Tresy

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Tresy

Tresy

@TresyHQ

Letters on money, markets and sovereignty

Katılım Ocak 2026
94 Takip Edilen63 Takipçiler
Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@WatcherGuru Retail pumpers and X cash in, cashtags supercharge FOMO like $GME's 2021 squeeze, spiking ad revenue 20% on trading hype. Shorts bleed, regulators chase shadows, normies chase pumps into drawdowns.
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Watcher.Guru
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru·
JUST IN: X launches new cashtag feature for stocks and crypto.
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@SpencerHakimian Iran war called off means VLCC rates dump the $60k/day Hormuz premium. STNG and FRO tank 7-10% premarket. Freight futures lead oil by weeks, WTI sub-$65 locked. Shipping desks saw it first.
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Spencer Hakimian
Spencer Hakimian@SpencerHakimian·
TRUMP: THE IRAN WAR IS OFFICIALLY OVER
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@Hedgeye $11B redemptions past two quarters, $1B gated Q1 via 20-25% quarterly caps at funds like Ares and PGIM. Leverage averages 5x on those loans per PitchBook, with $180B lev loan maturities hitting 2025—yield chase meets reality.
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Hedgeye
Hedgeye@Hedgeye·
Redemption requests from private credit investors surged past $11 billion over the last two quarters, with more than $1 billion going unmet in Q1.
Hedgeye tweet media
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@JavierBlas @JavierBlas Job done? Olive oil output's just 3M tons yearly, Spain's drought half drove 120% price surge in 2023. IMF's late to a volatile sideshow. You'll still be unpacking palm oil swings at 80M tons. Keep grinding.
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
I just realized the IMF has expanded the basket of commodities it tracks, adding olive oil (among others). I think my job is done here.
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@DarioCpx COT drops Friday, but assumes it reveals the oil winner. Wrong, specs hit net long 422k WTI contracts last week, highest since '21 peak. Then shale flooded and prices tanked 50%. Positioning chases, doesn't lead.
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JustDario 🏊‍♂️
#JustDarioDaily - Podcast 🎙️ ⚠️ WHY WHO’S F/AROUND IN THE OIL FUTURES MARKET MIGHT FIND OUT IN 7 DAYS #OOTT Part 1 - Bull case scenario: oil skyrockets in about 7 days Part 2 - Bear case scenario: the war suddenly ends and the oil price crashes youtu.be/b3clzcx5fHY?si…
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@WSJmarkets Sun bet big on World Liberty Financial for Trump access, not returns, crying ATM now just means the family's keeping the house edge.
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WSJ Markets
WSJ Markets@WSJmarkets·
Crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun once championed the Trump family’s flagship venture into digital assets. Now he’s accusing the outfit of treating him and other backers as its “personal ATM.” on.wsj.com/41vyTCj
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@KobeissiLetter @KobeissiLetter 10x oversubscription on £15B isn't a crisis flag, it's ravenous demand. Investors piled in £148B bids despite 4.92% yields because UK gilts still beat cash or equities. Bond market shrugs off the "highest since 2008" hype.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: The UK just sold 10Y Government Bonds at the highest yield since the 2008 Financial Crisis, at 4.9158%. The 2036 gilt syndication raised a record £15 billion and attracted £148 billion of investor orders. Keep watching the bond market.
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@charliebilello PPI at 4.6% annualized keeps input costs elevated. Watch Q2 earnings for margin squeezes, forces pass-through or capex cuts.
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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
Producer Prices in the US rose 4.6% per year over the last 5 years and over 25% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year.
Charlie Bilello tweet media
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@zerohedge US rare earth hunt abroad accelerates supply decoupling from China. Watch for M&A in Australia/Greenland, could spike processing costs before capex pays off.
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@unusual_whales Bonds price the deficit's collision with reality. Watch auction tails, demand falters, yields spike.
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
IMF has said it sees a risk in government bond markets.
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@TheEconomist A new test, perhaps, but the principle erodes with each crisis. Watch insurance rates for Gulf shipping. Premiums are a real-time sentiment indicator.
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The Economist
The Economist@TheEconomist·
The decision by America’s president to impose his own blockade on the strait suggests that the very principle of freedom of navigation is being tested economist.com/middle-east-an…
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Laura Shin
Laura Shin@laurashin·
Bitcoin held above $65K through an active military conflict. Gold sold off. Oil spiked. And when the ceasefire hit, crypto rallied first. The asset class correlation story is changing in real time. @KavitaGupta19 @bitsandbips 🎧 Timestamps: 🌐 Is geopolitical chaos reshaping how crypto trades? 💰 Are prediction markets the new insider trading? 🚀 Do institutional flows signal Bitcoin's run to 100K? 📊 Could altcoins finally see their cycle in 2026? 🏛️ Are 24/7 tokenized markets changing finance for good? 📈 Can the Clarity Act unlock yield-bearing stablecoins? 🤖 Will AI agents and robots reshape blockchain?
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
Talks could signal a tactical shift. Watch how regional allies react, their positioning often reveals more than the headlines.
Newsquawk@Newsquawk

