@AdamMancini4 @Fideon005 Hi Adam, there is where I most struggle. It was already at 6907 when I saw it (trading on CET), so could not judge if I should have considered as 1st level hit or hope it would make it to the 2nd level
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Claudio Serpico
281 posts
@Fideon005 You don't buy 93, you buy when that 3:15PM low flushes and recovers. Went nowhere for hours after so one had a multi-hour window to enter
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Always good to start the day with a target hit in #ES_F - there's 6925. Yesterday t6832 Failed Breakdown got us long. Targets were 6878, 6909, 6925. Just hit 6925 which has been res all week
Plan today: Just ride runner now 0 to do. 6935, 6953 next slate. 6909, 6893=supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
All the action packed into this morning & now nothing to do but hold runner as #ES_F digests the squeeze. 6832 Failed Breakdown was long trigger given. Target slate were 6867 (hit), 6878 (hit), 6909 (hit), 6925 (next). Ideally, bulls want to hold 6867-70 if we get any retrace
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@AdamMancini4 Adam, what do you think about the small FDB we got before the opening? It was a 18 point minimum, it got accepted for 30 min or so…. but I got stopped out by the deeper trap.
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Yesterday we had a huge rally in #ES_F: 6808 Failed Breakdown was trigger with 6870, 6893, 6908 targets. We hit 6904 & dipped. Now, time to digest that move
I posted 7:30AM watch traps of 76. We trapped it, ran to 6893 1st target, dipped. 6908, 6923 remain above. Same downsides
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Perfect trade in #ES_F. Trigger yesterday was 6808 Failed Breakdown. Targets was 6870 (hit). At the close, I posted 6893, then 6908 were next. We hit 6904 Plan today: Ride runner/wait for next bear trap. 6876 (watch traps), 6857=supports. 6893, 6907, 6923-26 next. Sell<57 to 42
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@AdamMancini4 Adam, a question: when after a FBD we get the pricing back-testing the previous low, how we could say if this is acceptance of the second type or the bounce fizzling?
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Theres 6725 target hit to wrap up. I warned all day #ES_F was bull flagging. 6693 was support given 8am. We swept it, recovered. My targets were 6704, 6708-14 mains. Both hit. 6719, 6725 bonus. Both hit. Ride that runner now. 6735, 6759 above
Newsletter out soon with new entries
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's 6719 1st bonus target hit in #ES_F. 6693 was support today posted 8am, with 6704, 6708-14 main targets. We swept 6693, recovered, hit 6704, 6708-14. Spent hours there. I warned to hold runners for 6719, 6725+. Just hit 19. 6725 above. Bull flagging as posted all day
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@EyeMordor @AdamMancini4 @jalepool @dbesanti Have exactly the same question, issue. If the stop is a few points below the lowest low, it’s always 12/15 points away. Some time I cut it before to not take a full loss everytime, but often it’s the wrong choice
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@AdamMancini4 @jalepool @dbesanti Great discussion guys! I have similar issue. Adam - how do u decide to cut an FBD for less than a full loss? (which is often 10-15 pts, if stop is a few pts below lowest low). You often say the trade hasn’t done anything wrong u til that’s violated
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Since May 1, I had 1 target in #ES_F: 5519-resistance of a 3 month "megaphone". On June 12, it hit. This week, we broke out & backtested to the tick. Decision time
Plan Next Week: As long as 5519 keeps hold, 5560's next. Dip, then breakout 5620+. 5519 fails; short to 5501, 5460
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@AdamMancini4 @federalpeace Would it be possible to add a few of this nuances in your Methodology Section? I think it might help a lot!
