do I just have confirmation bias?
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Extremely precise technicals today as we fill out the range as posted in #ES_F. 5121-5150=the chop range with 5136 mid-pivot. We dipped to 5120.5 low of day, bounced. Now coming into 5136 first target. 5150 above.
5121 must hold now (weaker) or we flush to those lower supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Rangebound technicals continue in #ES_F as we fill out that 5121-5150 chop range as posted 30 mins ago, and we just dipped down to 5121 support exactly and bounced. No changes. 5121 must hold (fast) to work back to 5136 5150. We sell 5116, 5095 if it caves, it is getting weaker
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@AdamMancini4 @serpico_claudio @ashwagamma I was a little hesitant on this as well since i was waiting for a FBD. Waited a little longer than usual and then bid on the second time it touched 21. Still wasn’t as completely comfortable, but it worked out well
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@serpico_claudio @ashwagamma I said in the newsletter it likely has one test left in it. Just because it was a major support for me, and was only tested once yesterday so likely good for a second
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