Track Phantom

When there is an inquiry, as a horse player, do you prefer to see the pan view and head on angle of the infraction in real time and slow motion, or would you rather look at this?

@Rennietime @LaurelPark I'll be honest I haven't dug into this but it seems weird that tracks can have $120,000 maiden races, $5,000 claiming races with a $25,000 purse yet need to have such high takeout. Not saying Laurel has those purses but something isn't right with the financials across the board.

Take out for @LaurelPark race track. It’s really embarrassing and gross. One of main reasons I never play this dump unless in a contest. Like just put out a message saying we hate horse players go home. Jesus man

I have a simple application (highlighted in the screen shot for the 8th at MNR) that highlights in green the horse most “live” in a race relative to the will-pays and the morning line. When I have time, I’ll manually adjust the morning line if it’s clearly off — as it was in this case. But I didn’t need to adjust it here to recognize that, even under a reasonable morning line, the #2 was by far the most live horse in the race, with the #1 clearly second. I’m not talking about the ability to predict in-race betting fluctuations. I’m talking about the extraordinary precision of the players betting enough money to shape the final odds. In both the will-pays and the win pool — and likely other pools as well — the #2 was being bet as though the race had already been run. People who believe CAW teams are merely spreading money around and knocking down overlays late are missing what’s actually happening. The #2 sitting at 7-2 as the gates opened was not an overlay. Other horses on the board were (unless of course you knew the final running order. In that case, #2 would have been an overlay at 1-9). The fact that the #2 continued taking money at post tells me this wasn’t spreading money around to break even — it was sophisticated handicapping paired with toteboard shaping power. Ironically, this race perfectly illustrates my frustration with where the game is heading. I had the only winning Super Hi-5 ticket and still walked away irritated. Having to incorporate the opinion of others into my own process goes against everything I love about horse racing. To me, the soul of the game has always been independent thought, pattern recognition, and forming your own opinion. I don't mind incorporporating betting steam but it should be nominal. It's anything but that now. At this point, you’d be foolish to completely ignore what the smart money is telling you. So no, I’m not impressed by people who can simply explain how will-pays foreshadow final odds. I'm 10 miles past that. What concerns me is how frighteningly accurate the smart money has become. And eventually, if this trend continues, they won't leave any meat on the bone.

@TrackPhantom Guess what the implied p3 odds were on the 2 horse: 5/2. And correct, they make cake on the rebates.

I love how people say that CAW's are betting to break even. That is the stupidest thing ever uttered.

By the way, I'm not stupid enough to not tag along.

40 years ago almost to the minute I was at the track for th first time. It was the day after prom that year and a bunch of us went. I knew nothing about horse racing. I'm sure some would say that hasn't changed. I bet $5 to win on the 2,3 and 4 in this last race. When it ran 3,4,2 I was jumping around like an imbecile thinking I had won a ton.

@pawluk_michael Or they can law 50M on the infield and let the birds defecate on it. They aren't interested in a fresh start with players. They're interested in money.

You know what would be a great way to promote and open the “new” Belmont Park? NYRA should announce the total cessation of CAW’s into pools beginning with opening day of the new Belmont. It would be a monster opening day with massive hype and a chance to start fresh with players

@drshillito So is the 7th at Mountaineer Park tonight.

You can kick around the Preakness all you want this year, but one thing you can't deny, it's a fascinating handicapping puzzle and lucrative wagering affair.

No. In fact, horse racing is just the beginning. What we’re seeing is the result of technological advancements creating advantages for a small group with the resources, data, and infrastructure to capitalize on them. Horse racing is simply an early example of a trend that will touch nearly every walk of life sooner rather than later.

Is it possible for the horse racing game to once again be the greatest gambling game in the world? I often dream (fantasize) about a day where the CAWS get shutdown & we (the real horseplayers) go back to battling each other on a level playing field. I miss yall

@fatbaldguyracin I don't think the high end trainers care about a $1.5M race (or whatever it is) when it is contrasted against the earning potential at the breeding shed. I doubt they are colluding. I don't think they really care.

Is it time to wonder if the trainers and owners in Horse Racing are colluding to not run in the Preakness with their best horses in order to force a move ? Collusion is a very good question at this point ? What you all think ?

@ZhouTony Who is going to be booking fixed odds? I doubt tracks will allow themselves to be fleeced by a game that his little to no ability to stop cheating.

@DelavonRaff Well, it wasn't a serious bet, that is for sure. It was either something like the offshore thing or a flat out mistake.

@TrackPhantom I'd buy that logic back in the day but what kind of offshore books would open themselves up to that kind of loss. I believe they all have CAPPED payouts on all wagers, and some have capped wagering amounts. Not to mention, do it a couple times and you're flagged, booted, unpaid

Mistake bet or someone playing with the odds to bet offshore where they don't comingle bets.

AQU R9: Trainer Horacio De Paz has had 3 runners come back off similar layoffs routing on the turf in allw at AQU and at odds of 6-1 or less. He won all 3. He has #5 A Little at First

@justindew If the bar is "some guy said" you can find every opinion under the sun.

For some reason, even in this day and age of rampant absurdity in the court of public opinion, it still shocks me that adults who follow sports can have the opinion that only horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby should be allowed in the other Triple Crown races (see California Chrome’s owner and those who agreed with him), while at the same time other adults feel that if a horse wins the Derby, it must also run in the Preakness (see that moron who appeared on my feed somewhere last week). Should I be surprised by this?

For all of those that talk about not wanting to disrupt tradition of the Triple Crown (it's meant to be hard so don't change it) have some explaining to do. This is a 6 horse Ky Derby field. Citation beat 3 foes in the Preakness. He beat 7 in the Belmont. In other words, he beat less foes in the entire Triple Crown than Golden Tempo beat in the Derby.

Breezed 5-furlongs in 59 3/5ths one day before his prep race for the Belmont Stakes. And he worked 1;12 3/5ths one day before the Belmont Stakes. Count Fleet trained harder. Turned in a fast breeze at 4f and came out a few hours later & breezed a stiff 10f in the same morning.

@PeterBerryPicks That is good news. Hope the worst is behind you now. Hang in there!!

@tactical_speed @TwinSpires @NTamm1215 Good call. Snow Chief in the Preakness in 1986 was also a decent example. He was in the top 6 pressing a 45.1 half in the Ky Derby. The top 6 finished the bottom 6 after running on that pace. Snow Chief won the Preakness.

@TrackPhantom @TwinSpires @NTamm1215 I felt that way about Two Phil's after the 2023 Derby. The pace horses got cooked but he carried his speed a LONG way. Then he came back and romped in the G3 Ohio Derby. The ankle injury took him out but in my mind he had the same type of performance.

"𝑹𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒈𝒂𝒅𝒆'𝒔 𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒍 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 𝒃𝒍𝒂𝒎𝒆 𝒊𝒔 𝒘𝒓𝒐𝒏𝒈" Not so fast. On Weekend Rewind, Kentucky Derby morning line maker @NTamm1215 delivers a STRONG take on why the #1 gate wasn’t the reason Renegade came up short 🌹🏇 Agree or disagree? ⬇️Watch the full episode 🔗spr.ly/6018BBcKVm