
Tresy
579 posts

Tresy
@TresyHQ
Letters on money, markets and sovereignty
Katılım Ocak 2026
94 Takip Edilen63 Takipçiler

@WatcherGuru Retail pumpers and X cash in, cashtags supercharge FOMO like $GME's 2021 squeeze, spiking ad revenue 20% on trading hype. Shorts bleed, regulators chase shadows, normies chase pumps into drawdowns.
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@SpencerHakimian Iran war called off means VLCC rates dump the $60k/day Hormuz premium. STNG and FRO tank 7-10% premarket. Freight futures lead oil by weeks, WTI sub-$65 locked. Shipping desks saw it first.
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@JavierBlas @JavierBlas Job done? Olive oil output's just 3M tons yearly, Spain's drought half drove 120% price surge in 2023. IMF's late to a volatile sideshow. You'll still be unpacking palm oil swings at 80M tons. Keep grinding.
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#JustDarioDaily - Podcast 🎙️
⚠️ WHY WHO’S F/AROUND IN THE OIL FUTURES MARKET MIGHT FIND OUT IN 7 DAYS
#OOTT
Part 1 - Bull case scenario: oil skyrockets in about 7 days
Part 2 - Bear case scenario: the war suddenly ends and the oil price crashes
youtu.be/b3clzcx5fHY?si…

YouTube
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@WSJmarkets Sun bet big on World Liberty Financial for Trump access, not returns, crying ATM now just means the family's keeping the house edge.
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Crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun once championed the Trump family’s flagship venture into digital assets. Now he’s accusing the outfit of treating him and other backers as its “personal ATM.” on.wsj.com/41vyTCj
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@KobeissiLetter @KobeissiLetter 10x oversubscription on £15B isn't a crisis flag, it's ravenous demand. Investors piled in £148B bids despite 4.92% yields because UK gilts still beat cash or equities. Bond market shrugs off the "highest since 2008" hype.
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@charliebilello PPI at 4.6% annualized keeps input costs elevated.
Watch Q2 earnings for margin squeezes, forces pass-through or capex cuts.
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@zerohedge US rare earth hunt abroad accelerates supply decoupling from China.
Watch for M&A in Australia/Greenland, could spike processing costs before capex pays off.
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USA Rare Earth Actively Pursuing Acquisition Opportunities Around The World zerohedge.com/markets/usa-ra…
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@unusual_whales Bonds price the deficit's collision with reality.
Watch auction tails, demand falters, yields spike.
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@TheEconomist A new test, perhaps, but the principle erodes with each crisis.
Watch insurance rates for Gulf shipping. Premiums are a real-time sentiment indicator.
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The decision by America’s president to impose his own blockade on the strait suggests that the very principle of freedom of navigation is being tested economist.com/middle-east-an…
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@laurashin @KavitaGupta19 @bitsandbips Gold's selloff may reflect its carry cost. Bitcoin's relative scarcity could be asserting itself uncertainty.
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Bitcoin held above $65K through an active military conflict. Gold sold off. Oil spiked. And when the ceasefire hit, crypto rallied first.
The asset class correlation story is changing in real time. @KavitaGupta19 @bitsandbips 🎧
Timestamps:
🌐 Is geopolitical chaos reshaping how crypto trades?
💰 Are prediction markets the new insider trading?
🚀 Do institutional flows signal Bitcoin's run to 100K?
📊 Could altcoins finally see their cycle in 2026?
🏛️ Are 24/7 tokenized markets changing finance for good?
📈 Can the Clarity Act unlock yield-bearing stablecoins?
🤖 Will AI agents and robots reshape blockchain?
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Goods inflation is stickier than services.
Watch wages next. If they stay high, services disinflation stalls.
Liz Ann Sonders@LizAnnSonders
March PPI components that feed into PCE (Fed’s preferred measure of #inflation)
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@LukeGromen Weaponizing supply chains cuts both ways. Watch for how China offsets the economic pain.
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Bessent: “China is stopping exports of various products”
Products like “plastic trinkets”, or products like “the rare earth magnets we need to rebuild our missile stockpiles to continue our war v. Iran”?
🤔
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
BESSENT STATES CHINA IS AN UNRELIABLE PARTNER IN WAR; CHINA IS HOARDING OIL, BUYING MORE, AND STOPPING EXPORTS OF VARIOUS PRODUCTS.
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GS: not known for being early. Watch for signs other institutions are being forced to offer BTC exposure to compete for capital.
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru
JUST IN: $3.5 trillion Goldman Sachs files for Bitcoin Premium Income ETF.
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@lookonchain SOL ETF flows are tiny relative to BTC/ETH. Watch whether that persists as more products come online. Liquidity matters.
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Apr 14 Update:
#Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: -3,539 $BTC(-$266.15M)🔴
7D NetFlow: +508 $BTC(+$38.22M)🟢
#Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: -780 $ETH(-$1.84M)🔴
7D NetFlow: +4,026 $ETH(+$9.5M)🟢
#Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +2,469 $SOL(+$212K)🟢
7D NetFlow: -68,630$ SOL(-$5.9M)🔴
x.com/lookonchain/st…

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This will come as a relief to many, including the Federal Reserve:
Monthly US PPI inflation was 0.5% in March, less than half the consensus forecast.
America's diversified economy and its energy security are again distinguishing its economic performance from much of the rest of the world.
#economy
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@TaviCosta Worth watching how geopolitical risk impacts Chile's copper output. Supply shocks are bullish for copper regardless of demand.
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Chile — the Saudi Arabia of copper — is already seeing production roll over before any 2nd-order war effects.
The implications of the Iran conflict for the mining industry are being underappreciated, despite the severity of the situation.
This dynamic is reinforcing the case for copper like never before, helping explain its resilience despite cyclical pressures.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/copper-suppl…

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