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We are in the modern day version of the 1929 Tulip bubble with a digitised coin trying to represent a store of value. This can only end badly.
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Trading Sense
3.9K posts
Trading Sense
@Trading_sense
25years being whipsawed by markets has taught me hard lessons about the value of money. Don’t get sucked into the narrative & always keep some cash on hand.
Gold Coast, Queensland Katılım Şubat 2020
480 Takip Edilen3.7K Takipçiler
@DominicDirupo That’s what happens when a markets has hit peak value.
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Went to 6 open homes on the GC this weekend (houses and duplexes). Spent 15 mins in each
The number of other people attending:
0, 0, 1, 4, 0, 2
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Exactly, the risk of escalation is far greater than before with the Trump armada and foot soldiers all ready and waiting to be deployed. He’s baiting them with all his jawboning about them agreeing to all he wants. So it’s just a matter of time before Iran respond to his taunts. 🤯
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@Trading_sense Imagine if they closed the Strait next to the Red Sea this w/end - unconfirmed reposts this is planned . My god would be the biggest gap lower in risk history !
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Happy Friday !
Trump keeps telling us the deal is wrapped up better than a Xmas present - meanwhile deathly silence from Iran . Guess they love it so much - they already celebrating doing models and bottles . Other news - crude problem ain’t going away .
Whatever 💋
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The jawboning coming out of the mouth of this Orange clown, is out of this world.🤡
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
Trump on Truth social May have been a historic day for Lebanon. Good things are happening!!! President DJT
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@PeteWargent This is just the start. Build costs will blow out too far, making most projects unfeasible. High growth areas like the GC & Sunshine Coast will be hit first.
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@rhainw @DiveBomb321 We'll see what comes of it down the track, but right now, I'm focused on the short term and it isn't looking good.🧐
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@Trading_sense @DiveBomb321 I was referring to weak PA in private equity/private credit in U.S. agree overall mkt PA is very strong. Elements of AI are a bubble, I’m comfortable most U.S. mega caps will have a reasonable 10 years, but they need to be prudent. China a bit of an unknown!
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One scenario I have been floating the whole rally. 🤷♂️
⚡️The Traveling Trader⚡️@ZTheTrader
What if Trump was pushing the market back to ATH with positive news about peace talks, just so that he can stage a ground operation now? 🤔
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@rhainw @DiveBomb321 I run a long short portfolio, only use ETF's to short the market. 😉
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@Trading_sense @DiveBomb321 I’m very comfortable owning equities for the long term, but if you had $1m cash today (assuming this was your main asset other than home), you’re surely not using every dollar to buy an equity index ETF today. It always comes down to risk vs return, right now it’s not great
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PA looks good for now. But there are truck tonne of things that can still go wrong, and often these things don't come out until it's too late.
As for AI, it's a bubble and I still think it will burst first, taking the whole market down with it when it does. Then AI will continue, but with only a few leading the charge. Q is, who will it be China or the US.🤨
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@Trading_sense @DiveBomb321 To me the clearest risk/return irrationality is linked to Mid East war. The others you mentioned are harder to gauge. I’m bullish on AI over long run, but it won’t be smooth. Private credit is a real unknown, but price action indicates there are more issues
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Bet my right boob it wasn't.
MARKETS FULL OF R3TARD5@ShitValueFund
Bet my left nut it's mossad who did it.
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Glass half-full view: We still have one oil refinery left!
Beags@beaglier_
So the good news is 1 of our 2 remaining oil refineries is now on fire. 🔥
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I think the idea is to have the media focusing on the war, whilst everyone forgets about the other underlying risks in financial markets. I mean it's a never ending list of what can go wrong, but here are just a few examples.
Private credit default risk
Declining Japanese yen
The carry trade
Rising inflation
Big Tech valuations and CAPEX costs 🤯
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@Trading_sense @DiveBomb321 The probability of a permanent deal being agreed on in short term seems to be greatly overestimated. Getting priced by equities at nearly 100%, best case it’s probably around 50/50, worst case it’s a lot lower than this
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@rhainw @DiveBomb321 Yes peak naivety or CTA's chasing the move. But Donnie always has a surprise up his sleeve.🤯
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@Trading_sense @DiveBomb321 It is peak naivety that market isn’t pricing in a reasonable probability of this - even if it isn’t the base case
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Iran suspends all petrochemical exports. Nothing to see here! 🤔
GIF
LiveSquawk@LiveSquawk
According to the announcement by the Director of Development of Downstream Petrochemical Industries, the export of all Iranian petrochemical products has been prohibited and halted until further notice.
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@Analyst_G Anything is possible.
That said, institutions don't typically lever up with size after such a furious rally. The most common outcome in situations like this is a bit of overshoot above the print followed by chop/reversal.
These read like long exits to me.
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