Trader Caraxes

🐉 Welcome to Trader Caraxes Market structure, liquidity and technical analysis across global markets. Forex • Crypto • Gold • Indices • Stocks What I share: • Technical chart setups • Breakout / fake breakout notes • Market structure analysis • Macro-aware commentary • Key levels and scenario mapping Telegram: t.me/+oHxetKgxrQg4O… YTD / NFA

@MarioNawfal This is not just maritime regulation. If Hormuz turns into a permit-and-toll structure, the market will read it as energy risk, shipping risk and inflation risk at the same time. Oil may react first, but the second-order move usually shows up in yields and risk assets.

🚨🇮🇷 Iran just created a "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to formally regulate transit through the Strait of Hormuz... The PGSA's claimed jurisdiction extends across the entire Strait. Eastern boundary: a line from Iran's Kuh Mobarak to south of UAE's Fujairah. Western boundary: a line from Qeshm Island to Umm al-Qaiwain in the UAE. Vessels transiting must coordinate with the PGSA and obtain a permit. The toll mechanism is now operational with institutional cover. Iran created a regulatory body designed to make the new Hormuz regime look like normal maritime governance. Trump and Xi explicitly agreed at the Beijing summit that the Strait "must remain open" and Iran "shouldn't be able to exact payments." Iran's response: launch a permanent regulatory authority with claimed jurisdiction extending into UAE-adjacent waters. Source: Iran's PGSA Announcement

@MarioNawfal Oil is reacting like the deal is already priced in, but the risk is not fully gone until there is an actual agreement. A lower oil print helps inflation and yields short term. But if Hormuz risk stays alive, this can flip from relief to risk-off very quickly.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Oil is sliding as the U.S.-Iran talks enter their final stretch. Brent crude dropped to $105 a barrel and U.S. futures settled at $98, a nearly 6 percent fall, as traders watch the negotiations closely. Trump said talks are in the "final stages" but warned of "harder" attacks if Iran doesn't agree to a deal. Investors aren't fully buying the optimism though. Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, supplies are thinning, and until something is actually signed, the market is going to stay nervous. Source: Al Jazeera

@DeItaone Treasuries needed a relief catalyst. Lower oil risk helps, but 10Y yields above 4.5% still keep pressure on equities, housing and credit. This looks more like temporary breathing room than a full reset.

TREASURIES RALLY ON HOPE OF US–IRAN DEAL U.S. Treasury prices jumped and yields fell after President Donald Trump said Washington and Tehran were in the “final stages” of negotiations, raising hopes of easing tensions in global energy markets. Lower oil-price fears helped calm inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields down by about 10 basis points and weakening the dollar. Traders also reduced bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Despite the rally, long-term Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs as investors remain cautious about the durability of any potential US–Iran agreement.

@KobeissiLetter SpaceX IPO would not be a normal tech listing. This is defense, satellites, communications, AI infrastructure and space economics wrapped into one market event. The question is not only valuation. It is how much liquidity this IPO absorbs.

BREAKING: SpaceX has officially filed its S-1 registration statement with the US SEC ahead of its record-setting IPO. Details include: 1. SpaceX intends to list its shares on the Nasdaq under ticker symbol $SPCX 2. SpaceX posted Q1 2026 revenue of $4.69 billion 3. Elon Musk will be CEO, CTO, and Chairman of the Board after the IPO 4. SpaceX holds $15.8 billion in cash as of March 31st 5. SpaceX is seeking to raise a record $80 billion in its IPO with an expected IPO date of June 12th More details to come shortly on this historic IPO.

@DeItaone BTC does not need just a buyer. It needs broad demand. If one balance sheet is absorbing supply while ETFs, retail and spot flows cool down, the chart can stay alive… but the foundation gets thinner.

