Investor in chaos and shortages

X is becoming unusable to get reliable information... The monetization is creating a powerful incentive to post "*breaking* FAKE news" ... this is all while everyone is asking "@ Grok is this real?" because no one can confirm anything. Public Townhall is slowly becoming Misinformation Central.

3/ The IRGC's strategy is clear: humiliate the US President, bet on weakness, and hope $150-200 oil panics the world into letting them keep leverage. They want supremacy by surviving. I don't buy that this administration folds like the JCPOA era. That deal left Iran with advanced ballistic missiles and hundreds of kg of near-weapons-grade material. Trump/Vance/Rubio have been crystal clear: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. Full stop.

60%. Capital protection. I'd rather miss a +10% then to have to do a +50% to neutralize a - 33%. It's just math. And math I like. With 60% cash I reduce the downside and upside by 60%, but if a crash occurs the 60% cash will easily give a +180% if buying around a crash bottom. I win in both cases. I'm now betting 60% we go down, and 40% we go up in the coming months. Let's see.

Worked in semiconductors for many years. Usage of helium for making computer chips is ubiquitous and required. We just blew up 30% of the world supply. No helium means no AI chips. No AI chips means no AI data centers. No data centers means no AI bubble. =Market crash.

What is historically super cheap here (cheaper now than last 10 years)on a NTM basis? $CSU / $TOI $MELI $NVDA What else?

Shout out to all the folks who are positive YTD without having much exposure to optics/memory/defence. If you belong to this category, what did you get right this year?

Shout out to all the folks who are positive YTD without having much exposure to optics/memory/defence. If you belong to this category, what did you get right this year?

It really is that simple... we're re-running the 1970s stagflation playbook on steroids. It's an energy shock, compounded by an industrial materials shock, and soon to be compounded by a food supply crisis. This is all going to eat into a consumer wallet already ravaged by five years inflation, like a giant tax on the economy that sucks purchasing power out of thin air. Oh, and the top 10% that's kept the economy afloat on the wealth effect? Kiss that goodbye, too. It's a recipe for a global recession. What will work? Own the things that are in shortage, and short everything else. Don't overcomplicate it.

I run several strategies across different accounts. Includes options of different timeframes obviously. And I like to build baskets in various themes. For example right now, I own over 30 energy stocks and another 20 or so options positions. Last year, I had close to 100 in spec growth alone. It’s the way to do it in my experience. You just have to have a plan.

Memory makers bloodbath tomorrow (likely). It a huge progress and is an step forward in removing the memory bottleneck. Now, it will put more pressure on logic side though