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@federalpeace There is alot of nuance but the best thing is just to wait and not rush. usually if price is going to backtest a level and head down, it occurs fairly quickly on the first touch. If we touch the zone and that doesnt happen and price instead glues here, its a good sign itll break
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Standard trappy data reaction (#ES_F is getting traders primed for CPI and FOMC next week, but it will be 10x more complex and trappy). I posted 5341 had to reclaim to resume up, and good 10 point pop so far. Lock in gains lvl to lvl
5363, 5372 if ES wants it. We sell again<5341
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Very typical data reaction in #ES_f continues to play out. We initially spiked to 5380 1st level up to the tick, sold to 5341 support, bounced, I posted it was weak now, and we flushed it on second test. 5323, 5312-15 were sell trgets, en route. Must reclaim 5341 now to rally
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@serpico_claudio @TxTrader10 Doesnt meet any of the 4 failed breakdown criteria, there has to something to break down and recover, a major low, a cluster of lows, some sort of significant low, similar to the diagram in this below chart. Can't be a failed breakdown with that x.com/AdamMancini4/s…
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
As we saw Friday afternoon, a fundamental market tendency is from failed moves, come fast moves. Markets by their nature flush levels, trap traders offside, then reverse. Trading after the traps - on reclaims - weaponizes it in your favor. Trade with, not against institutions
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With #ES_F dipping, its key remember why. Not only did we rally 105 points in a couple hours Friday afternoon, we also backtested the 5305 zone which was the massive back half of May resistance zone + resistance of a week long flag.
Dip continues until a res reclaims now 5272
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@AdamMancini4 @TxTrader10 Yep, I also thought that also a flush under a major level and its reclaim could have been considered a FBD. Not a high quality one, but still one
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@TxTrader10 It wouldn't, remember failed breakdowns have 4 criteria as discussed in my method section. There has to be a significant low or cluster of lows that flushes and reclaims. Hasn't been one since Friday afternoon
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@AdamMancini4 @BrianMelcher24 @Enbeekay I then assume you entered at 44 or so, ca. 15 points above the minimum. You mention FBDs are valid as long as the lowest low holds and the first target not reached. How to make a good guess of the 1st target?
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@BrianMelcher24 @Enbeekay I actually got in at around 730AM...remember failed breakdowns valid as long as the lowest hold holds
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Perfect follow through. Plan today was as long as above 5238-41 (which put in a clean failed breakdown ~6am), 5259, then 5272 were targets. We hit 5272 exact. Now, time for profit protection all day
Any more is bonus, just hold runners. 5257, 5238-42=supports. 5294, 5302 next
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Quick work on a Friday in #ES_F. 5238-41 was support as posted, with 5258 being first target, and we just hit it. If long, lock in profits here, let a runner work all day. No greed on a Friday, protect mental capital. 5272, then 5295, 5302. We dip only if 5238-41 fails from here
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@AdamMancini4 After this slow grind up, would you consider 5317 a spot for short still?
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Technicals continue to respect in #ES_F. 5273 was my sell target/bounce zone yesterday (back-tests May 14th breakout) and we bounced there. 5294 was today's support & we held to 5308 1st target
Its weaker now. Bulls must hold to keep 5308, 5317 live. Fails, we dip 5284, 5265
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Precise technicals to start in #ES_F. Yesterday, 5273 was my sell target/bounce zone (backtests the CPI breakout), we held 5273 &rallied to targets. Today, 5294 was support, we just dipped 5294 exact and bounced 10 5308, 5317 next (decision point). 5294 fails now, dip 5284, 5265
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@AdamMancini4 I tried a long on pattern support at 5311, but didn’t work out.
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Today (and all week) 5322 has been key support as posted and after multiple tests this week (including 3 today), finally cracked. 5311 was 1st support below, here now.
