TrumX
484 posts
Going to be hard for the market to get going while tech is down and the market is under most technical levels of support. Throw low volume on that and this is the perfect environment for a big news impact
English
@trader_53 Jap is absurd. Auch Spreadausweitungen jenseits gut und böse sind da an der Tagesordnung.
Ist alles ein Trauerspiel. Bei Aussetzung ist deren Helpdesk wenigstens relativ fix, aber warum es bei dem Hebel überhaupt zu ner Aussetzung kommt ist mir schleierhaft.
Deutsch
Mal seit Ewigkeiten wieder naiverweise einen Goldman KO gekauft, GG8FQT… Instrument wurde sofort ausgesetzt, das jetzt seit einer Stunde, ohne erkennbaren Grund und gleichsam ohne Aussicht auf Verbesserung
Ausmachender Betrag des Kaufs ca 20.000 Euro
Emittent Market Cap: 300 Mrd USD
Es mag Ausnahmen geben, aber nach meiner Erfahrung befindet sich die deutsche Derivatebranche allgemein seit Jahren in einem beklagenswerten Zustand.
Deutsch
@ZeeContrarian1 What a roller coaster of "Buy" "Sell" "Buy" 😂 nothing fundamentally changed.
The Israeli bid has been around for some weeks so nothing changed here except that the price has dropped 😅
But yes obviously $ZIM is worth more than $23
English
Here is the simple $ZIM story.
A serious bidder effectively told you the company is worth at least $50 per share to them. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have been willing to offer $37.50 per share while also agreeing to carve out the ships needed by the Israeli government and giving the workers a huge cash compensation.
That implies ZIM’s underlying value is closer to $50–60 per share.
Today, you can still buy it for around $23.
When industry experts are effectively valuing the business at roughly $50–60, while the market is offering it at $23, that’s what I call a true margin of safety.
English
@AktienDenker @BBoersenbriefe Kenne ich nicht, aber gibt natürlich immer outperformer, survivorship bias usw.
Oder Markt passt einfach zu Trendfollowtradern was die meisten Börsenbriefe ja sind. Und würde das auch so unterschreiben bei der aktuellen Marktlage.
Aber egal ob Glück oder nicht, gain ist gain.
Deutsch
Super interessant, danke dir für das Teilen!
Ich bin bei den meisten wirklich skeptisch und misstrauisch. Aber kennst du zB die Briefe vom Bernecker? Ich beziehe zB den TB Daily und muss sagen, dass ich damit wirklich sehr happy bin & damit über die letzten Jahre „ordentlich“ Gewinne erziehlt habe. Bezieht sich in dem Fall aber nur auf Derivate
Deutsch
Liest jemand von euch regelmäßig professionelle Börsenbriefe wie zum Beispiel den von @BBoersenbriefe ?
Deutsch
Ich möchte:
> nicht in die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung einzahlen
> in keine Betriebsrente einzahlen
> in keine private Rentenversicherung einzahlen
Ich möchte mich selbst um meine Altersversorgung kümmern.
Mit Aktien, Immobilien, Gold & Bitcoin.
Was spricht eigentlich gegen dieses Konzept? 🤔
Deutsch
@AktienDenker @heinrichseiner @CoinImpulse 👍 sollte kein Schwanzvergleich werden, gibt immer größere Fische. Falls du mal Lust auf nen gescheiten Austausch dazu hast, bin ich für sowas immer zu haben.
Dir auch!
Deutsch
@TrumX3 @heinrichseiner @CoinImpulse Da ist alleine meine Allianz Position größer 🙃
Aber nochmal, wirklichen Glückwunsch & das meine ich komplett ernst und ohne „Arroganz“.
Schöne Restwoche dir ✌️
Deutsch
Mal eine Frage in die Runde:
Ist hier jemand, der bereits komplett von seinen Dividenden leben kann?
Dafür braucht man doch ein Portfolio von mindestens einer Million Euro.
Deutsch
@AktienDenker @heinrichseiner @CoinImpulse Gott ist das peinlich, arrogant ohne Ende aber über 3% Rendite labern als wäre es der heilige Gral.
Und das ist nur mein Trading account 😘
Viel Spaß mit deinen Hemden
Deutsch
@TrumX3 @heinrichseiner @CoinImpulse Ich diskutiere nicht mit Blinden ob mein Hemd was ich trage schwarz oder weiß ist.
Aber abgesehen davon Glückwunsch, dass du von deinem Depot „sehr gut leben“ kannst 💪
Deutsch
@AktienDenker @heinrichseiner @CoinImpulse Peinlich anstatt mit Argumenten zu kommen, zu implizieren, ich hätte ein kleines Depot. Selbst wenn das so wäre (ich kann von meinem Depot sehr gut leben), ist es irrelevant. Eine risikofreie Nettorendite von 3.75% ist verfügbar, irgendwie anzulegen wo du darunter bist, ist dumm.
Deutsch
@TrumX3 @heinrichseiner @CoinImpulse Ja, absurd für jemanden der ein kleines 5-6 satellites Depot hat.