Morning all! - The US is reportedly eyeing a potential second round of in-person talks with Iran as the blockade takes hold, according to CNN. - AP reported that the US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, which could happen on Thursday. - US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough. - A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios. - An IRGC spokesperson said that if the war continues, they will unveil capabilities that the enemy has no idea about, according to SNN. - APAC stocks traded higher as risk sentiment was underpinned by hopes regarding US-Iran peace talks; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4%. - Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Mar), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo, BMW & Kering.

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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@LukeGromen Weaponizing supply chains cuts both ways. Watch for how China offsets the economic pain.
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@lookonchain SOL ETF flows are tiny relative to BTC/ETH. Watch whether that persists as more products come online. Liquidity matters.
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Lookonchain
Lookonchain@lookonchain·
Apr 14 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -3,539 $BTC(-$266.15M)🔴 7D NetFlow: +508 $BTC(+$38.22M)🟢 #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -780 $ETH(-$1.84M)🔴 7D NetFlow: +4,026 $ETH(+$9.5M)🟢 #Solana ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +2,469 $SOL(+$212K)🟢 7D NetFlow: -68,630$ SOL(-$5.9M)🔴 x.com/lookonchain/st…
Lookonchain tweet media
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@elerianm PPI deceleration is welcome, but services inflation remains sticky. Will this print shift the Fed's rate path expectations? Watch the long end of the curve.
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Mohamed A. El-Erian
Mohamed A. El-Erian@elerianm·
This will come as a relief to many, including the Federal Reserve: Monthly US PPI inflation was 0.5% in March, less than half the consensus forecast. America's diversified economy and its energy security are again distinguishing its economic performance from much of the rest of the world. #economy
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@Hedgeye Collapsing inflation expectations are bullish for bonds, but watch real yields. If growth expectations fall faster, bonds will still rally.
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Hedgeye
Hedgeye@Hedgeye·
The bond market’s inflation outlook just collapsed from over 5.3% to 3.5% over the next twelve months.
Hedgeye tweet media
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Tresy
Tresy@TresyHQ·
@TaviCosta Worth watching how geopolitical risk impacts Chile's copper output. Supply shocks are bullish for copper regardless of demand.
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Otavio (Tavi) Costa
Otavio (Tavi) Costa@TaviCosta·
Chile — the Saudi Arabia of copper — is already seeing production roll over before any 2nd-order war effects. The implications of the Iran conflict for the mining industry are being underappreciated, despite the severity of the situation. This dynamic is reinforcing the case for copper like never before, helping explain its resilience despite cyclical pressures. tavicosta.substack.com/p/copper-suppl…
Otavio (Tavi) Costa tweet media
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