Shankar Sharma@1shankarsharma
It would be a mistake to think that the decision to end the war rests with America. It doesn't.
It rests with Iran and somewhat, with Israel.
And Iran won't stop until it gets what it wants: no US presence in the ME. Cast iron guarantees that it won't be attacked again.
Israel wants to finish its own ( read: Netanyahu 's) agenda: subjugation of Iran.
This seems a far reach, considering they could not even finish Hezbollah: and Hezbollah is hitting them hard on the Northern side, destroying ~20 tanks!
Iran's objectives can't be met either: US won't leave the Gulf.
Therefore, Iran will never agree to a ceasefire because it knows this will only give the enemy the chance to regroup as happened last June.
And of course, there is this little thing about oil. Can US resist taking over Iran's Oil? No. Because controlling this oil will give it massive windfall profit paying for the war instantly.
And it will give it massive energy dominance over the world because it will control all of the world oil except Russin.
Weak countries like India, who have zero bargaining power with US ( plenty of recent examples) will have zero energy independence: we will become Tommy, getting rewarded for good behaviour or punished. Of course, till then, we serve two masters: US & Iran, since we need to get oil passes from both. We have recently made ourselves a transactional country so even old friends like Iran and Russia have become transactional with us. " Strategic silence", " delicate balancing act" are all synonyms for " majboori" and "kamzori". But that's fine: we simply don't have strengths ( unlike genuine superpowers like Russia & China) to offer. So we play to our weaknesses -aka " jahanpanah , tussi great ho..." and get mercy - aka LPG , Oil biscuits - in return. As they say in aamchi Mumbai, "chalega".
(And if Trump indeed wants to wind down, why are the marines headed to the gulf? Don't believe a thing of this " winding down" bs.)
So overall, barring a nuclear attack, there is no clear end visible to this war.
I desperately hope I am wrong.
And as a very knowledgeable Geo political expert told me yesterday, if there is a nuclear attack on Iran, the winds from Central Asia will drive the effect to North India without a shadow of doubt, affecting soil, water, weather, crop, life, for 15-20 years.
Better head to Shimla before it's too late!