BITCOIN DEMAND INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY MICHAEL SAYLOR Bitcoin’s market is becoming heavily dependent on buying by Strategy and its executive chairman Michael Saylor, as broader investor demand weakens. Strategy has bought more than 171,000 Bitcoin in 2026 — far exceeding new supply from miners — with purchases funded through high-yield preferred stock offerings. Analysts say the company now represents a major share of Bitcoin trading and accumulation activity. Meanwhile, ETF inflows, hedge fund arbitrage demand, and retail trading have slowed, while miners are increasingly selling Bitcoin to fund AI infrastructure investments.

$LULU is reacting from the lower boundary of the descending channel after a strong downside move. Price is trying to reclaim momentum from the 114.51 support area, but the broader structure is still trading inside a downtrend channel. As long as price holds above support, a short-term recovery toward the next liquidity zones remains possible. Key Levels: 🔴 Resistance: 130.42 ⚪ Support: 114.51 🟡 Invalidation: 111.15 Potential upside targets: 🎯 TP1: 136.27 🎯 TP2: 144.44 🎯 TP3: 155.83 A confirmed close above 130.42 would be the first strong sign that buyers are trying to shift short-term momentum. Until then, this remains a reaction setup inside a broader descending structure. YTD / NFA #LULU #Stocks #StockMarket #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure

@ArdiNSC This is why BTC looks stronger on the chart than it may be underneath. If spot buyers are stepping away while leverage keeps building, the market can stay calm right until the flush starts. The trap usually forms before the chart admits it.

$BTC The deeper this correction goes, the weaker the underlying spot demand continues to look. Spot volume fading. Perp activity expanding. Coinbase Premium rolling deeper into negative. Not an ideal combination. That’s the type of confluence you'll see when spot demand steps away from the move while leveraged positioning continues trying to force continuation higher. The problem is that the leverage positioning can keep the structure looking stable for a while. But once momentum starts slowing down, the chart becomes vulnerable to larger positioning flushes because there isn’t enough spot demand underneath to absorb the exit flow. That’s why we saw $600M in liquidations this week with barely any bounce. It’s also worth noting that the last time spot delta volume was sitting around these levels, BTC was trading closer to $73K. If we continue to see spot participation weakening while longs remain crowded, the probability of another flush deeper into the range only continues increasing from here.

@CryptoTice_ If this is accurate, the real issue is not just Japan selling Treasuries. It is what happens when foreign demand weakens while deficits, refinancing needs and long-end yields are already under pressure. That is where bond market stress can become a liquidity story very quickly.

BREAKING: The Bank of Japan is about to dump $2,860,000,000 in U.S. Treasuries. The largest Japanese Treasury liquidation in 30 years. The last time Japan did this. The stock market crashed 15%. Japan is the second largest holder of U.S. debt on earth. When they sell. Yields spike. When yields spike. Everything else breaks. Stocks. Crypto. Bonds. Nothing is safe when this kind of liquidity leaves the system. China already reducing Treasuries to 2008 lows. Japan now dumping at a 30 year record. The two largest foreign holders of U.S. debt. Selling at the same time. The Fed will have to buy everything they're selling. More money printing. More liquidity. More inflation. The system is breaking in slow motion. And nobody is talking about it. This is the most important story in markets right now.

@zerohedge Hormuz is the headline. Bab al-Mandab is where the risk starts spreading into global trade routes. If energy and shipping costs move together, this stops being just an oil story very quickly.

Iranian Special Assistant to the Minister of Interior says "In the event of an attack on Iran, Bab al-Mandab will enter the equation of war. The 3 Straits of Hormuz, Malacca, and Bab al-Mandeb are the most important strategic checkpoints in the world. Until now, for various reasons, we have only used the capacity of the Strait of Hormuz. If we are ever forced to use the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the price of oil will rise above $200 to $250" - Fars They really need to learn about demand destruction.

US selling pressure clear on Coinbase Premium Gap (-$77). Short-term weakness in spot demand, but this is exactly where liquidity sweeps and structure shifts usually happen.

