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Trader swags retweetledi
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daily close in.. just got off a call with my quant..
a bullish scenario.. and a bearish.. with if this, then that logic..
tldr
if #bitcoin holds $87,000 then expect a recovery rally.
if BTC rejects $84,000 then expect further downside.
let's start with a bullish case..
wyckoff
the recent dip below $84,000 could be a spring, where smart money absorbs weak hands before a reversal.
if price reclaims and holds above $84,000, it would confirm a shakeout rather than a true breakdown.
the market could be entering a reaccumulation phase, forming a new base before an uptrend continuation.
a successful retest and bounce from this level would validate the strength of demand.
volume
the breakdown had high volume, suggesting strong participation, but the follow-through was weak.
This could indicate seller exhaustion if buyers step in to absorb supply.
A volume increase on an upward move would confirm demand stepping in, supporting a rally back toward $90,000+.
rsi
rsi is sitting near 40, historically a zone where bounces often occur.
If rsi reclaims 50+, it would suggest momentum shifting in favor of bulls.
a hidden bullish divergence could form if price makes a higher low while rsi trends up.
price action
If #BTC closes above $87,000, it would invalidate the breakdown and suggest a bull trap for shorts.
The next resistance is around $90,000 - $92,000, which would be the logical next target.
If $BTC forms a higher low and builds structure, momentum could shift strongly bullish.
now the bearish case..
wyckoff
the breakdown below $84,000 aligns with a sign of weakness (SOW), confirming further distribution.
the recent retest of $84,000 is likely a Last Point of supply (LPSY), meaning sellers are using this level to reload before further downside.
the price structure is still lower highs and lower lows, consistent with a downtrend.
failure to reclaim the level will result in a continued markdown, likely towards $78,000 - $75,000.
volume
the breakdown happened with strong sell volume, confirming seller control.
the bounce attempts have shown low buy volume, indicating weak buyer interest.
if price gets rejected at $84,000 with an increase in sell volume, it confirms continued distribution.
rsi
rsi remains below 50, which is bearish territory in a downtrend.
a rejection at 40-50 rsi would likely lead to a further selloff.
if rsi drops below 30, it would indicate oversold conditions, but it could still trend lower before a significant bounce.
price action
if price fails to hold $84,000, it confirms a breakdown retest rejection.
the next downside target would be $78,000 - $75,000, aligning with historical demand areas.
If the decline accelerates, btc could even retest $70,000, a high-volume node on the profile.
conclusion
bullish: a reclaim and hold above $87,000 with strong volume would invalidate the breakdown, targeting $90,000+.
bearish: a rejection here sends btc toward $78,000 - $75,000, with further downside possible if weakness persists.
I don't think the top is in, so I'm going with this is more likely re-accumulation, similar to the post covid crash, but if we break down, i'm going to assume it's similar to 2021's crash before the second rally to the taproot bitcoin upgrade.
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hey all, apologies to everyone that tried to enter the app over the last few minutes and had a bad experience
we opened up invite codes for 60s and we got so much load that the server crashed
all slots for the game sold out in ~30 seconds
this is why we're limiting invite codes so much
we're still in beta 😭
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@wauwda Your knowledge and insight is so valuable, ignore the haters!
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and New ATH achieved - GGWP!
$164 > New ATH.
Now price discovery is programmed.
#SOL
Roman Sutherland | Nousophy@Nousopher
$SOL / #SOL - Reclaimed $164. That was the level. Achieved. New all time highs programmed. Let's go.
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@wauwda If you had to pick 3 of these to keep a close eye on now which would it be?
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