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This is certifiably insane…. Thx @loganbartlett for sharing this
logan bartlett@loganbartlett
This is so bad ass. I don’t even know what else to say.
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samir kaji
7.4K posts
samir kaji
@Samirkaji
CEO of Allocate (https://t.co/tCOIHOo5Xl) Host of the Venture Unlocked podcast, https://t.co/J3J8C4Ims6. My opinions are mine, and not related to Allocate.
Menlo Park, CA Katılım Nisan 2009
900 Takip Edilen35.5K Takipçiler
Reminders:
- looking at IRR < 5 years doesn’t make much sense. I once made 70% realized IRR on an investment. The company was sold 6 months after we invested. 1.3x MOIC. Meh
- this is probably mostly TVPI with inflated valuations. It’s not over till it’s over
- there’s no correlation between Y5 returns (even DPI) and final fund performance
Love what Thrive is doing (I introduced my last report on intuition with the Kushner/OpenAI case study), and this one will probably be the outlier on everything I wrote above.
But worth reminding folks that VC perf doesn’t exist in a vacuum imho.
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As a fellow founder, the stupidity around arr metrics these days is embarrassing. How the are people just lying about revs to anyone?
Part of why everything is distorted rn.
Roy@im_roy_lee
eh kinda, here's our stripes from june 2025 got a random cold call from some woman asking about numbers and told her some bs, did not expect an article about it here's what we were doing at the time: > consumer arr 2.7m, run rate 3.8m > enterprise arr 2.5m, run rate 2.5m > total 5.2m arr, 6.3m run rate this is the only blatantly dishonest thing i've said publicly online, so this is my formal retraction myb, tech crunch foid we're profitable btw
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We’ll probably look back at the Anthropic-DoD standoff as the moment AI (and broadly tech) stopped being a technology industry and became a national power industry, with being apolitical no longer an option.
Once that happens, nothing is neutral. Not customers, not investors, or employees. All behavior seems to be sorted to a left vs right lens with little room for centrists.
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Consistent with what i see too
Sophie Bakalar@sophiebakalar
The @stepstonegroup AGM is always a highlight of the year. Some of my favorite conversations: 1. Venture is becoming more important at the exact moment it’s becoming less forgiving. More value is being created in private markets, but fewer companies (and managers) capture it. 2. As a result, many LPs are underweight venture at exactly the wrong time. Weak DPI scared everyone, but you have to be in venture if the next decade's winners stay private longer. 3. The AI boom didn’t make venture easier. It made selection matter more; venture is becoming a concentration game. 4. Venture’s biggest problem right now isn’t NAV. It’s liquidity. There's plenty of paper value, but not enough cash back --> secondaries are becoming core infrastructure. 5. We’re moving from “venture as startup finance” to “venture as economic infrastructure.” AI, energy, defense, compute, manufacturing = the systems layer of the next decade.
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samir kaji retweetledi
The @stepstonegroup AGM is always a highlight of the year. Some of my favorite conversations:
1. Venture is becoming more important at the exact moment it’s becoming less forgiving. More value is being created in private markets, but fewer companies (and managers) capture it.
2. As a result, many LPs are underweight venture at exactly the wrong time. Weak DPI scared everyone, but you have to be in venture if the next decade's winners stay private longer.
3. The AI boom didn’t make venture easier. It made selection matter more; venture is becoming a concentration game.
4. Venture’s biggest problem right now isn’t NAV. It’s liquidity. There's plenty of paper value, but not enough cash back --> secondaries are becoming core infrastructure.
5. We’re moving from “venture as startup finance” to “venture as economic infrastructure.” AI, energy, defense, compute, manufacturing = the systems layer of the next decade.
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@honam @gerstenzang Many PE firms also use sub lines aggressively (up to 2-3 year repayment terms) which can significantly alter irr as well in short time frames
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It’s apples and oranges. IRR could be comparable but MOIC will be different. I’ve been surprised by how low cash on cash multiples are on most PE funds that have impressive IRRs. Holding period makes a difference. When IRR is the North Star, the urgency will be to flip ASAP. As Buffett says, time is the enemy of the mediocre business. There has never been a trillion dollar market cap company created by PE.
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This is a really fascinating slide from a16z.
The bottom quartile of PE funds are better than the bottom quartile of venture funds - you'd expect this.
But the top decile of venture capital and private equity funds perform nearly just as well!
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This is correct. Most of these efforts hide behind greater good principles, but overlook the practicalities of the consequences of adopting these bills, including the second- and third-order issues that would likely make the bill a net negative in the long run.