@BullTheoryio Exactly. Energy shock is priced in, but the food shock from fertilizer +20% and Hormuz supply risk is still ahead. Lower agricultural yields Q4 2026 onward = fresh CPI pressure. Safe havens and commodities remain well positioned.

bitcoin:native #Bitcoin is currently moving inside a broad recovery structure after the strong reaction from the lower range. Price is now consolidating below the upper red liquidity zone, while still respecting the rising white support structure. This is the key part of the chart. As long as BTC continues to hold above the rising support line, the broader recovery scenario remains active. But the major resistance is not a single level — it is the red supply / liquidity zone above price. That zone is where the market will likely decide whether this move becomes a real continuation or another trap. The projected path remains valid only if the rising support structure holds. A clean reclaim into the red resistance zone could open the path for continuation. A breakdown below the white support structure would weaken the setup and shift the market into a more defensive scenario. The next move may be less about guessing direction… and more about watching whether BTC traps sellers below support or rejects buyers into the red zone. NFA.

@DeItaone Mortgage rates are the first warning light, not the last one. When yields move like this, housing usually feels it before equities admit anything is wrong. The interesting part is what comes next — and it is rarely just about housing.

MORTGAGE RATES HIT 6.75%, HIGHEST SINCE JULY 30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.75%, the highest since July, up 7 bps in a day and 33 bps over 10 days, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates are now 46 bps above April lows after rebounding from war-driven volatility that pushed them near 6.6% in March. Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham says bond markets are signaling pressure on policymakers to end the war or face further economic strain. The move has lifted monthly payments by about $167 on a median-priced home, highlighting renewed pressure on housing affordability.

Korea is starting to look less like a normal rally and more like a leverage stress test. Retail margin debt, foreign selling and broker interest income all point to the same thing: liquidity is getting crowded. And usually, markets do not break when everyone is scared — they break when everyone thinks the risk is gone.

Is this what a market bubble looks like? Korean retail investors have borrowed a record 36.47 trillion won to buy stocks at all time highs, at interest rates between 7 and 9% annually. That number has doubled in exactly 12 months. The KOSPI went from 6,000 to an intraday high of 8,046 in nine trading days before crashing 6.12% in the same session it hit that peak. On the day the KOSPI touched 8,000, retail investors net-bought 7.18 trillion won in a single session, the largest single-day retail purchase in Korean market history, while foreign investors were dumping 5.61 trillion won on the other side of those exact same trades. It is not just young investors chasing returns. Investors aged 50 and above now hold 62.3% of all margin debt in Korea. Personal credit lines at the five largest Korean banks hit a 3-year high in the same month, with analysts describing the funds as being pulled directly into the stock market. Korea's 10 largest brokerages made 600 billion won in interest income from margin lending in Q1 2026 alone, up 56% from the same period last year. The brokerages collect that interest whether the market goes up or down. This exact pattern has appeared before every major market crash in modern history. US margin debt peaked in March 2000, the exact month Nasdaq peaked before falling 78%. It peaked in July 2007, three months before the S&P 500 topped out before falling 55%. It peaked in October 2021, two months before markets topped before falling 25%. Korea's margin debt just peaked at its highest level in history. The KOSPI hit 8,000 and reversed in the same session. China's margin debt just surpassed its 2015 bubble peak. Taiwan's margin balance has more than doubled this year. US margin debt hit a record $1.28 trillion in January 2026 before starting to decline. Every major market simultaneously. Every retail investor borrowing to chase returns. Every brokerage printing record interest income. The data is identical to what preceded every crash of the past 25 years.

@unusual_whales Legal headline on the surface, policy signal underneath. If political risk keeps moving into taxes, regulation and Treasury supply, markets will not treat this as background noise for long.

