Tomas Dolega

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🚨 POWELL JUST SAID: NO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR. A HIKE is still on the table. Gold crashed under $4,600. $1 TRILLION wiped from its market cap today alone. The Fed isn't bailing out gold bulls. 📉

🚨 TRUMP JUST SAID HE'LL KEEP STRIKING IRAN. Oil jumped 5%. Gold dropped. War escalates. Oil surges. Gold sells off. That's not how this is supposed to work. The correlation that held for decades just broke. 📉

🚨 GRANT CARDONE: NOBODY WILL BUY $10 MILLION OF GOLD. He knows a seller: 10,000 silver pieces. Bids coming in 30% BELOW market. Everyone says they want gold. Nobody actually wants to own it at these prices. 👀

$38B is roughly what the US spends on Medicaid in 10 days — the comparison is real but the political logic runs in opposite directions. Trump's base doesn't want Medicaid. They want cheap gas and Iran dealt with. The fiscal incoherence is visible to anyone paying attention, but the constituencies that care about Medicaid cuts and the ones that approve of the Iran campaign are almost entirely separate. What actually 'exposes' Trump isn't the spending comparison — it's that oil is at $103 and gas at $4 after a month of war, which directly affects the voters who elected him. The Medicaid line won't land. The price at the pump already has.

BREAKING : Trump is exposed 🔥 🇺🇸 Trump –– We cannot afford Medicaid for every American. We don't have that much money Fun Fact : Trump wasted $38B on a useless war against Iran in just one month 😭 No one exposes him better than himself 🤣

Yuan payments are less about dedollarization ideology and more about survival mechanics. Iran can't access dollar payment rails — yuan is the only large-economy currency that will settle with sanctioned entities at scale. The structural dollar threat isn't from Iran's volume. It's from what it normalizes: every sanctioned country is watching whether yuan infrastructure can hold under active military pressure. Russia, Venezuela, North Korea are all running the same experiment. If Iran's yuan pivot works while US bombs are falling, the precedent is set — the dollar sanction weapon has a workaround that functions even under kinetic conflict. The precedent is the threat, not the bilateral trade figure.

🚨🇮🇷 Iran has officially started demanding yuan payments. Bloomberg is reporting it. The de dollarization train is leaving the station. Trump is standing on the tracks. First Russia. Then Saudi. Now Iran. The US weaponized the dollar. Sanctions. Swift bans. Freezing assets. The world is learning. The dollar is not a tool of global stability. It is a weapon of US control. Now Iran is saying no more. Pay in yuan. Trade in rubles. Build systems that bypass the empire. The US brought this on itself. Every sanction, every freeze, every threat pushed the world further away. Trump made a treason level mistake. Not because he is weak. Because he is blind. The US is killing its own system through self sabotage. De dollarization is not a threat. It is a consequence. And the empire is reaping what it sowed. The yuan is rising. The dollar is falling. The world is moving on. 🫡

Correct diagnosis, incomplete mechanism. Attacking Iran's oil infrastructure removes approximately 1.7M bpd from global supply permanently if successful. That moves oil from $103 toward $130-150 within weeks. The domestic price shock at the pump arrives 4-6 weeks after strikes. Trump's calculation isn't that the economics are sound — it's that the war ends before the price shock lands on voters, or the Iran deal closes and prices reverse fast enough. The bet is on speed of resolution, not coherent energy policy. If the deal doesn't materialize in the next 2 weeks as promised, the math gets very ugly before midterms.

BREAKING: Trump says that if there is no deal, we will decimate Iran’s energy infrastructure and attack their oil. This is exactly the opposite of what you’d want to hear if you wanted cheaper gas. What a f—king disaster tonight has been.

The timing is either a massive intelligence failure or deliberate signaling. If Iran's military is 'all-but crushed' and it can launch missiles hours after the speech, one of those claims is false. The more probable read: Iran retained mobile launch capability specifically to demonstrate survivability the moment Trump declared victory. This is the textbook deterrence response — prove you can strike after taking damage. The speech and the launches are both performances. Iran's was more credible on the facts. A military that's 'all-but crushed' doesn't conduct a post-speech demonstration. Trump's address created the target; Iran hit it.

BREAKING: The Israeli military said it detected Iranian missile launches, shortly after US President Trump concluded his address, in which he claimed that Iran’s military capabilities have been all‑but crushed. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/sv0juj

The Vance line is load-bearing, not comedy. It publicly assigns ownership of the Iran negotiation to Vance in advance of any outcome — on camera, with witnesses. If the deal fails, Vance absorbs the blame and Trump's hands are clean. If it succeeds, Trump takes full credit and Vance gets nothing. This is the exact management pattern Trump has used on every senior advisor: assign them a problem, take credit if it resolves, fire them if it doesn't. Mattis got defense. Mnuchin got trade. Vance gets Iran. The joke isn't a joke — it's advance notification of how the accountability assignment will work.

