TommyDrownUnder

Predictions of One Nation becoming the biggest “conservative” seat-winner keep missing one key variable - tactical voting by younger progressives. Younger voters have normalised it. They don’t treat elections as a loyalty test; they treat them as a risk-management exercise. In teal contests we’ve already seen centre-left voters preference strategically to shape the final two. The same logic applies if One Nation looks like a genuine chance in a conservative seat, where a huge numbers of younger Labor/Greens voters won’t just “vote for their team” and hope for the best, they’ll preference to block the outcome they fear most. One Nation. We’ve seen the blueprint overseas. In the Caerphilly Senedd by-election in October 2025, voters consolidated around the best-placed progressive option and Labour’s vote collapsed, in what was widely interpreted as a “stop Reform” moment. Bottom line. If One Nation surges into contention, don’t assume the centre-left vote just sits still. Preferential systems + hyper-connected younger voters = real last-mile coordination and that can be the difference between a One Nation upset and a One Nation ceiling. Young progressives will end up saving many Liberal and Nationals Party candidates.