Tim Josling

@PhillipsPOBrien Looking at your posts, I wonder if you hhave a concise list of successful predictions that you have made. This would help to assess whether you are a bona fide expert or just some guy with a piece of paper on the wall and TDS.

Watching Trump teeter on the edge of blowing up the world economy because of a combination of hubris, strategic incoherence, mendacity and outright stupidity, might be the most extraordinarily depressing thing I have observed in my entire life, or read about in any other period.

@aterkel @Petereporter This is the journalism equivalent of when someone says "smoking increases the rate of cancer" and a dope like @aterkel replies "I know someone who smoked their whole life and lived to 100."

@aterkel @Petereporter > But Evidently they don't teach the basics of logic in journalism school. Either that or you are deliberately using rhetorical devices to mislead people. Protip: Many /= All

EXCLUSIVE - Hegseth said today that “family after family” of the service members killed in the Iran war told him: “Finish this. Honor their sacrifice. Do not waver. Do not stop until the job is done.” But a father who met with Hegseth tells @Petereporter he never said that

@missgaryindiana @WallStreetApes > Why do you think 18-year-olds fresh out of school (educated in our shitty system) are the mark? Yes it is cruel. "Never give a sucker an even break" seems to be too prevalent.

@TimJosling @WallStreetApes It’s never been in the interest of borrowers to know what they are signing. Why do you think 18-year-olds fresh out of school (educated in our shitty system) are the mark?

American logs into her federal student aid account so we can see her actual loans and payments - She took out a $49,548.74 loan - She’s made 120 payments, paying $25,558.36 - Her current balance is $50,121.33 So after paying $25,558.36, she now owes more than she took out “It's all such a scam”

> Their house went from $80k to $600k not because they made a great investment but because an entire generation got priced out Most of the increase was inflation and thus fictitious. My first house underperformed the stock market, even taking into account imputed rent. My first house cost $67500AUD. That sounds cheap but at the time wages were far lower at about $300/week.

The 12 hour reset is because acknowledging the housing crisis means admitting their home equity gains came at their kids' expense. Their house went from $80k to $600k not because they made a great investment but because an entire generation got priced out. That's not a fun thing to sit with. So by morning they've re-rationalized it back to "you just need to budget better."

If you trap a boomer in a one-on-one argument for an entire afternoon you can eventually get them to acknowledge how crazy the cost of housing is now. However the effects only last for ~12 hours and the next morning they will text you "why don't you just find a cheap apartment?"

@DogTobacco I also know people who downsized only to find that they had made a big mistake. Suddently they are too far from medical services, friends, children, transport. And there is usually no going back.

@TimJosling I know heaps of people who have successfully downsized to a cheaper, smaller home in a cheaper area with a boatload of cash left over. Might be a skill issue, sorry! It's telling that you didn't acknowledge reverse mortgages which are not risky and are useful tools in retirement

@DogTobacco I would also point out that borrowing to invest, i.e. leverage, is a two edged sword. In good times it magnifies returns, in bad times it can wipe you out. And in retirement there is no "go back to work and earn it back" - you are done for.

@TimJosling Borrowing to invest is probably not something you should do if you are already retired, but if you have your house paid off and still have an income it's a great option. Boomers were in this position once and stood to benefit from it.

@DogTobacco > Borrowing to invest is probably not something you should do if you are already retired Correct, and the median boomer is over 70 now.

> heaps of people Yeah sure. Well at least you concede that it is not easy and requires "skill". But also, actually, luck. In retirement there are no second chances. > reverse mortgages Read the fine print. These can go terribly wrong. high rates. Penalty rates if the L/Val ratio gets too high. You can certainly lose your house.

> Well, most boomers own 2 houses A complete and utter lie. About as many own no house as own more than one. The median is 1. x.com/i/grok/share/9… > loan I posted about this here. You have not thought this through, to state the obvious. x.com/TimJosling/sta… Also at the risk of stating the obvious,, you are falling for a con trick - the issue is the wealthy people of all ages who own 5, 10, 15 or more properties and the hedge funds that own thousands. Yet dumbasses fall for this diversion of turning it into an intergenerational war.

