Tim Koltek

Failure is often the best thing that can happen to you.

Happy Saturday, y'all. Day 199: x.com/TimKoltek/stat…

@patrickbetdavid Very much agree. I wrote an article recently about why: x.com/TimKoltek/stat…

Everyone wants the confidence. Few are willing to endure the lonely moments that create it.

Day 199 of 2026 Growth isn’t linear. Some weeks you fly, others you crawl. Both are necessary. The key is refusing to quit on the crawl days. Rest if you need to, but never quit. Your consistency is writing a story worth celebrating by December 31.

@elonmusk @brivael @elonmusk 100% agree. Short-term, yes; long-term, you will get pickled.

@brivael The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low

Les types qui shortent SpaceX en ce moment ont fait Harvard, Wharton et Stanford. Un demi-million de dollars de scolarité, des CV parfaits, des modèles Excel à 40 onglets. Et une capacité de projection strictement égale à zéro. Aujourd'hui, Elon leur a répondu en une phrase : "I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals." Toute la Ivy League a ricané. Personne n'a posé le calcul. Normal : quinze ans d'études pour apprendre à donner la réponse attendue, pas à imaginer celle qui n'existe pas encore. Je vais donc le faire à leur place. Gratuitement. Le contexte d'abord. Cinq semaines après la plus grosse IPO de l'histoire, le titre est repassé sous son prix d'introduction. -30% depuis le pic à 2 600 milliards qui avait brièvement dépassé Microsoft et Amazon. Les vendeurs à découvert ont empoché 8,7 milliards et se congratulent sur Bloomberg : les diplômés fêtent leur victoire de six semaines sur un pari de vingt ans. Moi, je rachète vos bags à chaque chute. Plus que la Terre, donc. Plus que les 600 trillions de dollars de richesse matérielle accumulée par l'humanité depuis Sumer. Point de départ du calcul, toujours le même : Starship divise le coût du kilo en orbite par 100. Et chaque fois dans l'histoire qu'un coût d'infrastructure est divisé par 100, ce n'est pas le marché existant qui grossit, ce sont des industries entières qui naissent. Le calcul divisé par 100 a donné Internet, le smartphone, l'IA. Voici ce que donne l'orbite divisée par 100. Les 20 boîtes iconiques de 2045. Aucune n'existe encore. Vos enfants les trouveront aussi évidentes qu'Apple ou Amazon. Dyson Energy, solaire spatial beamé vers la Terre, premier maillon de l'essaim de Dyson : 20 trillions. Psyche Metals, minage des astéroïdes de classe M — plus de métaux dans un seul caillou que tout ce que l'humanité a extrait depuis le néolithique : 15 trillions. Ares Terraforming, l'entreprise qui épaissit l'atmosphère de Mars : 10 trillions. Helios Compute, data centers orbitaux — énergie solaire continue, refroidissement gratuit, zéro permis de construire : 8 trillions. Selene Fusion, hélium-3 lunaire pour les réacteurs terrestres : 7 trillions. Atlas Robotics, la main-d'œuvre robotique qui construit tout le reste : 6 trillions. Crystalline, semi-conducteurs et fibre optique parfaits, impossibles à produire sous gravité : 6 trillions. Vulcan Shipyards, chantiers navals orbitaux — des vaisseaux assemblés en apesanteur qui ne toucheront jamais un sol : 5 trillions. New Olympus, immobilier, énergie et infrastructures martiennes : 5 trillions. SolNet, le réseau laser interplanétaire, l'internet du système solaire : 4 trillions. Orbital Organs, impression d'organes humains en microgravité — la fin des listes d'attente de greffe : 4 trillions. Starline, transport point à point, Paris-Tokyo en 40 minutes : 3 trillions. Ceres Water, extraction de glace et stations-service orbitales : 3 trillions. Von Braun Resorts, hôtels orbitaux puis lunaires — la croisière de luxe du 21ème siècle : 2 trillions. Prometheus Shielding, habitats, radioprotection, support de vie : 2 trillions. Orbital Express, la logistique inter-orbites, le FedEx du vide : 2 trillions. Kessler Solutions, contrôle du trafic spatial et nettoyage des débris : 1 trillion. Eden Systems, agriculture en environnement clos, de l'orbite à Mars : 1 trillion. Astral Assurance, la Lloyd's de l'espace : 1 trillion. Studio Zéro-G, le premier Hollywood orbital — cinéma et sport en apesanteur : 1 trillion. Total : 106 trillions de dollars de capitalisation. Le marché paie historiquement 4 à 5 fois le chiffre d'affaires pour de la croissance, donc ces valorisations impliquent un PIB spatial de l'ordre de 20 à 25 trillions par an. L'équivalent d'ajouter les États-Unis à l'économie mondiale. Pas en remplaçant quoi que ce soit : en plus, sur une frontière sans limite physique. Et j'ai certainement raté les trois plus grosses, comme un analyste de 1995 aurait raté Google, Amazon et Netflix. Lui aussi avait fait la Ivy League. Maintenant la partie que Wall Street refuse de comprendre. SpaceX ne sera en concurrence avec aucune de ces 20 boîtes. SpaceX est leur propriétaire foncier. Chaque kilo lancé, chaque équipage, chaque bit de données passe par son péage. AWS prélève quelques pourcents de l'économie numérique et ça a suffi à pousser Amazon au-dessus des 2 trillions. Prélevez 10% d'un PIB spatial de 25 trillions : 2,5 trillions de revenus annuels de monopole d'infrastructure en hypercroissance. Voilà mes 30 à 50 trillions d'ici 5 ans. Une règle de trois, pas une prophétie. Prolongez ensuite la courbe de deux décennies, le temps que Dyson Energy passe du white paper au chantier. Les 600 trillions de la Terre sont un stock, accumulé en 10 000 ans. Le Soleil, lui, rayonne en continu 20 000 milliards de fois la puissance que consomme l'humanité. Celui qui tient la porte d'accès à ce réservoir vaut mécaniquement, à terme, plus que tout ce qui se trouve du côté départ de la porte. "Worth more than Earth" n'est pas un délire. C'est une multiplication. Ce qui nous ramène à la vraie question : pourquoi un type qui a fait Wharton est-il incapable de suivre un raisonnement qui tient sur une serviette de restaurant ? Parce que la projection est un muscle, et que tout son parcours a consisté à le sectionner. Un test de pensée divergente conçu pour la NASA a suivi 1 600 enfants : à 5 ans, 98% se classent au niveau "génie créatif". À 10 ans, 30%. À 15 ans, 12%. À l'âge adulte, 2%. Ce n'est pas le vieillissement qui fait ça. C'est l'école, machine conçue par la gauche pour fabriquer des agents dociles de la norme, qui force la pensée convergente : une question, une réponse, un barème. Et le diplôme prestigieux n'est pas l'antidote, c'est le stade terminal de la maladie. Un demi-million de dollars pour devenir le meilleur du monde à donner la réponse attendue. Ces gens peuvent modéliser n'importe quel passé. Ils sont structurellement incapables d'imaginer un futur plus grand que le présent. Et ils appellent ça de la lucidité. Résultat : Wall Street price SpaceX comme une boîte de lancement plus Starlink, exactement comme on pricait Internet en 1995 sur le marché du fax. Les 2% de survivants du broyeur scolaire achètent la baisse. Les 98 autres ricanent, comme ils ont ricané sur l'atterrissage des boosters, sur Tesla, sur Starlink, et sur cette IPO il y a cinq semaines. Vers 2031, un humain marchera sur Mars en livestream devant 5 milliards de personnes. Ce jour-là, le seul diplôme qui comptera sera d'avoir eu raison avant tout le monde. D'ici là, je continue de racheter vos bags. L'optimisme est toujours sous-valorisé. La pensée divergente aussi. J'accumule les deux.