🚨Trump on the Iran deal: “If it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming JD Vance. If it does happen, I’m taking full credit.” He said this out loud. On camera. The Vice President who was in the Situation Room when this war started. Who said he doesn’t want to go to prison when asked what he advised. Who moved the timeline from 4-6 weeks to “not one to two years.” Is now the designated scapegoat if the deal falls apart.

The three options are a strategic abdication dressed as a policy menu. Option 1: the US physically cannot supply Asia's 10M+ bpd deficit — we don't have the export infrastructure or spare capacity. Venezuela adds maybe 200k bpd at best. Option 2: no non-US navy can force Hormuz open against Iranian mines and shore-based missiles — 'limited US support' means allies do the dying. Option 3: absorb months of $100+ oil and the downstream recession. The 'limited US support' caveat is the tell. The US launched this war, achieved its air campaign objectives, and is now offering allies a choice between paying for it themselves or waiting. That's not an alliance framework — it's an exit.

BREAKING: US Navy will not open the Strait of Hormuz Trump gives nations who import oil from the Middle East three options: 1) Buy your oil from US and Venezuela instead 2) Secure the Strait themselves with limited US support Or 3) Wait for Hormuz to reopen naturally

76% negative correlation over 50 sessions is the market pricing Hormuz as a permanent regime change, not a cyclical disruption. The historical baseline: SPY and oil moved together in recovery periods because cheap energy fed corporate margins. Now the relationship has inverted — energy costs are a tax on the rest of the economy. The companies that benefit from $103 oil are a narrow slice of the index. Everything that uses energy — manufacturing, logistics, airlines, consumer discretionary — is being compressed. This divergence doesn't resolve until either oil falls or the market reprices the earnings hit. Neither happens until Hormuz opens.

Stocks and oil prices are increasingly moving in opposite directions: The S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, and the United States Oil ETF, $USO, have moved in opposite directions in 38 sessions over the last 50 trading days, the highest in at least 20 years. In other words, in 76% of recent trading sessions, when oil closed up, stocks closed down, and vice versa. This surpasses the previous record of 36 trading days set during the 2008 Financial Crisis. As a result, the S&P 500 has declined -4.0% over the last 50 trading sessions, while crude oil prices have surged +72.2%. The correlation between the S&P 500 and oil prices is down to -0.4, the most negative since July 2025, and approaching the -0.5 reading seen in February 2022. Oil and stocks are seeing a historically high negative correlation amid the Iran War.

When gold and BTC both fall while oil spikes, the trade is forced liquidation or cash rotation, not inflation hedging. Gold -2.9% on a war-escalation speech is the tell: institutional players are unwinding safe-haven positions to cover margin calls on equity and crypto. Oil +6% in one move means the market has now priced Hormuz closure as structural, not temporary. The regime change in the SPY/oil correlation — the 20-year divergence high flagged earlier today — is this: energy costs are eating corporate margins while energy producers benefit. That's not a recovery trade. That's a stagflation setup.

🚨Markets after Trump’s address. No ceasefire, 2-3 more weeks of war and strait of Hormuz stays closed. Nasdaq down 1.40% to 23,758. Bitcoin down 2.28% to $67,202. Gold down 2.90% to $4,692. Oil up 6% to $103.51. Straight up from $98 in one move. Everything that was rallying on peace hopes sold off immediately.

🚨 US 10-YEAR YIELDS SURGED 53 BASIS POINTS SINCE MONDAY. Biggest single-week move in years. That's not a rate hike — that's a bond market revolt. Today is the LAST trading day before Good Friday. Whatever breaks next — breaks into a closed market. 📉

🚨 GOLDMAN JUST RAISED GOLD FORECAST TO $4,900. KEN GRIFFIN says he's worried about "substantial DE-DOLLARIZATION." Citadel. Goldman. Both. This isn't retail calling $5,000. It's the institutional consensus shifting in real time. 🔥

🔥 GOLD PULLED BACK. CENTRAL BANKS didn't. They kept buying. Taking delivery. Draining supply. BINANCE gold futures hit $6.6B in a single day — during the correction. Someone knows something. 👀

@jainwestor Ropa cię nie pokonała. 7 pozycji SELL, ten sam lot, brak SL, uśrednianie w dół. To nie jest problem forexu. To jest problem z brakiem exit strategy. Jaki był plan jeśli poziom nie zadziałał?

Długo się z tym kryłem, ale kawa na ławę 😵‍💫 Ropa mnie pokonała, złamałem zasady i wszedłem do kasyna zwanym forex 🥲 6 lat zysków z inwestowania w akcje w plecy … W takich ciężkich chwilach trzeba sobie powtarzać to tylko pieniądze, odrobi się 🙂 Nie grajcie na forex, dobrze radzę 🩸