Bulls can reclaim 5322 *fast* here (15mins, this lvl is weak now), 5294, 5273 upcoming next and we can dip
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After running to 5361+ target, and a strong rejection, #ES_F is now back to chop. Don't overtrade. 5322 was support as posted, with 5335 resistance, and ES agrees, defending 22 and now basing at 5335 for 2hrs. Bulls must keep defending 5322, or we re-test 5311 last chance lvl
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@AdamMancini4 @EpicCharting @paigeclay0 You mean the previous bounce at 5250? Can you say a bit more, it’s vey useful to have your reading of the price action (not for trading it real time, but for learning)
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@EpicCharting @paigeclay0 Just wait long enough one will come! Bidding the first support 10 point support down after a 290 rally just doesn't cut it for me, it could certainly work but not something that gets me excited and don't like how we've already bounced here
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We are now 6 green days in a row as we continue the breakout of the 1 month bull flag in #ES_F. 5245, 5260s were next up as posted 4pm ystd, hit overnight. Nothing to do but ride runners until we get a dip. All bonus
5245=support to keep 5262, 5268-72 live. We micro dip <5245
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Incredible follow through continues in #ES_F. Wednesday was a flagging day to setup the next leg & as posted, nothing to do but keep riding those runners. 5245, 5260s were next up. 5245, hit, 5260s, hit Plan today: All bonus now. 5245=support to keep 5268-72 live. Mini-dip below
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@AdamMancini4 @crossing_roads1 It was already tested once. I didn’t buy the level since I thought it was safer to wait for a FBD. Still tricky to evaluate when to buy it direct or when to wait for a FBD
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@crossing_roads1 Best thing to do is just buy 5121 support or a couple points above
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Rangebound technicals continue in #ES_F as we fill out that 5121-5150 chop range as posted 30 mins ago, and we just dipped down to 5121 support exactly and bounced.
No changes. 5121 must hold (fast) to work back to 5136 5150. We sell 5116, 5095 if it caves, it is getting weaker
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday was slow as #ES_F consolidates last weeks 130 point rally. Finally at 3pm, we got a setup: Putting in a textbook failed breakdown long trigger under 5127, then running to 5150 target Plan today: 5121-50=chop, 5136 midpivot. dont overtrade. Sets up 5160, 5176. Sell<5121
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@AdamMancini4 @ashwagamma How do you “guess” that it might have 1 test left in it? By the size and the speed of the reaction at the level?
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@ashwagamma Was contemplating that one (always hard to write these 12hrs in advance as I can't see the action) but the 21 looked as if it had 1 test left in it. Maybe 2 if bulls are lucky but not one I'd buy directly anymore
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Extremely precise technicals today as we fill out the range as posted in #ES_F. 5121-5150=the chop range with 5136 mid-pivot. We dipped to 5120.5 low of day, bounced. Now coming into 5136 first target. 5150 above.
5121 must hold now (weaker) or we flush to those lower supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Rangebound technicals continue in #ES_F as we fill out that 5121-5150 chop range as posted 30 mins ago, and we just dipped down to 5121 support exactly and bounced. No changes. 5121 must hold (fast) to work back to 5136 5150. We sell 5116, 5095 if it caves, it is getting weaker
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@AdamMancini4 @ruiqiwt I took the reclaim of 5020 at the 3rd test after it almost touched 5013. But I was stopped out on the subsequent dip. Do you think it was a bad entry?
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Good failed breakdown in #ES_F: 5020 was the key level as posted today, ES still agrees. It tested twice this morning and bounced, flushed on the third, reclaimed. Its a chop day today, do not over-trade, do not be greedy with profits
Same lvls: 5032, 5044-46 as long as 20 holds
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Slow start to the week in #ES_F. 5020 was key support today as posted. It held on 1st test for 12 points (making it weaker), held on 2nd for 12 points, finally failed on 3rd. 5013 (here) 4996-5000 next down. Must hold and reclaim 5020 now to rally. 4996 fails, we retest lows
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@AdamMancini4 @Planning_Prof What’s an hidden bearish divergence? I thought it was price making a higher high, with a lower high in RSI, but it’s not the case here
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@Planning_Prof There is a hidden bearish divergence on the 1hr, but none on the 4hr. What basically means is what we are seeing - there are short term headwinds (the dip we are getting now) but higher time frames are healthier
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Today 1st target in #ES_F and profit take level was 5208 (continuation from the 5162 reclaim setup on Friday). We hit the zone, based for 1hr, and first dip of the day underway.
