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Tipswatch

@TipsWatch

Talking about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, plus I Bonds and Treasurys in general, on the https://t.co/eKll4hxO6k site, since March 2011.

Katılım Ekim 2013
119 Takip Edilen2.3K Takipçiler
Tipswatch
Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Also today, and more important, auction of 20-year Treasury bond: High yield of 5.122%, up from 4.883% last month. This hit the "when-issued" prediction, so demand was fine.
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Today's T-bill auction result: 17-week, investment rate of 3.684%, down from 3.710% last week.
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Before 2023, the most recent high was in June 2007 at 5.03%.
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Someone wake me when the 10-year note hits 5%. (It reached 4.98% on Oct 19, 2023, by the way, the recent high.)
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Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks·
We've officially reached the "brutal" stage in the global bond market sell-off. The 10y10y forward yield (red) is making new highs all over the place. Japan's 10y10y forward has risen 30 basis points in just a few days. Even Swiss 10y10y forward is rising. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-world-of-d…
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Today's T-bill auction result: 6-week, investment rate of 3.645%, down from 3.681% last week.
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Beef prices are high, and we are about to start exporting more beef to China? (If China actually fulfills its commitment.) I guess they will buy our oil, too. finance.yahoo.com/markets/articl…
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Tipswatch
Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
@Claudia_Sahm I wasn't a huge fan of Powell, but I have to admit I respected his ultimate courage (eventually) to raise rates and keep them high, for much longer than people expected. That took guts during a time of intense presidential and CNBC criticism.
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Claudia Sahm
Claudia Sahm@Claudia_Sahm·
"Actions speak louder than words, but Powell's words did real work — talking the country through the pandemic, laying out the cost of fighting inflation, and naming the threat to the Fed's independence." My new piece on Jay Powell's last day as Fed Chair.
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Tipswatch
Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Today's T-bill auction results: 4-week, investment rate of 3.665%, down from 3.670% last week. 8-week, investment rate of 3.681%, up from 3.665% last week.
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Tipswatch
Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Also today, auction of 30-year Treasury bond: High yield of 5.046%, up from 4.876% last month. Broke through the 5% barrier.
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Today's T-bill auction result: 17-week, investment rate of 3.710%, up from 3.699% last week.
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
The total return of the S&P500 is up about 325% over the last 10 years. Much better than inflation.
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
This just shows you that a lasting surge in inflation is very much like a stealth bear market. You don’t even notice it happening, but the value of your portfolio in real dollars is declining.
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
Since I retired in October 2016, our household net worth is up 71%, net of spending. Inflation is up 38% over those 10 years. Hey, I am still ahead of the rolling boulder! **But I didn't need another surge in inflation.**
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
These producer price numbers are mind-boggling. Where are we heading? Welcome to the Fed, Kevin Warsh.
LiveSquawk@LiveSquawk

US PPI Final Demand (M/M) Apr: 1.4% (est 0.5%; prev 0.5%; prev R 0.7%) - PPI Final Demand (Y/Y): 6.0% (est 4.8%; prev 4.0%; prev R 4.3%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M): 1.0% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%; prev R 0.2%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y): 5.2% (est 4.3%; prev 3.8%; prev R 4.0%) - PPI Ex Food, Energy And Trade (M/M): 5.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%) - PPI Ex Food, Energy And Trade (Y/Y): 4.4% (est 4.1%; prev 3.6%)

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Liz Ann Sonders
Liz Ann Sonders@LizAnnSonders·
Rule of 20, which says market is fairly valued when sum of S&P 500 P/E and CPI Y/Y equals 20, is elevated at 32
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Mohamed A. El-Erian
Mohamed A. El-Erian@elerianm·
A good question for an economics test and also interviews for an economics or finance job: The US economy has entered its sixth consecutive year in which inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve's target, and not just by a little. Until recently, however, markets have largely turned a blind eye to this trend, and long-term inflation expectations have remained remarkably stable. How can we explain this historical anomaly, and what are the most probable paths forward from here? #economy #markets #inflation
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Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch·
The U.S. 30-Year Yield is now 5.03%. It has only been higher for a handful of days in the last 19 years. And it is now just 8 basis points from a new 19-year high.
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Tipswatch@TipsWatch·
@IwasRetired Of course, Powell and the Fed have zero role in this current price shock
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