Tobias Andersen

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Tobias Andersen

Tobias Andersen

@TonandDK

A diary to retrace my own thinking about Mr. Market. Not financial advice. Ignore this profile and invest in a cheap ETF instead

Katılım Aralık 2015
183 Takip Edilen111 Takipçiler
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
SPIVA: about 85% of active fund managers underperformed their benchmark indices in a 10 year period. In what other field can an amateur with no education or training outperform 85% of professionals with fine titles and high salaries? This is the biggest joke in modern society.
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
The debate around token optimization confirms this hypothesis. Why use frontiere models for simple problems (90% of queries)?
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
the number of AI models keeps rising. Grok, Perplexity (what happened with them btw?), MUSE, Deepseek, GLM-5.2, Gemini, MAI and so on. This competition will lower prices, but the cloud providers (especially $AMZN and $MSFT who has a diversified offering of AI models) will benefit
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
The risks of OpenAI and Anthropic are completely overlooked. The focus on frontiere models is too big. 2/3 hyperscalers (who are the toll booths for compute) has all the incentives in the world to commoditize and diversify their AI offerings. In addition,
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
Google will most likely meet lawsuits from regulators around the world, since Gemini scrabe info from websites without referring users to them. This has resulted in a collapse of visitors on many websites and is referred to as "the end of the world wide web" as we know it.
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
$GOOGL is a fantastic company and will likely do great. But the sentiment change around the stock is exceptional. A year ago it was priced to death of search and heavy scrutiny by DOJ. Now it's priced for dominance and free of regulation worries. Some risks still persists.
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Hidden Monopolies
Hidden Monopolies@HiddenMonopoly·
For those who miss these two guys at BRK's AGM. (Anyone know how to manufacture such a brick-building box?)
Hidden Monopolies tweet media
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
$MSFT My biggest concern is concentration risk around OpenAI, contributing to about 50% of their backlog. But recent alterations from april, transitioning to 20% direct revenue share to $MSFT, as well as more reliance on own models tells me that mgmt is in top of this
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
$UBER CEO Dara Khosrowshahi late 2019 during a major app overhaul, stated that their goal was to transition Uber from a pure ride-hailing app into the "operating system for everyday life." That is optionality.
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
$SE As an investor I'm glad to see it recover a little. BUT, both the recent sell-off and the current recovery are all momentum based. The fundamentals are still the same, the chart just looks nicer. Stupidity, just opposite directed.
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Míceál
Míceál@superfluouslad·
@BourbonCap Need to be careful, Github Copilot was cheap and good and they rug pulled us with the new consumption charges. Our company is paying them while we actively look for other enterprise options for day to day coding.
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Bourbon Capital
Bourbon Capital@BourbonCap·
$MSFT GitHub just had the best month ever We're definitely going to zero but growing +20%
Bourbon Capital tweet media
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
It is such a shame that Microsoft's relationship with OpenAI is so strained. The way that MSFT gets its stock up more than 200 points is to merge with them paid for by a giant equity and debt deal. The real price of OpenAI will start to go down if they don't get a deal done.
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Tobias Andersen retweetledi
prefshares
prefshares@PrefShares·
1/ $UBER at ~$72 feels mispriced. Stripping out the minority stakes and the delivery business, and you're probably paying ~10x 2027E EBIT for a mobility segment set to compound EBIT ~20%+ through 2030. The market is pricing an AV apocalypse the data doesn't seem to support.
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Investor Denis
Investor Denis@InvestorDenis·
I used to think of $UBER as a platform for ride hailing, food delivery, and robotaxis. Now it’s becoming an enterprise platform thanks to Uber for Business. It manages employee travel business meals corporate shuttles client transportation Wild stats about Uber for Business from the Q1 2026 earnings call: $5 billion of annualized Gross Bookings, up 45% YoY Clients are 300,000 organizations globally Over 400 spend > $1 million annually Over 40 spend > $10 million annually By 2028, $UBER for Business expects to Serve 1 million organizations globally Exceed $10 billion in Gross Bookings While $UBER stock has gotten hammered over the past few months, the fundamentals have improved. If $UBER continues to compound at this pace, the market is underestimating what it could look like in a few years.
Investor Denis tweet media
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
My bull thesis for $UBER: UBER may become the Amazon of services. Having products across mobility, delivery of food, groceries and retail, hotel and flight bookings, the UBER ONE membership will be a no-brainer. Margins will be razor thin, but the real money lies in advertising.
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
$UBER had more than 3.6 billion rides in Q1 2026. Waymo is doing great, but in comparison they had 6 million trips. That is a 600 times difference. And, mobility only accounts for about 55% of UBER's revenue...
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
Respect the honesty and transparency. Not all investments turns out great. That's the game of it.
ASHA@asha_shar

