Trading Winds of Change

@dampedspring Define end the war?

What is the probability of a bilateral agreement between to end the war between Iran and the U.S. being announced in May in your opinion

@DavidAlGregory @adamtaggart Sure but that's will be the case with any technology, why such a profound realization by looking a robo lawnmower today?

@Trading_Winds @adamtaggart They are considerably better and less expensive to begin with. Kind of like home robots - you can get one that sweeps and mops for a fraction of one that only swept just 2-3 years ago. My eufy does a great job. I am at work and yet the floor will be mopped and swept.

Goodbye landscapers/greenskeepers The robots are here

@sidprabhu @BullandBaird Qqq

@BullandBaird What is a risk free asset

Should a risk free asset have a positive real return?

@DannyDayan5 Good list and well done. But tbh for me you sound like just a 1 theme guy "FCI is too easy" , fed needs to not cut, inflation is rampant ... Which is fine as you list out things worked out that way but as an X follower I don't see any flex in your views in general...just IMO

There are macro strategists or newsletter providers who are much better at patting themselves on the ass than me. I am a trader who moves onto the next after getting it right. Macro is about being ahead of the consensus on core themes. Let's review some of my big calls.

@DsrPrivate @Etiam_Aliquam @fouad_1217 Need citrini analyst #4

@dampedspring @VolSignals Going max bearish - does it mean you see no war risk premium in spx considering level/positioning And if so where do you see risk premium baked in?

These are the six things that I think will determine the next six months path. Each of these bullish things is bearish as well. Keep it simple. Let's say earnings is all that matters. There is a bull case and bear case for earnings. I think the bearish outcome of these six things is going to happen

I just went max bearish equities. However plenty of bull cases exist. The six big things that can make me wrong 1) Collapse of long term oil prices back to the low's 2) The passage of a highly stimulative fiscal package or reconcilliation 3) Manipulation of the Treasury Issuance such that they issue less duration and more bills, and Fed Balance sheet manipulation - These things are really bad for USD 4) AI ROI for all spenders on picks and shovels surprises on the upside vs already lofty earnings expectations AND margin doesnt come from firing workers. 5) Fed cuts short rates more than expected 6) Investors, companies, and banks lever up more than expected to invest and consume (Animal spirits accelerate and persist.) Which absorbs the massive overhang of issuance of government bonds, corporate bonds, IPO's etc which elevated growth expectations depend without a decline in prices, rise in yields.

@MacrostratPB Not sure about extreme moves. To me this weekend wasn't any step towards escalation from either side?

@DsrPrivate 💯 agreed his piece is more for a netflix documentary rather than anything new for us

@DsrPrivate Looking at the SVB and Aug 24 episodes where we know significant deleveraging happened this chart suggests level isn't important but the rate of change in your estimates is more of a signal ? Liberation day of course was peak and multi sigma event in all asset classes that shows

@BobEUnlimited Too much over analysis those who had Sonia lost their shirt those who didn't were fine or did well. Simple

When allocators finally learn that "idio" is just a fancy way to say "short vol"

@dMacro_dBS Regime change...global deflationary -> inflationary regime!

Serious inquiry: Any good reads or analysis on what the US has actually accomplished with this war? I’m clearly biased and I’d like to think I’m missing something. Open to any sources, as long as they don’t have the Israeli flag tattooed on their butt cheek

@bondgir60905823 @nishantkumar07 At the time of desperation could be better terms!

Diego Megia’s macro hedge fund Taula has raised $1.75 billion in new cash, adding to its asset base as an expanding team of portfolio managers enhances its capacity to manage more money. Total AUM: more than $8.5 billion. That's despite -9.6% in March bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@agnostoxxx AI-TOLL-A could have merged 2 themes in one!

AYA-TOLL where it all likes Hotel California; new piece out (h/t Phil for the Aya-toll!) shrubstack.com/p/welcome-to-t…

@stevehou @sdav1986 VIX is not implied vol!

@sdav1986 So why is implied vol at 30?

There is absolutely no volatility whatsoever at index level at the moment. None.

@biancoresearch No evidence of what? 10 ships did cross

As a follow up, I'm not going to mince words ... If the real reason for the delay is that the military assets needed were not in place, then don't make up shit about 10 tankers going through the Strait (no evidence) or the Iranians asked for the delay (the Pakistanis, who are the intermediaries, said no such request was made). Say you'll keep talking, you're losing patience, and say every day the Iranians don't deal means the Marines are getting closer to the Middle East. The market would understand that, and the crude oil response (fall and stay down) might have been more favorable. This just looks like a TACO mess.

When Trump announced a delay to the bombing on Monday morning, crude oil futures immediately fell 10%. Compare this to the reaction to yesterday afternoon, when he extended the delay another 10 days (red box). It was short-lived, and now, about 12 hours later, prices are meaningfully higher. I believe the market signal is that the Strait must be opened, and the military must do it. The longer we delay starting this process, the higher crude oil prices will go. All Trump did yesterday was add 10 more days to the ongoing supply shock. Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets. Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets. Why isn't the crude oil market substantially higher ($150+), like many are asking? I would argue that the market believes the military can open the Strait. But it will be "messy." In other words, there are no good choices, only ones that are less bad.

@citrini Problem is same military people thought it was a 2 week operation when it started. No one has an edge do not believe anyone....that's the only edge

Weird dichotomy where all the people I know who are actively enlisted in the military feel the conflict is about to heat up but most of the people shitposting on Twitter are confident it won’t. I don’t know who to believe.

@omshanti08 "you're meant to book" fking British autocorrect 😂

@omshanti08 So am I right April first week it ends sort of lines up with Trump deadlines but too good to be true! Another leg higher in vol and energy which your are meant to book ? Or do we flip it too to be short vol and energy

@R1Siba @Osint613 Prove it by showing older link

@Osint613 This video from 5 March. Reshared today.

WATCH 🔴 Very heavy strikes reported in the Iranian capital, Tehran, moments ago.