The Ivy League echo chamber excels at extrapolating yesterday’s Excel models, but zero-gravity thinking is what actually builds tomorrow’s trillions. Elon’s napkin math reminds every founder that the real alpha comes from betting on exponential infrastructure that multiplies entire economies, not defending the current one.

@garyblack00 Despite the short-term fluff & volatility, SpaceX remains a generational company that could change the world. Short-term pain is real, but long-term upside is unlimited: reusable rockets, Starlink scale, multi-planetary future. Vision + execution creates luck.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you. $SPCX now sits at $126/share - a stunning 45% reversal in just one month from its post-IPO peak of $226 and well below its IPO price of $135. SPCX still trades at FY’2026 EV/Revs of 45x. Iconic Wall Street investor Peter Lynch was not a fan of buying into small IPO floats, and liked to say that IPO stood for “it’s probably overpriced”. The totally unproven plans to build data centres in space were endlessly dissected. The SPCX prospectus spelled out the ridiculous total addressable market the company was claiming: $US28.5 trillion, close to the entire GDP of the United States. SpaceX’s losses were disclosed and discussed. Indeed, there may not have been an IPO in world history as closely scrutinised as this one. If investors still wanted to buy in despite all the risks, they deserved what they got. That’s fair enough, at one level, but it ignores the cynical way that SpaceX, its investment bankers and its advisors structured this IPO to engineer short-term gain – and a $US500 billion fee pool – with seemingly little concern for long-term investors. As Schroders head of Australian equity Martin Conlon wrote this week, investment banks know that “the vast pools of money directed towards rules-based investment processes”, such as passive investing and algorithmic trading, have changed the way markets work. And so they successfully lobbied index market operators such as Nasdaq and FTSE Russell to – in the words of Conlon – pervert and game the rules so that large, loss-making companies such as SpaceX could gain almost immediate inclusion in major sharemarket indices. The SpaceX float raised a historic $US85 billion in its IPO - 3x the size of the next largest IPO in history. But the bankers knew that they could create a “highly imbalanced supply/demand situation, where a free float of less than $US100 billion would set the price for more than $US2 trillion in paper market value. Here we are today and SPCX still looks ridiculously overvalued at 45x 2026 EV/Revs. Yet 80% of the 36 WS analysts who have initiated coverage of SPCX have buy ratings on the stock. And only one - Morningstar, which presumably can’t earn future banking fees on SPCX - has a sell rating. That says it all. Source: Financial Review

@EmailCopyJames Thank you! You as well, @EmailCopyJames

@TimKoltek we already gone through the hard battle, the battle that'll come will also be defeated by us. Have amazing day. Tim

Day 198 of 2026 Reminder: You’ve already survived 100% of your worst days. The same strength that carried you then is still in you now. Stop waiting for the perfect moment. Create it with your next decision. You’re not behind — you’re exactly where you need to be to begin again.

