Tolu
317 posts
Tolu retweetledi
Vital thread. This is what I want supporters of the Florida mishegas to grapple with. First, the state has explicitly *refused* to provide school districts with guidance. Second, it knows (and apparently celebrates) that without guidance, outcomes like this are inevitable.
Florida Freedom to Read Project@FLFreedomRead
But, when FL Schools for the Deaf & Blind reported in Feb 2023 that they removed library access to “All Are Welcome” over inclusion of same-sex parents, the FLDOE included that removal in their 87% data point of books removed for “pornographic, violent, or inappropriate content”.
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@AndreWorrell7 @Jason @paul_griffiths P.S. It was VC panic that killed $SIVB, not loan losses. The fact that you were on the pod hyperventilating about a very unlikely worst case scenario (it was always 99% likely ppl would have at least 50% of their funds by Monday) was ridiculous
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@AndreWorrell7 @Jason @paul_griffiths Couldn't agree more. Latest episode of the pod was panicky and uninformed.
The Fed + FDIC have prepared extensively for this for 15 years; ppl that learned how bank balance sheets work a week ago should keep quiet rather than stoking panic
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1. 2 banks collapsed in 48 hours
2. FED waited until before markets opened in Asia to announce a blanket backstop for all depositors
3. Downstream effects were instantly felt: payrolls systems, Etsy, etc
It would have been 20 banks in a week & chaos if they did nothing
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Tolu retweetledi
“We find it ridiculous and unacceptable that by virtue of … growing one day past $50bn, we will be burdened with rules intended for the mega 'too big to fail' banks”
Scott Shay, chairman of Signature Bank in 2018
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@DavidSacks SVB would have survived if VCs and startups hadn't pulled deposits. It's dead b/c you panicked, and you continue to spread panic in an attempt to pressure the govt into action.
Your lack of accountability is stunning but not surprising. Always the Fed's fault when VCs lose money
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Only morons in the media could blame a single VC or even all VCs for SVB’s demise. It happened because SVB mismanaged its balance sheet and communications, with regulators asleep at the wheel. The sharks on Wall Street already smelled blood in the water by Thursday morning, and the CEO’s “don’t panic” call later that day sealed their fate. VCs who passed on a warning to their portfolio companies did their duty to serve their founders. Nothing to be ashamed of. In fact, it was required.
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Tolu retweetledi
A lot of panic re: SVB (you should see my phone/emails!). A bank run driven by panic is the real risk here, not the action of selling LT securities at loss
I have no inside information as I left SVB in 2012, but know enough about banking to piece together.
Quick 🧵
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Tolu retweetledi
Years ago I led research on the GFC and was way out front suggesting trillions in losses, so I know a little something about crummy banks.
Getting panicked calls about the risk of SVB deposit losses, a bank with:
1) 15% tier 1
2) 40% LTV
3) 100% deposit liquidity coverage
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Tolu retweetledi
So...the DOE decided that SARS-CoV-2 originated with a "lab leak."
The available evidence shows overwhelmingly that the pandemic started at Huanan market via zoonosis.
But affirmative evidence of lab origin could change my view. What kind of evidence? 🧵
nytimes.com/2023/02/26/us/…
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Tolu retweetledi
Time will tell, but personally, I think those massive crypto funds are toast. web3 is dead, and now that we've had the super bowl ads phase of the hype cycle, there just isn't another wave of greater fools coming to pump up prices and end the crypto winter.
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Tolu retweetledi
1/10
In this very good article Peter Goodman argues that there all sorts of "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring" reasons for American businesses to shift offshore production from countries like China to countries like Mexico.
nytimes.com/2023/01/01/bus…
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Tolu retweetledi
@RoterTodFooty @JeffreyPNesker @AlexiLalas I hereby challenge you to a brawl to defend the honor of “football”. You choose any 10 players from the international game and I’ll choose any 10 “American” football players.
Loser commits to winner’s game permanently and gives up watching the EPL.
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How would improve ⚽️? Examples:
- Make goals bigger
- 2-pts for goals outside penalty area
- 35yd shootout instead of PKs
- Kick-in option on throw-in
- Hockey “penalty box”for player punishment
- Offside only applies last 35-yds
- Handball simply any ball contact with hand/arm
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@jordyxcollins @AlexiLalas This game sounds much better you should also be able to throw the ball or run with it.
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@AlexiLalas Open play goals are worth 6 pts
After every goal, a penalty is taken
Penalty goals are worth 1 pt after goal
Penalty goals are worth 3 pt w/o goal
If you’ve made it to this point, realize, This is a joke.
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Tolu retweetledi
3) How do you size positions - this is a revealing risk mgmt question. If you want to avoid funds that may blow up, shy away from someone who answers we run concentrated and size on conviction. These two criteria, to exclusion of others, are problematic.
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Tolu retweetledi
Ppl who run concentrated tend to have trouble changing their minds. Combine that with conviction and you have a lethal combo of overconfidence and stubbornness. If you want funds that won’t blow up, there should be some mention of risk-based sizing.
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Tolu retweetledi
Tolu retweetledi
I'm going to leave this here for now and pick this back up on Substack tomorrow and on a @ETFThinkTank episode next week. In the meantime remember that it's supposed to be a liquidity premium, not an illiquidity premium, and don't let the $BX suits tell you otherwise.
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