Palmer Luckey@PalmerLuckey
What you are saying is not true in any meaningful way. You can say whatever you want as an untethered hypothetical, but here in reality, what you are actually advocating for is NOT a 1-2% wealth tax for established billionaires - it is a 5% tax calculated all in one year, payable (with interest!) over the subsequent five. That puts massive risk on founders with zero risk for you or Califorjia - as I just pointed out, one market correction (or worst case but sadly common, the company goes under) and I am homeless on the street with literally billions of dollars in debt that cannot be discharged even in bankruptcy. Nor does this initiative you are pushing have ANY sort of provision for founders like me with illiquid shares in unprofitable companies - if I have to come up with billions of dollars, how can I possibly keep putting all our profit back into new R&D that keeps our warfighters safer? You are effectively forcing companies to immediately pivot into profit obsessesion over mission or long-term sustainability! Again, you say that isn't what you support, but that claim is not consistent with what you are actually doing. This is all extraordinarily frustrating politician-speak that nobody in the industry is dumb enough to fall for. It is the same as saying you support reasonable speed limits with higher speeds for rural areas even as you explicitly push for a national 55mph speed limit, all the while claiming with a smile that you "support" a wide range of speeds. No, you don't, and no, you don't.
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Quentin Johnston not receiving a single target in a game in which the Chargers scored 30+ is beyond bewildering.
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samir kaji retweetledi
If Israel was to debut a top secret night-undetectable remote assassination device, they’d obviously first kill the pro-Israel influencer in front of 10k people and reveal the clues only to the woman who staked her entire professional reputation on Brigitte Macrone being a man
Candace Owens@RealCandaceO
Right about now I think that whoever made the decision to assassinate Charlie Kirk is recognizing that it was a terrible mistake. They thought they were going to “grassy knoll” it. Instead they awakened the entire world.
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Have said this before, but venture debt isnt cheap insurance or a substitute for equity. Proceed carefully.
That said, unfair to characterize it as bad as its a good financial tool when used to support healthy metrics.
The issue is the (mis)use, not the tool itself.
Paul Graham@paulg
Jessica: What happened to his company? Me: Venture debt. Jessica: Oh.
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Are we in a Ai investing bubble? Yes
Are the top Ai companies going to be bigger than we imagine? Yes
Thats the reality, and why we see the valuations we do.
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Any “top vc” list is useless as the methodology is almost always flawed due to data limitations
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@aileenlee coined the term ‘unicorn’ in 2013 for those rare $1B startups.
Today, the more practical definition of a Unicorn is now $5B.
I also bet that within 5 years, we will see the first IPO of a company that debuts at a $1T+ market cap
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Anyone starting/building a company who believes they will not spend nearly every waking hour thinking about it is delusional. Building a company requires obsessing over the problem. The company will become your identity as a founder, whether you want it or not.
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The difference between 2025 and 2021 is that in 2021, nearly every company raised at "crazy" valuations. Not it's the top 1-3%. Everyone else is still struggling.
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Competing as an emerging VC is tough.
Competition comes from peers and deeper-pocketed funds, and performance dispersion is nearly two times higher than that of larger funds.
Consistency requires a clear plan around sourcing, picking, and winning. Each one requires a unique skill and plan. @nakul, who spun out of Lightspeed and I talked about how to create a "Machine" when it comes to building a firm. Great tips for EMs and LPs. See below for the learnings in our pod
Nakul Mandan@nakul
Really enjoyed this conversation with my friend @Samirkaji on how we’re building @AudaciousHQ at a time when the VC market has gone from a niche, boutique industry to a mainstream one with hundreds of competitors + capital having become an easily available commodity for the best founders: open.spotify.com/episode/1OHRrU…
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samir kaji retweetledi
Really enjoyed this conversation with my friend @Samirkaji on how we’re building @AudaciousHQ at a time when the VC market has gone from a niche, boutique industry to a mainstream one with hundreds of competitors + capital having become an easily available commodity for the best founders: open.spotify.com/episode/1OHRrU…
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samir kaji retweetledi
Haven't seen too much buzz around this podcast episode but I thought it was one of the best episodes in recent times, for those of us obsessed with the craft of venture, to learn how a GP @nakul thought through design / strategic choices to position @AudaciousHQ in the venture landscape in a crowded seed market.
Will appeal / be useful to both ambitious young VCs obsessed w venture craft as well as senior VCs looking to start their own funds :)
I really liked how they decided to use talent / recruiting as a key strategic lever, and how they effectuate (such an ugly word I know!) it by giving Samantha Price @hellosprice the head of talent a seat at the high table, and not having bonuses for the talent team (they don't want recruiters to push candidates down founders' throats, and misalign incentives).
The other was @nakul's clarity around why he wants to pursue a platform / 'machine' approach as opposed to an artisanal approach.
Recommended for a rare view into how an emerging GP crafts a strategy for his firm. White spaces are few and far between in venture today, so it is fascinating to see Audacious hit upon one. Venture has looong feedback loops so it will take time for us to know if their strategy was successful, but I felt it has the potential for success given the thought and craft given to it.
Nakul Mandan@nakul
Really enjoyed this conversation with my friend @Samirkaji on how we’re building @AudaciousHQ at a time when the VC market has gone from a niche, boutique industry to a mainstream one with hundreds of competitors + capital having become an easily available commodity for the best founders: open.spotify.com/episode/1OHRrU…
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