BREAKING: The US has dropped tax claims against Trump, with part of the settlement agreement saying the US is "forever barred and precluded" from examining or prosecuting Trump, his sons and the Trump organization's current tax issues, per AP

Bonds are probably the real policy trigger here. Equities can stay calm on the surface, but if yields keep tightening mortgages, credit and business borrowing underneath, Washington will have to pay attention. This is exactly the kind of macro pressure I’m tracking closely right now.

Bessent: After "one or two more hot inflation numbers...I think we're going to see substantial disinflation." "I was never on team transient during Covid, and a lot of that had to do with what happened with very expansionary fiscal policy that was financed by debt purchases from the Central Bank, kind of an experiment in modern monetary theory that caused inflation. And, but here, I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock. And we can, we can look through that because before the Iranian conflict began, core inflation was coming down. So I think core inflation will continue coming down. We’ll get to the other side of this, and I don’t know whether it’s a few days or a few weeks, and energy inflation will come back down. And we’ve got the start of the Warsh Fed…. And I think that he’s going to bring an open mind to this. And I actually think he’s going to be in a very good position, because we may get a series, one or two more hot inflation numbers, but then I think we’re going to see substantial disinflation.

@BullTheoryio The real lesson is not “buy cheap stocks.” It is that massive winners usually look boring, broken or dead for years before the market finally understands the story. Patience is the hardest alpha.

This is absolutely crazy. NVIDIA traded below $1 for 17 straight years. Then it went from $1 to over $230 in less than 10 years. A $10,000 investment even at $1 would be worth more than $2.3 million today.

@DeItaone This is where bonds become the real signal. Equities may still look calm on the surface, but higher yields are already tightening conditions underneath the market. That’s usually what forces policymakers to react.

BOND YIELDS MAY TRIGGER TRUMP ACTION Wolfe Research says rising U.S. bond yields—not stock declines—are the key trigger that could force White House action on the war. Analyst Chris Senyek warns inflation is pushing yields higher, and policymakers are more likely to respond to bond market stress than equity weakness. The firm also flags stretched stocks and risks from inflation, energy, AI spending, and credit stress, but sees bonds as the main pressure point.

Bond market is sending the message before equities want to hear it. Higher long-end yields mean tighter financial conditions, higher borrowing costs and more pressure on duration-heavy assets. The real question now is whether stocks keep treating this as noise or finally start repricing risk.

🚨 THE US BOND MARKET IS COMPLETELY MELTING DOWN RIGHT NOW. The US 30-year Treasury yield just spiked to 5.186%, its highest level since July 2007. The US 20-year Treasury yield just hit 5.205%, the highest since November 2023. The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.663%, the highest since January 2025. The US 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.110%, the highest since February 2025. Mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and business borrowing costs are all about to get even more expensive.

So the setup is simple: Technically, $GM is trying to defend a key support zone after losing short-term structure. Fundamentally, the bull case depends on truck/SUV strength, tariff relief, cash flow, buybacks and disciplined EV spending. A reclaim above resistance would make the recovery case much cleaner. YTD / NFA

Cash flow and capital returns are also important here. GM reported $1.3B of adjusted automotive free cash flow in Q1 and repurchased around $0.8B of shares during the quarter. For the market, that helps support the bull case as long as earnings, margins and liquidity remain stable.

$GM #Generalmotors is testing a key support reaction zone after breaking below the short-term rising structure. Price is currently trying to reclaim the 72.00–74.77 area, but momentum needs confirmation before the recovery path becomes stronger. As long as price holds above the 70.41 support area, a rebound toward the upper resistance zones remains possible. Key Levels: 🔴 Resistance: 74.77 ⚪ Support: 70.41 🟡 Invalidation: 67.77 Potential upside targets: 🎯 TP1: 75.99 🎯 TP2: 79.16 🎯 TP3: 82.79 A confirmed close back above 74.77 could shift short-term momentum in favor of buyers again. YTD / NFA #GM #GeneralMotors #Stocks #StockMarket #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure