TA

I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth. Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market. If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history. If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want. If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime." By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything. Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran? Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent. "Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to. Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico." It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made. I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation. And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms. And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months? Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!" Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire. Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :) #oott #iran

@MichaelAArouet That garage is definitely full of hypercars. 🤦

Tax the rich!

@ThHappyHawaiian And hopefully, you also bought more than a year ago and now have a cost basis of zero.

Since just January 26th 2025, Silver has had 5 days where the price had $10-$15 intraday range 3 days with $15-$20 range 1 day with $20-$25 range 1 day with a $44 range A year ago silver was only $31. 40% of the last 25 trading days have had a $10+ move intraday

@_ForceMajeure_1 @TwainsMustache Monday oil will be interesting.

@TwainsMustache Yep… weekend oil is in the 70s, not 90s

People said there was some crazy news happening today. 17 puppies. Wild.

A British father was heading out with his family to attend a football match when they encountered a man urinating on their fence and blocking their path at the gate. While the father tried to reason with the man as his children cried, he eventually took decisive action to resolve the situation.

@FirstSquawk So… my Temu order isn’t coming is it.

HORMUZ DISRUPTION HITS CONTAINER SHIPPING The Strait of Hormuz is affecting more than oil and gas—container ships carrying everything from PlayStations to furniture are also impacted. Hapag-Lloyd has suspended voyages through the strait, and analyst Lars Jensen reports multiple ships pausing or turning back, confirmed by vessel-tracking data.

@AMK_Mapping_ @DanCollins2011 Bro was committed to that shot.

A person films from their room as an Iranian Shahed-131/136 drone impacts the floors above them in Manama, Bahrain.

*World War 3 unfolding in real-time* Europeans: “Let’s pick this up on Monday”

@BankerWeimar Short the physical shortage by… going long?

This account understands #Silver You can’t short a physical shortage

@great_martis They must have the AI everyone’s been talking about.

Ladies and gentlemens, let me introduce you to CBA, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia …. its largest bank, trading at an eye-watering 29x P/E. Meanwhile… The global banking industry average P/E is around 11–12x. Major US banks like JPMorgan Chase trade at ~13–15x forward P/E, Bank of America ~12–13x, and many European and Asian banks even lower (often 7–10x). Regional US banks are often in the low teens.

@StealthQE4 Like palm pilots?

What if AI doesn’t increase productivity and just turns out to be another tech widget/fad?

@Tablesalt13 The hidden tax. It looks a lot the housing prices chart on the right.

🚨BREAKING JUST CONFIRMED Beef price inflation in Canada is now SURGING at 18.8% over 12 months. LOOK AT THE F'IN CHART! ITS PARABOLIC....... SOMETHING IS HAPPENING!

@thecavemommy I just recently saw a grwat deal on a Nissan Armada. 5.6L V8, probably not tremendous on fuel but made in Japan and reliable (according to reviews). We only have one little guy but I’m thinking about buying one for my wife.

I’m trying my hardest to find an SUV that’s suitable for three to four car seats that isn’t either 1) Giant Expedition / Yukon / Tahoe / Sequoia 2) A complete piece of crap (bye bye Kia Telluride and Hyundai Palisade) 3) Has a cramped third row (bye bye Mazda / Volvo / Honda Pilot) 4) VW Atlas & Acadia only have 6 seats. There is none, besides maybe the Highlander. Lol, the minivan is seriously the best option if you are going to have 3 young children at least in car seats

@KRFsocial @RayDalio To your point about nuclear weapons; 1. It opens up more intense versions of the types of war that are not directly kinetic. 2. Proxy wars become the new normal (Ukraine, IRGC militias) 3. Plausible deniability in acts of Subterfuge/Sabotage e.g. factory fires.

You're right that the Munich speeches were striking when Merz, Macron,and Rubio all say the old order is gone,that means something. Where I disagree is the leap from "under stress" to Stage 6 collapse. Your model seems to work backwards,taking centuries of messy history and finding the pattern it's looking for. 2008 could have been Stage 6. COVID could have been. Neither were. The line keeps moving, and I think it's fair to ask how predictive the framework actually is versus how well it explains things after the fact. I'd also push back on the 1930s comparison. The structural conditions you track are real including debt levels, wealth gaps, and polarization, but the differences matter too. The gold standard transmitted deflationary shocks with no relief valve. Today we have floating exchange rates, central bank swap lines, and monetary tools that didn't exist then. More importantly, nuclear weapons didn't exist in the 1930s. That one fact fundamentally changed how great powers interact. They haven't fought each other directly in 80 years and I'd genuinely love to hear how your framework accounts for that, because it's the most important data point in modern international relations and the Big Cycle doesn't seem to have an answer for it. The part I find most worth debating is the "might is right" framing. When we tell people the rules don't matter and power is all that counts, we risk not just describing reality but shaping it. That framing can give authoritarian governments exactly the justification they're looking for. You're asking the right questions and I think everyone benefits from that. But when someone with your influence says collapse is inevitable, capital repositions, leaders harden, and people stop believing the order is worth defending. I'd argue that's not just a forecast because it carries other weight.

@degengambler82 @unusual_whales

@TroyArthurK @unusual_whales Yes. lol No delays will happen, but sucks for us cuz we spent all the money... but again, why is canada trying to go toe to toe with trump. We deserve this. smh

BREAKING: Trump has said: Will not allow the bridge between Ontario and Michigan to open until the United States is "fully compensated." Will start negotiations immediately

@Matt_Pinner Platz

Just one word please

@degengambler82 @unusual_whales And the tunnel is still open too right?

@unusual_whales lol its a 2nd bridge i live here. No delays he can cut it off and everything will still be smooth, its next to ambassador Bridge about 4KM from it.

@unusual_whales People just going to slide over to Port Huron?