Belisarius Cawl

//The Wire//2300Z May 26, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES STRIKES FASTBOATS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IRAN RESPONDS BY DOWNING AMERICAN DRONES. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN MISSOURI. COUNTER-ICE RIOTS CONTINUE IN NEW JERSEY. CHEMICAL EXPLOSION REPORTED IN WASHINGTON.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight the United States conducted strikes within Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM stated that one SAM site was destroyed in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas, along with several minelaying vessels allegedly attempting to lay mines in the Strait. In response, the Iranians claim to have shot down two drones, an MQ-9 Reaper and an MQ-4C Triton. The Iranians also claim to have engaged an F-35, but did not claim to have shot it down. -HomeFront- New Jersey: Counter-ICE demonstrations and unrest continue at the Delaney Hall Detention Facility. Rioters have clashed with ICE agents several times over the weekend, at times gaining the upper hand as federal forces remain spread thin. Throughout Monday afternoon, into this morning, various stages of kinectivity have been reported, ranging from full-blown riots, to the more standard noise-making protests observed so far during this conflict. Analyst Comment: This afternoon, several detainees were released from the compound to the cheers of the crowds, but the context for these releases has not been made clear. Either way, the crowd is interpreting these releases as a victory. Missouri: Yesterday evening a mass shooting was reported at a grocery store in Pleasant Hill. Local authorities state that one suspect entered the parking lot of the store, exited his vehicle, and began firing on shoppers in the parking lot. One citizen was killed exiting the store, and one employee of the store was wounded while moving carts back inside the store. The suspect has been identified as Allen Prince, who attempted to take his own life at the scene, but failed and is expected to survive. Analyst Comment: So far, there is no clear understanding of why this individual chose to conduct this attack, nor why this venue was selected as the target. More details are expected as the investigation continues. Washington: This morning a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging Company in Longview. Local authorities state that a chemical-based implosion took place after a large tank ruptured and collapsed in on itself this morning. Following the initial event, a major fire broke out at the facility which destroyed much of the compound. Concerning casualties, several employees were killed during the blast, and around a dozen others experienced severe chemical burns. The number of fatalities resulting from this incident has not yet been confirmed by authorities. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: So far this week, the situation in the Middle East remains as clear as mud, as what's happening in the Strait remains hard to confirm. This morning, claims circulated on social media by various media outlets stating that during the night the United States attempted to restart Project Freedom under the cover of darkness. Throughout the afternoon, other claims emerged stating the opposite, that the US has not re-ignited Project Freedom. Regardless of how it is defined or labeled, evidence does indicate that one Greek-owned supertanker transited the Strait overnight. However, a few hours later, the UKMTO reported that a vessel had been struck with an unknown munition in the Gulf of Oman. Right now it's not clear as to if this is the same vessel that transited, or if this was a different ship. It is also not clear as to if this Greek supertanker was actually escorted by the United States, or merely guided over the radio (after paying the Iranian toll), or if the US was involved in this saga at all. These details might not ever be known with any certainty, but the situation remains tense all around as diplomatic efforts look less and less likely to come about anytime soon. The United States might indeed have attempted to sneak out a tanker or two once again, to have some justification for saying that the Iranians don't have control over the Strait...even if these vessels that have been "helped" by the US Navy might have actually been granted permission by the Iranians. This detail is not known, but it would be imperative to figure out as the distribution of power in the Middle East hangs in the balance. More practically for the American people and western Europe, the global fuel crisis continues as before. Following the truth coming out of no peace deal being on the table (along with the kinetic targeting overnight) oil prices rose to above $100 per barrel once again this morning. As we approach the end of May, it is important to remember that the high gas prices that are observed today...are actually artificially low. The United States has been draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at an increasing rate since mid-March. This month, the US drained an additional 29 million barrels, which comes after draining another 20 million barrels in April. Similarly, China is also draining their own strategic oil reserves, and has cut their import of petroleum sharply with some estimates suggesting China has cut their imports by about 20% over the past few weeks. Now that the US and others are dipping into their strategic reserves at an increasing rate just to keep oil at roughly $100 per barrel, it's not clear when that supply will eventually dwindle enough to not be able to cover the true impacts the war is having on the energy sector. Analyst: S2A1 Research: publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z May 25, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WEEKEND RHETORIC OF POTENTIAL PEACE DEAL IN MIDDLE EAST GIVES WAY TO RENEWED EFFORTS TO REIGNITE THE WAR IN IRAN. MULTIPLE INDUSTRIAL INCIDENTS REPORTED IN LOS ANGELES. PEPPER SPRAY INCIDENTS CONTINUE IN JAPAN. SHOOTING REPORTED AT WHITE HOUSE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Japan: This morning a chemical incident was reported at Ginza Six Mall in Tokyo. One individual reportedly sprayed an unidentified