Chris in Canada 🍁

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Chris in Canada 🍁

Chris in Canada 🍁

@tsxman

Focus: Energy markets #OOTT, Public real estate, countercyclical investing. Trying to be ahead of the curve. Everything I write is original.

Québec Katılım Haziran 2009
277 Takip Edilen11.3K Takipçiler
Chris in Canada 🍁
$NXRT still chugging. Glad I loaded up at 8.2% yield or so on the dip with some FI cash. Management talked of using DST agreements to prove NAV and bolster FFO if need be.
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Chris in Canada 🍁
$NXRT up 9.5% on better then expected Q1 earnings release. Says 🇺🇸 Sunbelt multifamily entering the most favourable backdrop in over a decade after big supply wave. New starts down 70%. Says they will prove their NAV out thru 3rd party transactions. Committed to the dividend.
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Chris in Canada 🍁@tsxman

$NXRT showing some signs of life. Was the REIT I added to the most during the YTD downturn. Sunbelt multifamily w/ alot of interest rate sensitivity & stretched div coverage. I see it as an M&A target but would be just as happy if rates fall a bit & lock in 8% yield on a MF name.

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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
DIAMONDBACK SEES PERMIAN ADDING ANOTHER 25-30 RIGS BY END OF 2026 The cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices
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Chris in Canada 🍁
@TheWiseIC @AllWeatherFund I think its a bot. REIT bagholders are useful contras to me so I wouldn't do so otherwise. Agree $Hr.un management self dealed for years inc with $200m internalization. Hofstedter fam aligned with retail and others now equity wise and prob closes up shop. Entry points matter.
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The Wise Investor 🧠
REITs are getting smoked today across the board because of the 10 Year. I still maintain my $HR.UN stance and continue to accumulate sub $10 if possible. I am very optimistic and heavily attracted to the consistent distribution and margin of safety at today’s prices.
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Chris in Canada 🍁
@TheWiseIC @AllWeatherFund Pretty sure you are communicating with a bot. I've seen these guys clone accounts and then they start writing AI substack articles with bits and pieces. In any case half my exposure was green today while the other half was modestly down. Entry points matter.
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The Wise Investor 🧠
The Wise Investor 🧠@TheWiseIC·
@AllWeatherFund @tsxman Both trade at 5 year high multiples and have higher payout ratios. Both won’t transact. I think there’s a chance HR could transact - Even if it doesn’t, all they have to do is sell off the office component and it’s a high quality US MF+CAN Commercial+CAN Industrial asset base.
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Chris in Canada 🍁
@SA_VanInvestor No. Looks like they bleeding market share in US hence more acquisitions. But probably gonna see more tailwind in Clearwater as PD signalled more E&P are ramping up and they are the go-to directional driller there. Interesting ownership roster. I think it will do well.
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SA_vaninvestor
SA_vaninvestor@SA_VanInvestor·
@tsxman Chris are you still long $acx.to going into earnings? I have been adding to my position since the dip in April.
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Chris in Canada 🍁
OFS multiple charts from #CIBC's underwhelming coverage. $ESI.TO $PTEN $PD.TO $HP $NBR $TOT.TO
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Chris in Canada 🍁
$MRG.UN, CIBC anaysts think the US Sunbelt markets are showing signs of optimism-reversal from March based on Yardi Matrix data. They expect more weakness in Canada given occupancy-rent prices. No position.
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Adam⛰️
Adam⛰️@AssetTraveller·
I’ve debating various Toronto real estate investments and none of them still make any sense on a rent income perspective. Some big discounts out there though..
wealthmoose@wealthmoose

🇨🇦 #BREAKING: Toronto condo sales have plunged to levels not seen since 1991. 🇨🇦 With "no new project launches" and inventory swelling, the market is at a 35-year standstill. Per CTV/Urbanation, the floor has officially dropped out. The era of the $1M shoebox might be over. 🏠 #ToRe #Housing

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Patrick De Haan
Patrick De Haan@GasBuddyGuy·
BREAKING: #Alberta has set a new all-time record for average diesel price at 207.1c/L beating out 2022's record of 201.6c/L
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Chris in Canada 🍁
@yenoms I don't have a precise number, but if I read this right it says 3% of gross rent for remainder of calendar of year per property sold for months under contract. This $ACR has a complete different and punishing management termination structure then $NXRT at a glance.
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yenoms
yenoms@yenoms·
@tsxman Ok so what is your number? I haven’t looked enough to scrutinize it .. my guess without calculating is at least $50m prob much higher..
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yenoms
yenoms@yenoms·
Even $cold outperforming most multi names YTD.. Multi bros be hurting 🤕
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Chris in Canada 🍁
@yenoms If the contract is renewed annually with disclosed ~3% gross rent per property sold-terminated how can it be that high? I read the annual report in detail today and it talks about potential internalization. Unless I'm missing something which it is possible I am.
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yenoms
yenoms@yenoms·
@tsxman Hmm, I haven’t looked.. you know their portfolio/program better than me.. so having read that, what do you think the fee will be?
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Chris in Canada 🍁
@yenoms How much do you think @yenoms that $NXRT internalization might cost? Below what I found scoping the issue deeper. Looks like the term is renewed on a 1-year basis from February and equivalent to 3% gross rents. The terms don't seem to far-fetched unless I'm missing something.
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yenoms
yenoms@yenoms·
Any other multi names this decimated?? As a value sucker.. I applaud myself for mostly avoiding this trap.. Dondero + potential internalization, have kept me away..
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BNN Bloomberg
BNN Bloomberg@BNNBloomberg·
#BREAKING: U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an order authorizing the Bridger Pipeline’s proposed project to transport Canadian crude from the U.S.-Canada border to Wyoming. bnnbloomberg.ca/business/inter…
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Chris in Canada 🍁
@TSXDivStock @CarmySports @TheWiseIC More big boy volume. Arguably same RBC buyer who would be around 10% now if same party assuming started out at 0 and inceemental ownership. Will be interesting to see $hr.un voting results later today. Nobody had questions. Open-shut meeting.
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Chris in Canada 🍁
$PUMP now up 265% YoY & 85% YTD. Raises 2026 capex by around ~$100 million with most of the capex dedicated to its aspiring power business, not completion business, which was formerly its 'main' business as a Permian pureplay. Absolutely incredible performance here.
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Chris in Canada 🍁@tsxman

Permian pureplay #OFS $PUMP now down ~51% off 2025 highs. Most of their fleet is e-frac or Tier 4 and according to the last call nearly 100% of their fleet on dedicated service agreement. Trading around 2.3x ev/ebitda (presentation from April 1) Is it a buy @EnergyRealist25?

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Chris in Canada 🍁
$PDS / $PD.TO perspective from TD analysts. Says the company facing contract churn in the USA. Canadian rig count higher YoY due to a pick up in heavy oil drilling.
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Chris in Canada 🍁
@Sportellosprea1 The conference call will be fun to listen to for entertainment purposes. I would expect bad results here and I think they will have to eliminate the distribution. Probably not in Q1 but by EOY.
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Sportello_spreadsheets
Sportello_spreadsheets@Sportellosprea1·
$AP.UN Q1 this eve. no deep dive from me but still interested in Cdn office. CFO transition ❌ leasing data on site recently reduced ❌ pretty much trading at AIMCo raise of $10. Positive surprises would be positive GTA A class office spilling into Allied 1/X
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