No changes from this morning: 5181-77=support. Must hold, or we revisit 5165 again. Hard sell under
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Perfect follow through as we continue the "post-war" squeeze in #ES_F. 5162 reclaim triggered longs back into control as posted. 5208 was today's first target, hit. Remember, no greed: Lock in gains, let a runner go. 5218 was next. Big resistance. base out/dip, then 5228-30+
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@AdamMancini4 @RaisesQuestions @Anthony_IV @nch1232 @KeishaBIM @ike4400 How do you evaluate momentum?
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@RaisesQuestions @Anthony_IV @nch1232 @KeishaBIM @ike4400 I will always use the context and momentum to determine which option I choose, but there is no wrong option. Both are fine
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Headline risk weekend: Mostly nullified now, but key to remember still: If markets were easy as trading the obvious headlines/news/data everyone else sees, everyone would be rich. Opposite is the case, and those doing so get trapped. Trade price/your process, blinders to the rest
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@AdamMancini4 @ashwagamma Still trying to learn what is a reclaim and what is just a liquidity grab above
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@AdamMancini4 @ashwagamma Overnight there was a first bounce, then the FBD. How confident would you have been on the last reclaim? I thought that after a bounce, and a FBD, the level is more prone to BDs, so I didn’t take the long.
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The 5192 reclaim setup continues paying over and over in #ES_F. At 8am, my plan was long 5192 reclaim, and we got to 5219 target #2. I posted 1hr ago 5192 reclaim triggers up, and paid for 10 points
No changes. 5207, 5219, 5230 as long as 5192 defends. Take profits lvl to lvl
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Last two days have been a dream market for lvl to lvl day traders. 5192 has been the battleground, with reclaim triggering longs in #ES_F as posted to 5207, 5219, 5230 targets. We got to 5219 2nd profit take, then dip Same drill: 5192 must reclaim to trigger up. 5184, 5171 below
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@AdamMancini4 @ShamrockSeven7 To be honest I hesitated, I saw it at 5196 but it was already 22 points up from the low, so I was doubtful. Still need to learn a lot…..
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@ShamrockSeven7 It was definitely possible to enter on and I did. Not likely on the traditional failed breakdown entry though unless you were really ready to go (which would be 5177-5182). The 5192 reclaim though was fine and I was able to get in above there 5196 or so
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Quick work on this today in #ES_F. I posted 30 minutes ago that setup today was bulls must reclaim 5192 to rally to 5207+. We reclaimed 5192, and just hit 5207 target. This was a textbook failed breakdown. **Lock in profits**, leave runners.
5212, 5219, 5230 next. 5192 must hold
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday, 5192 was key support and #ES_F agreed, putting in an incredible 8 tests/actionable bounces with all dips below trapping. Under again now, It remains key today Plan today: Bulls must reclaim 5192 to rally to 5207+ (clock ticking). 5171, 5157 bounce zones if it cant
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@AdamMancini4 @EpicCharting @businessmaxmax Why would you still trade it after the 1st test? There was no A+ FBD overnight, right?
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@EpicCharting @businessmaxmax First at 4pm yesterday was probably the best
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After a 90 point breakout rally from 5236 support that got to 5315 next target, #ES_F is finally putting in some mini dip. 5300 was support as posted, cracking after *6* tests
Plan today: 5286, 5282-79 (major) next down. Must then hold&reclaim 5302 to rally. Hard sell 5250 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After a 90 point rally from yesterdays 5230-36 support (which also broke out a two week range), #ES_F has had a slow session, digesting the move. We got to 5315 next target, based 5296-5300 remains support. Must hold to continue direct, or we begin healthy retrace 5276 1st down
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