Private Equity killed my Cat

Almost 20 years ago my graduate thesis was that meaning in human life requires temporal transcendence The Santa Book I am successfully avoiding through the distractions on X, 3 kids 3 businesses 70 employees and trying to stay healthy and fit on sub 6 hours/night sleep is an offshoot of that. I expect it will contain many run on sentences and made up words when I finally finish it. Santa’s Imbeddedness in American culture is to me a symptom of a superficial lack of understanding and connection with children, a failure of parenting, and a preference for appearance over substance that has taken over our culture. Stories of Santa misadventures, disturbing anecdotes or personal experiences are welcome. Direct respond or DM. I hope you enjoy the journey while I try and pole this together

@BullTheoryio The comments in the thread here are so awesome. We are sooo early still lol

🚨 THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MIGHT BE BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE. Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon. This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop. But how it works ? A tech giant gives billions of dollars to an AI startup as an "investment". But hidden in the contract is a strict rule forcing the startup to hand that exact same money straight back to the tech giant to rent their computer servers. Look at the documented case of Microsoft and OpenAI. When Microsoft invested $13 billion into OpenAI, it didn't just give them cash; it gave them "cloud credits" to use Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those exact credits to train its AI models, and Microsoft then turned around and recorded that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue" from a customer. The tech giant is literally paying itself with its own money and calling it a sale. This is why OpenAI’s annual cloud bill has ballooned to over $60 billion, double its actual revenue of $25 billion, kept alive solely by this recycled funding loop. Anthropic runs the exact same play, spending $2.66 billion on Amazon Web Services in just nine months, which was basically 100% of all the money it earned at the time. This manufactured demand triggers a second accounting trick where tech giants book massive paper profits. Every time a startup gets a higher value from a new funding round, the tech giant updates the value of its investment on its books and counts that unearned paper gain as direct profit. In Q1 2026, Alphabet reported a record $62.6 billion profit, but $28.7 billion nearly half, was just a paper markup on its Anthropic investment. In the same quarter, Amazon reported $30.3 billion in profit, but $16.8 billion of it was just an Anthropic paper gain. While Amazon reported record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion because it had to spend $44.2 billion in real cash to build physical data centers. This has created a massive danger where these giant companies rely heavily on just one or two unstable startups. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI, while Oracle has an incredible 54% of its entire $553 billion pipeline relying on OpenAI alone. This perfectly mirrors the 2001 dot-com crash when Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped identical fiber-optic network capacity with each other just to book fake sales. Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income, and Global Crossing went completely bankrupt. The only difference is that the dot-com swaps were illegal, but today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules. This legal loop inflates tech company stock prices, forcing automatic retirement accounts and index funds to buy even more of these tech stocks. It is a self feeding loop where investments, sales, and stock prices all go up on paper without the AI technology ever making real cash profits.

$TSLA will likely have 20 million vehicles across their entire fleet by 2030 including all the AVs they’ll be launching. The amount of services revenue is about to explode higher.

@BullTheoryio When do people build an inverse Michael Burry EFT

🚨 MICHAEL BURRY JUST WARNED THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MAY BE BUILT ON TEMPORARY DEMAND. He published a post today calling Nvidia "the North Star, Orion, the whole Milky Way" and explaining why that makes it the most dangerous stock in the market right now. His core argument is: Nvidia is selling into a concentrated group of buyers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta who are all racing to buy chips not because they need them for real revenue generating products right now, but because they are in a training and benchmarking phase that will not last forever. Hyperscalers currently account for approximately 50% of all Nvidia data center revenue. When the training phase ends and these companies shift from building AI to deploying it, the demand profile changes completely. Burry calls this the "bullwhip effect." When the buyers at the end of a supply chain over order because they are afraid of missing out, the distortion amplifies all the way back through the chain. Nvidia sees record demand. Nvidia locks in massive custom supply commitments. Data center financing expands to accommodate the buildout. Everyone bets the demand is permanent. Nvidia just reported $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85% year over year. Data center revenue alone was $75.2 billion, up 92%. The numbers are real but the question Burry is asking is whether the demand behind those numbers is structural or temporary. He calls it the "bezzle." A term coined by economist John Kenneth Galbraith to describe the gap between what people think they own and what actually exists. In a bezzle, the money feels real, the assets feel real, and everything looks fine until the moment it does not. Historically the semiconductor industry is highly cyclical. The persistent fear among analysts is that the current build out phase of AI will eventually lead to oversupply of computing power and when that happens the whiplash into Nvidia's revenue could be severe. Burry has been wrong on timing before. He called the market a sell in 2023 and it went up 131% since then. But the 2008 mortgage crisis he predicted also looked like a timing mistake for two years before it was not. The difference this time is that he is not just making a macro call. He is pointing to a specific mechanism, concentrated buyers, a temporary demand phase, and custom supply commitments that create obligations on both sides and saying the math only works until the training phase ends. Nvidia trades at 33 times forward earnings on $81 billion in quarterly revenue. If hyperscaler capex slows even 20%, that math changes very fast.

