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Tim Duy
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Tim Duy
@TimDuy
Father, Chief U.S. Economist, @sghmacro, former @uoregon economist, Tim Duy's Fed Watch, former columnist for @bopinion
Eugene, OR Katılım Eylül 2011
733 Takip Edilen35.6K Takipçiler
Literally the strategy of every big school was to try to take a bigger share from a shrinking pie. There was no backup strategy even though it has already been incredibly obvious that demographics ensured many more losers than winners for this strategy.
Marc Porter Magee 🎓@marcportermagee
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Tim Duy retweetledi
Every company is realizing they’ve got once-in-a-generation air cover to fire their worst 30% of employees
Many of these companies have been hoarding talent for a decade. They don’t need to anymore AND they have a free pass to unwind it
You better believe they’re gonna do it
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If this happens, Powell will stay at the Board indefinitely.
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos
Pulte says that he expects Fed governor Lisa Cook to be indicted and that even if the Supreme Court allows her to stay, he claims that this forthcoming indictment (not a conviction, but an indictment) would be enough to successfully remove her from office before her term ends.
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Tim Duy retweetledi
Being a Fed dove in 2025: Here’s why we should cut
Being a Fed dove in 2026: Here’s why we don’t need to hike
How the Mideast energy crisis is reshaping the Fed’s debate
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Tim Duy retweetledi
Great piece by @AnnieLowrey on the tax wars. This part is important about how we got here too — Democrats have been highly effective in designing efficient, welfare enhancing tax programs that absolutely nobody knows or cares about.
The Atlantic@TheAtlantic
Members of both parties are egging on a nationwide tax revolt—and if the economy were to tank, the country could end up with a toxic combination of widespread joblessness and rampant inflation, @AnnieLowrey argues. theatln.tc/VsVxElnp 🎨: The Atlantic. Source: Getty.
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Yep, though the Fed will never admit they had a failing inflation forecast. The war bailed them out.
Ben Casselman@bencasselman
Indeed, both core and "supercore" (core services excluding housing) are up sharply on a three-month annualized basis. Inflation clearly an issue even before the war with Iran sent energy prices through the roof.
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Tim Duy retweetledi
David Allan Coe is no longer with us. RIP to one of country music's most iconoclastic characters ever.
An honest remembrance:
savingcountrymusic.com/outlaw-country…
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Tim Duy retweetledi
Trump posts on social media that Powell is staying "because he can’t get a job anywhere else — Nobody wants him."
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Tim Duy retweetledi
"In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments..." The "additional" is the easing bias. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan and everyone else at the Fed understands this.
Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers
It's funny that Hammack, Kashkari and Logan voted against the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement, given that a plain English reading of the statement shows no such bias.
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Vote of no confidence in Warsh.
Gita Gopinath@GitaGopinath
I hope Powell stays on the FOMC till the end of his term in 2028.
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Tim Duy retweetledi
I hope Powell stays on the FOMC till the end of his term in 2028.
Colby Smith@colbyLsmith
This week’s Fed meeting is set to be Powell's last as chair. But the "wait and see" policy path that he carefully carved out amid resurgent inflation risks is likely to stay intact long after he leaves the top job. That means rate cuts are poised to be on an extended hold, much to Trump's chagrin nytimes.com/2026/04/28/bus… @nytimes
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We can’t put a million people in Antartica. We won’t put a million more people on the vastly more inhospitable Mars.
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
MUSK PAY TIED TO MARS COLONY AND SPACE DATA CENTERS SpaceX has tied Elon Musk’s pay to bold goals like building a Mars colony and space-based data centers. He could earn massive share awards if the company hits a $7.5 trillion valuation and establishes a million-person presence on Mars, along with major computing capacity in orbit. He gets nothing unless these targets are met and currently earns only a minimal salary. The plan is highly unusual and may create tension with Tesla, as both companies compete for his attention.
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This is an extremely dangerous trend in public finance. We need broader and simpler taxes.
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez@RepMGP
Thank you so much to the Clark County Sheriff’s office for taking me out for a ride along. It’s an honor to get a chance to see what you’re up against firsthand. In DC, I’m working to provide tax relief on the first $100,000 of federal income tax for law enforcement. We need to think creatively about how to support law enforcement and first responder health and wellness. Read the full story: tinyurl.com/4ncmssvj
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Tim Duy retweetledi
Budget modelers going to be the last ones still paying federal income tax
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez@RepMGP
Thank you so much to the Clark County Sheriff’s office for taking me out for a ride along. It’s an honor to get a chance to see what you’re up against firsthand. In DC, I’m working to provide tax relief on the first $100,000 of federal income tax for law enforcement. We need to think creatively about how to support law enforcement and first responder health and wellness. Read the full story: tinyurl.com/4ncmssvj
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Tim Duy retweetledi
Thinking about this more, it's double noteworthy Warsh picked trimmed inflation measures to highlight. 1st, it just happens to be the lowest among measures.
But 2nd, it's basically the worst lesson to draw from the past 6 years, it mislead many in both directions. Link in next.
Omair Sharif@fcastofthemonth
The skew issue was pointed out by the Cleveland Fed back in early 2022 as a reason the trimmed mean was understating inflation back then. Someone wanting the top job who is trashing current measures & methods probably should have known this before latching on to the trimmed mean.
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