@TimJosling @miketuckerhere @leighbeadon Well, most boomers own 2 houses Also, most boomers sell their house to live in condos or rental properties with hospice care til they finally croak Also also, you forgot a house is an Asset. Which means it can be collateral. Which means they can get a loan using the high value

I've posted about downsizing before. It is a hazardous operation. You sell first - and the market goes up - you lose big. You buy first - and the market goes down - you lose big. The costs are enormous - it would cost me over $100k to move to the hosue next door to the one I live in. The energy and time required are a big issue for older people. You likely will have to move away from your community and supports. A friend lost $200k in a failed downsizing exercising. > borrow against it to invest, or extract liquidity from it through a reverse mortgage It is expensive and often difficult to borrow without an income to service it. If the value of the property falls you get hit with "risk premium" interest rates and can even lose your house. Borrowing to invest is leverage, an insane idea for a retiree. Against these dubious benefits there is the certain reality of higher property taxes. So I stand by my claim thhat there is approximately zero benefit or less than zero.

@TimJosling The value of your house can be used to downsize, borrow against it to invest, or extract liquidity from it through a reverse mortgage. We don't need to pretend it does nothing.

That was funny 😂

@VigilantFox Lindsay Graham is sleazy to a degree that has Chuck Schumer green with envy.

Lindsey Graham says Joe Kent is “lying,” argues his resignation letter effectively said: “If the Jews weren’t around, we’d all be safe.” O’REILLY: “The head of counterterrorism says it wasn’t imminent. And he’s got the same info you have.” GRAHAM: “No, he doesn’t. He’s lying.” O’REILLY: “Why? Why would he lie?” GRAHAM: “Well, why did he say the Jews [dragged] us into it?” “He’s saying, you know, ‘If the Jews weren’t around, we’d all be safe.’ This letter of resignation was full of misinformation and anti-Semitism.”

A man with no money and a woman without Beauty sees the world without illusion - Friedrich Nietzsche

@FGLev @leighbeadon > Have you fucking looked at listings and applied for one? Which just shows there is no benefit from higher prices, unless you are one of the small mnority who owns multiple properties. But the peak for that is actually people nearing retirement, which ain't boomers.

@leighbeadon Worst is the Boomer that says they'll sell their house and blow it on something stupid, then nonchalantly says "I'll just get a cheap apartment after." Have you fucking looked at listings and applied for one? You'll be laughed out of the rental office not making 3x the rent.

> you can eventually get them to acknowledge how crazy the cost of housing is Be me, boomer (b. 1955) Just bought a house (... long story). Trust me, yes the price of houses is insane*. Will still have the same opinion in the morning. '*It is not insane of course for the wealthy people of all ages who own a lot of real estate. 90% og boomers own 0 or 1 houses so it is not boomers in general. For us, the only effect of high prices is that property taxes go up.

@SamRedlich @predict_addict > older than the person it is named for Everything* in math is like that. '* Everything, 100%, in the engineering sense, where pi=22/7 etc.

@predict_addict clifford algebra is older than clifford 🤓

Solid mathematical ideas almost always outperform contrived engineering tricks. For years deep learning has been dominated by increasingly complex architectural hacks: CNN blocks, attention layers, channel mixers, residual pathways, normalization stacks. Every few years a new architecture is announced as if it were a revolution. One of the most famous examples was Kaiming He and Residual Networks (ResNet). At the time he was paraded around the AI world like a celebrity because residual connections supposedly “solved” deep learning. But these were largely engineering patches. Now something much more interesting appeared. A new architecture called CliffordNet returns to mathematics — specifically Clifford Algebra, developed in the 19th century by William Kingdon Clifford. Instead of stacking arbitrary modules, the model is built around the geometric product uv = u·v + u∧v A single algebraic operation that simultaneously captures inner product structure and geometric interactions. In other words: the math already contains the interaction mechanism. No attention blocks. No mixer layers. No architectural spaghetti. The result: • 77.82% accuracy on CIFAR-100 with only 1.4M parameters • roughly 8× fewer parameters than ResNet-18 And with strict O(N) complexity. The paper even suggests that once geometric interactions are modeled correctly, feed-forward networks become largely redundant. A good reminder for the AI community. Engineering tricks can dominate for years. But eventually mathematics shows up and deletes half the architecture. Paper: [arxiv.org/pdf/2601.06793…) 19th century geometry just walked into computer vision.

@predict_addict > CliffordNet Well there goes the day...