Then: breaking ground.
 Two years later: shipping Megapacks worldwide. 🌏⚡

Holy sh*t…. This is wild.

It’s weird that these people are all so proud of working on a show that failed and become unsustainable.

My chili dog drew more viewers than the series finale of “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.”

@CoinvoTrading Except Google is currently worth 4.5T and Anthropic would probably IPO around 1.5-2 trillion so no they are not.

🇺🇸 ANTHROPIC IS ABOUT TO IPO AND IT COULD LITERALLY CHANGE YOUR LIFE. In 2004, $GOOGL went public and had you put in $10,000, you would've had $1.83 million now. AI is giving you the same chance this year but with Anthropic. If it follows the same 10-year trend, you will become a millionaire. Do not miss your second chance.

@brianstelter What a shitshow. How insane is that. Rogan gets 5x the views per episode with 1/200th of the staff.

One of the great group shots of "The Late Show" staff posing on stage:

@Variety On his farewell episode Colbert had more viewers than he gets on a random Thursday. Gobsmacking news

'The Late Show With Stephen Colbert' Finale Attracts 6.74 Million Viewers, Its Most-Watched Weeknight Episode Of All Time variety.com/2026/tv/news/t…

@RyanSaavedra @ianmiles That’s literally a medaling Olympic athlete

These athletes are obviously a step or two below where top-tier athletes are as the best compete in pro sports or the Olympics. Will be interesting to see how steroids can make up that gap in natural talent.

$TSLA is now positioned for free cash flow per share to explode upwards They’ve been silently getting way more efficient $TSLA is going to giga print cash

@tuuu28283 As do yep, yea, ya, yeah, and uh-huh

アメリカの兄弟達 日本人なんであんまりわかってないんだけど 英語のyesとyupは意味ってほとんど一緒？？

@ShadowofEzra 😭 Holy fuck. So WHO are they even interviewing? This is a scary, weird, corrupt, INSANE fucking world. And what? We're just like, "Hmm... maybe someone will do something someday." While EVERYTHING WE SEE is a con to take advantage of US. I can't... This is beyond crazy.

@JustDoItPruett @ShadowofEzra That isn’t even close to being him

@ShadowofEzra Here’s the full video of Fox’s interview with Robert Harward: x.com/joe_drozd/stat…

Fox News stages a propaganda-for-war interview with retired Robert Harward, former Deputy Commander of U.S. Central Command. However, it’s not what he said that’s making him go viral. The world is a stage.

Nation Looks Forward To Not Watching Stephen Colbert One Last Time buff.ly/bKnbH4T

Meta will use ~$200 million of @Tesla Megapack batteries to help power their AI datacenters in Wyoming. This is another example of Tesla Energy becoming critical infrastructure for the AI boom.

Wow, Irving, TX, and Las Vegas, NV are both getting massive Tesla Robotaxi maintenance facilities! They will probably be run mostly by Optimus robots and autonomous machines in the future. Robots will build, clean, and maintain other Robots. Automation.

Right. Hard money is 2-3 points upfront closing costs and best case with vacancy and under a million loan with great credit probably 9% so right there you’re out 60k then you have insurance, settlement charges, etc. Making 60k on a strip center at a cap rate under occupancy is not a “home run” that’s a mediocre house flip.

@SimpleCRE @TimeToEndSanta How much did he pay to borrow that initial 500k for a year?

I knew a real estate investor who bought a small strip center for $600K putting $100K down. A year later, he turned down an offer for $720K because "it was only a 20% return." This is your competition in the sub-million dollar investment space.