@EmailCopyJames I focus on trying to be useful and add value.

Have you ever wondered Why two people can post every day Yet want completely different things from it. Which one are you actually chasing? A. More clients B. Build a business C. Grow an audience D. Better career opportunities Funny how we're all posting on the same app but trying to build completely different lives.

@JohnCena Spot on — England were up a goal against Argentina but dropped into pure defense mode instead of pushing for more, and it cost them as the Albiceleste grew into the game and hit back late. Classic reminder that sitting back rarely works at this level!

It is nearly impossible to be in defense mode and growth mode at the same time.

@unusual_whales Flank steak is $18.99/lb at SF Bay Area Costco!

US beef herds are at all-time lows, per CNBC:

If it were easy to be successful, everyone would be. True progress — whether it’s launching to the Moon, building companies, or chasing any big goal — demands resilience through the aborts, delays, and hard lessons. SpaceX gets it. Exciting times ahead.

@Kristennetten @elonmusk @elonmusk Nice swag.

Love the new Starship Schematics T-shirt sold by SpaceX

@HKane @HKane Proud of the fight and the heart you and the boys showed. That empty feeling after coming so close is brutal, but it’s exactly what forges champions — process the pain, identify the missing piece, and come back even stronger.

No words are big enough right now to overcome this empty feeling in the stomach. We were close, really close to another final but it wasn’t enough. We’ve given everything over these last 7 weeks and to fall short is hard to take! I know the expectations are high and rightly so, we’ve been knocking on the door for 8 years now but again are missing that final piece of the jigsaw! That’s where we have to go away, process it and find a way to get better. I’m so proud of the boys and what we have shown throughout this tournament - some tough games and tough environments that we have overcome. Some memories that will stay with us players and I’m sure you fans for a long long time! Going for glory doesn’t always mean you will get it. You have to fight for it, get knocked down, pick yourself up and go again and that’s what we will do, there’s no other way but to keep believing and keeping pushing. Thank you to every single fan that travelled and showed their support in the stadiums. Thank you to every fan back home for believing in us. Thank you to the boys and staff for everything you have given. As always Win or lose, we learn and go again! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🦁

@Mediolanum538 @latrell_ryy @unusual_whales @Mediolanum538 Steady job + terrible credit signals payment problems. No system is perfect, but stripping landlords of basic vetting tools doesn’t solve edge cases — it creates more defaults and higher rents for responsible tenants. Business reality > wishful thinking.

@latrell_ryy @TimKoltek @unusual_whales What if someone has a very good score but doesn’t have a job and couldn’t find a job and can’t afford rent Or someone has a job but with a rock bottom score and doesn’t pay their rent You see the issue yet or you gonna keep being willfully retarded?

BREAKING: The Mamdani administration proposed banning landlords from requiring both proof of income and a credit check, alongside forcing landlords or brokers to cover the costs of credit checks, per YF

@KineDareel @unusual_whales Demand drives prices — that’s how markets work. Rents spiked because bad policy crushed supply. “Owners eat shit” sounds good until landlords exit and new builds stop. Then rents climb higher. Fix it with more housing and sane incentives, not forced risk. Reality > feelings.

@TimKoltek @unusual_whales Not in this inflated market. Rents up 50-100% across the board with no rhyme or reason other than demand. Owners can eat shit.

3/3 The biggest unlock: Stop waiting for permission or perfect conditions. Luck finds the obsessed. No one is coming to save you. Build, ship, iterate, own it. The compound curve is brutal at first… then ridiculous.

2/3 Solve expensive problems for people who can pay Own equity in the thing you build (never trade time for money forever) Obsess over cash flow and margins — revenue is vanity, profit is sanity Build unbreakable consistency. Small daily actions compound harder than any hack Bet on yourself when it’s uncomfortable. Every exit I’ve had started with people calling me crazy Risk and ownership beat salary security every single time.

1/3 How to actually get rich (as a founder/CEO who’s done it twice). (save this for later!!!): Most people chase “get rich quick.” The ones who win play the long game most quit. Wealth isn’t luck. It’s engineered through decisions, discipline, and ownership. Here’s the real playbook I wish I fully understood at 25:

@KobeissiLetter The housing/mortgage market is toast. I don't expect it to get any better anytime soon.

BREAKING: The average interest rate on a US 30-year fixed mortgage rises to 6.55%, the highest since August 2025. As the Iran War continues, interest rates are hitting new one-year highs.