Tom Fehring
4 posts

Tom Fehring
@Tom_Fehring
AI risk @AIUnderwriting. Formerly forecasting @OpenAI, even more formerly an actuary. Opinions my own.
San Francisco, CA Katılım Mart 2026
95 Takip Edilen12 Takipçiler

@patio11 In some sense this shouldn't matter because these policies would often be positive expected utility even if they were negative expected value. But it may matter to some, so.
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A relevant fact to some of @patio11's readers: these policies can be positive-EV to you if you simply keep paying your premium. Oversimplifying, this is possible because many other policyholders will stop paying, and insurers account for this in pricing.
Patrick McKenzie@patio11
My annual exhortation: You, reader in the tech industry, should have plural million dollars of term life insurance coverage outside of that offered through employer. You should also strongly consider own-occupation long term disability insurance.
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@reneromero08 @tszzl "Almost all of the benefits of superintelligence will be captured by the public" and "trillions of dollars' worth of benefits from superintelligence will be captured by the labs" are compatible claims.
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@tszzl Do you not see how this contradicts the "this isn't a bubble" narrative?
If "it's being commodified" why would shareholders and investors expect more in returns?
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renaissance rationalization is a process that commodified itself rapidly: despite the europeans discovering most technology during the early modern period it spread everywhere within a few centuries, and the rate of spread has been increasing dramatically
knowledge of the scientific frontier dissipates around the world faster as science has enabled better communication technologies. it’s getting even faster with INTELLIGENCE technologies which actually explain themselves and help you build them
as we approach more powerful intelligence, the ability to train powerful models is self commodifying rather than building a huge and runaway advantage for a handful of recursive self improvers. this is one reason why you should expect almost all of the benefits of superintelligence to be captured by the public
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