This is an important email I sent today to all employees at XBOX: Team, We are beginning the most significant restructure in XBOX history. After careful consideration, I've made the difficult decision to reduce our team by approximately 3,200 throughout FY27. This will include approximately 1,600 role eliminations today, and in addition, four studios will leave XBOX to new management. I recognize that a year-long restructuring creates additional challenges. Unfortunately, it is not possible to make all the necessary changes in a single day, and I wanted to be direct about the scale. I know this is painful. These changes will directly affect people who have poured their creativity into building XBOX. Many joined us through acquisitions, while others were recruited here, or sought us out because they loved this industry and loved XBOX. Today's decisions do not reflect their talent or dedication. Our business today is not healthy. We are operating at margins that are 3–10x lower than comparable platform and publishing businesses. We entered Gen 9 with a smaller install base and a higher cost structure. To grow, we bet on Game Pass, multi-platform, and a broader portfolio of content. While those businesses have created meaningful value, they did not grow at the pace we expected. As that happened, our core business weakened, and we added more teams, more investment, and more time, hoping for a better outcome. And now the industry is facing the most severe hardware crisis in its history. We must reset XBOX. First, we will reset our content portfolio. Since 2018, we have aggressively expanded our studio portfolio while the number of games created each month across the industry now outpaces the last ten years combined. We now find ourselves competing not only with the largest publishers, but also with smaller independent studios. It is neither possible nor desirable to own every great independent studio. We have also learned that we are not the best home for every type of studio; in a typical year, we lost 64 cents for every dollar we invested. As we reset XBOX, we will help independent creators succeed by providing open development tools and audiences to realize their vision. Compulsion Games and Double Fine Productions will return to management and transition to independent studios with their IP, catalog, and runway for their next games. Ninja Theory and Undead Labs have entered terms to join new ownership with funding to complete and grow Senua and State of Decay 3. In France, Arkane’s management is beginning required consultation with its Works Council to review potential strategic options. We are also making reductions across other units, and in some cases, shifting investment to focus on higher priority projects. These changes vary in size across Activision, Bethesda/ZeniMax, Blizzard, King, Mojang, and XBOX Game Studios. None of our first party publicly announced games or projects are being cancelled as part of these reductions. In addition, Mojang and King will now report directly to me. These two studios have increasingly become platforms and are our largest by monthly active players. They bring critical geographic, demographic, and differentiation to XBOX. Second, we will reset our platform. We know that great technology gets better when it gets simpler, not bigger. Today, in some parts of the company, work passes through as many as 14 layers of management. Our platform teams are 40% larger than they were at the start of this generation, even as our player base and playtime have declined. That complexity has slowed decisions, blurred accountability, and made it harder to deliver for players. As we reset XBOX, we will simplify. We will reduce management layers to no more than 5, and where possible, 3. We will deliver success through a flatter organization that is built around makers (individual contributors focused on building), player-coaches (leaders who remain deeply involved in the work while developing their teams), and directly responsible individuals (DRIs) who own key decisions and outcomes. And we will streamline how we work across our tools, with a cleaner code base, shared services, and 50% reduced vendor spend. Third, we are resetting how we operate. As XBOX grew our headcount, we became more fragmented. Teams, studios, and functions often operate independently, and it became harder to work towards a shared goal, make the right tradeoffs, and get things done. For the first time, we are establishing a Chief Operating Officer with end-to-end P&L responsibility across content, hardware, platform, and services. Helen Chiang has been promoted to this role and will report directly to me. Over nearly two decades at XBOX, Helen has helped build some of our most important businesses, from XBOX Live to leading Mojang and the Minecraft franchise. She will bring our businesses together under one operating model, making sure we make clear investment decisions, learn from our successes and failures, and hold ourselves accountable for results. Thank you, Dave McCarthy, who is retiring after 17 years with XBOX. Dave has played a defining role in building the platform that millions of players rely on every day and has been a trusted partner through many of the biggest moments in XBOX's history. We wish him all the best. These changes are about a bigger future for XBOX, not a smaller one. The next decade of gaming will be larger, more global, and more creative than anything we've seen before. This year, we'll invest as much in XBOX as we ever have, but we'll invest with greater focus, greater discipline, and greater clarity, all in service of making XBOX where the world plays and creates. I want XBOX to be one of the few companies that entertains more than a billion people each day and gives everyone the opportunity to create and connect. I know we can achieve this goal. XBOX has many of the most beloved franchises in entertainment history, talented studios around the world, and we will return to growth in 2027. History is full of companies that mistake longevity for inevitability. We will not be one of them. Asha

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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
The only real moat $UBER would have in this regard is a membership model with earned Credits across the service offering on the Uber platform.
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
Food, retail, hotels etc are unique products which costumers like to browse. No one are browsing a car for ride hailing. They don't care about the colour, look or car brand of the ride. They just want it cheap and fast. This makes ride hailing apps very exposed to AI agents.
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Tobias Andersen
Tobias Andersen@TonandDK·
$UBER The problem with ride hailing is, that the product is not unique. The costumer don't care if they get an Uber, lyft, waymo or tesla. They just want cheap, safe, fast and reliable. An AI agent would most likely be able to find the cheapest and fastest car across platforms.
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