Du schaffst das schon 👍
Deutsch
@AktienDenker @heinrichseiner @CoinImpulse Was ne absurde Aussage.
Wenn du dein komplettes networth in 20y US Treasury bonds packst, hast du ja schon 3.75% Nettorendite. Mit 100% Sicherheit, weil wenn die ihre 20Y bonds nicht mehr bedienen können ist Geld eh nichts mehr wert. Alles unter 5% Bruttorendite ist ein fail.
Deutsch
@heinrichseiner @CoinImpulse Daher du bei einem solchen Vermögen nicht alles in einen Titel oder in eine Branche stecken solltest, wäre am Ende eine netto Rendite von 3% absolut akzeptabel.
Deutsch
@ZeeContrarian1 @ROICRHODES So you're short $ZIM then? If you're so sure it falls through?
English
I still think there’s ~30% chance this deal gets done, so “close to no chance” might be a bit drastic, but only with the right setup. Without FIMI, one of Israel’s most connected and credible PE funds, deeply embedded in the local business world- I don’t see who can realistically execute something this complex. The new offer still feels sketchy: no clear structure, financing, or execution plan.
English
This is why I think there’s close to no chance the $ZIM deal goes through.
Direct quotes from Israeli transportation sources and reporting around Minister of Transportation Miri Regev make it very clear this is not just a business transaction - it’s a national security and political issue.
According to the Israel Today newspaper reports:
•The decision to activate the state’s “golden share” was reportedly already made internally, even if not officially announced yet.
•Minister Miri Regev is reportedly against the deal.
•The Israeli Ministry of Defense and broader security establishment are also reportedly strongly opposed to dismantling Israel’s merchant fleet.
•Officials reportedly stated that Israel’s maritime security considerations go far beyond the 11 ships involved in the proposed structure.
•The reports also state that this could force the Israeli state into aggressive legal action that may ultimately be decided in court.
To me, this explains why there can be a $35 bid on the table while the stock trades dramatically below it.
The market understands this is not a normal merger arbitrage situation. This is fundamentally a political and national-security question.
Imagine if a company found some contractual workaround that technically allowed the sale of the Pentagon.
Does anyone seriously believe the U.S.
government would allow the Pentagon to be sold because of contractual law?
This is obviously not identical, but conceptually it’s a very similar situation. When national security assets are involved, governments tend to do whatever they believe is necessary regardless of how contracts are interpreted.
English
@RealDayTrading That may be the case, but until that valuation is proven in a public market I'm not surprised to see no revaluation of $SKM. If they sell their stake though 👀
English
@TrumX3 If it that valuation is 25% lower than reported (and it is most likely higher) $SKM is still undervalued just on a pure asset basis
English
In today's episode of Price Action that doesn't make sense - $SKM has a .5% stake in Anthropic - which looks to have a $900 Billion Valuation. That translates to $4.5 for $SKM in value. That stock should be trading at $55-$60.
English
Online Dating dies das
Was halten wir davon
Umfrage in den drukos...
Deutsch
@aleabitoreddit Did I miss the "new unholy CPO long idea"? @aleabitoreddit or didn't you release it yet?
English
Unfortunately, not all my names go up triple digits in a week.
$HPS.A is only up ~17% so far.
Hammond was my pick for the transformers/switchgear DC bottleneck since it had a lower MC but high dry transformer market share.
$POWL was another good switchgear long that I came across often; I ended up passing but just throwing that out there.
Transformers/Switchgear are probably under-appreciated as a bottleneck but many types are sold out for the next 2-5 years.
Because of this, they’re causing widespread DC delays and should be a good structural long from backlog visibility + extreme demand.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. They dominate the market for: -Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market), -serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck) -and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck) I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”… Then you go further: “To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers” Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US? Hammond Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: “Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”. Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know? Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers") Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry). The most compelling signal: -> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD. Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog. Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD. Also: “Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now. Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp. But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition. Regardless still looks cheap. Just a TLDR: $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear. Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long. Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.
English
Nothing beats fintwit with their market advice in case the world ends.
I mean you might be starving as you fend off other survivors but those OTM leaps are definitely printing!
English
@Bobby_Bagina @Mike10947310 So it IS a small account.
Again, having 50% net worth swings is not healthy and I wouldn't want to see your sortino, I bet it's horrible
English
@TrumX3 @Mike10947310 Since you asked so nicely it’s well into the six figures. This is my trading account not one of my investment accounts. I trade stocks and futures, no options or 3x etfs, etns, etc.
Sure the degen comment isn’t projection-you just jelly? People do make money maybe just not you.
English
This is honestly been such a hard market since October—the hardest I have experienced (not that I am that experienced). I’ve just chopped down since October. If you are making money consistently you are probably in the top 10% of investors or traders, and even just being flat is really good.
I do think if things get really bad, which again they might, vs. like post liberation day when I was much less bearish… and you keep your head and book… you’ll do very well when things eventually improve
English
@Mike10947310 @Bobby_Bagina Is it? Look at these moves. 25-40% portfolio moves in a matter of days are not healthy and likely show a very small account degen into very concentrated leveraged positions.
English