noxious substance at one of the entrances to the mall, which resulted in many people becoming ill. 12x individuals reported throat pain, and a total of 25x people sought medical treatment after the substance was released. Analyst Comment: When it comes to chemical incidents involving unknown materials in public places, the potential explanations vary widely. In this case, the origin appears to be pepper spray, with some locals claiming that an argument between two foreign men devolved into one of the two pepper spraying the other. Officially, no statements by authorities have confirmed what happened. As always, incidents like this occurring in Japan are extremely rare as pepper spray is heavily regulated and illegal to carry throughout the country. Consequently, incidents which wouldn't be worth mentioning in the western world result in overwhelming responses in Japan, and in this case this is the second such incident this month. Two weeks ago, someone deployed pepper spray on a train at Kawasaki Station, which occurred without much media attention. -HomeFront- California: Multiple major industrial incidents have taken place in Los Angeles over the past few days. Several days ago, a chemical incident was reported at the GKN Aerospace facility in Garden Grove. The incident involved a cooling system failing inside a large tank holding about 7,000 gallons of methyl methacrylate (UN: 1247), a Toxic Industrial Compound (TIC) used in the manufacture of epoxies and resins. This is a highly unstable compound if not handled appropriately, which can result in chemical reactions taking place inside the tank if certain conditions are met. Over the weekend, these conditions resulted in the evacuation of roughly 50,000 people, with local authorities being concerned that the tank might explode. As of this morning, a crack had formed in the tank, relieving the pressure and reducing the risk of an explosion. Separately, a large fire was reported in South Gate, as an automotive facility burned Sunday afternoon. A shelter-in-place order was issued for the local area due to the smoke and the close proximity of the fire to residential communities. Localized power outages were also reported in the neighborhood, but power was restored after the fire was knocked down throughout the evening. In East Los Angeles, a spill of crude oil was reported after a telecoms crew installing fiber optic lines accidentally hit a petroleum pipeline, causing a rupture. This pipeline break resulted in a few thousand gallons of crude entering the storm drains in the vicinity of the intersection of Caesar Chavez and Eastern Avenue. Washington D.C. - Over the weekend, a small arms engagement was reported at the White House, after a man approached the perimeter fence with a handgun. Authorities state that one individual approached a Secret Service checkpoint and drew a firearm from a bag, before engaging the agents at the checkpoint at the corner of 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue. Secret Service personnel engaged the shooter, ending the incident. One bystander was wounded during the incident. Analyst Comment: The suspect has been identified as Nasire Best, who had a long history of presenting security threats to the White House. Best had previously attempted to breach the compound in the past, and had also made verbal threats toward Secret Service personnel. In June of last year, Best was arrested after blocking a traffic lane entering the White House compound, and subsequently committed to a mental institution. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Over the weekend, several developments have taken place with regards to diplomacy in the Middle East. On Saturday, President Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran was "largely negotiated", subject to the final details being worked out. Almost immediately following this announcement, Iranian state media refuted these claims as not being true, or being different from what has been discussed so far during the negotiations. On Sunday, President Trump reversed his stance on the immediacy of the deal being reached, stating that he has instructed his staff to take their time regarding the details of a deal. This morning, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that no deal is on the table, and the deadlock continues. As it stands, it's possible that the weekend shenanigans are the result of a few different theories. For one, the rhetoric from the White House could be the standard effort to calm economic markets. Normally, these "good news" social media posts are issued on Monday mornings shortly before the opening bell on Wall Street, but lately have also been taking place late in the week. Conversely, the confusing messaging regarding a potential peace deal could me more organic...it's not the first time that peace talks have collapsed at the eleventh hour all on their own, or from actions by parties around the region objecting to the deal in some manner. It's also possible that this is a repeat of the now long-forgotten final days before this war began, most notably what transpired in the 72 hours leading up to the February 28th attacks. In retrospect, history indicates that even as the last-minute negotiations were taking place, the decision to use military force had been made many days before the war officially began. Likewise, a similar situation might be getting set up right now; it is possible that the US is transitioning into a renewed targeting effort. Until something happens either way, the three main possibilities remain, just as they have since the start of the ceasefire: Either a deal is reached and everything returns to normal as best it can, or the U.S. returns to bombing and the war resumes, or the stalemate continues as before with no real change to any of the points of deadlock. Time will tell what happens next, but for now nothing is signed and the "pause" to the war continues. Analyst: S2A1 Research: publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z May 19, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING YESTERDAYS SHOOTING IN CALIFORNIA. TENSIONS INCREASE IN IRELAND FOLLOWING DEATH OF CONGOLESE NATIONAL. WAR POTENTIAL IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS AS ALL PARTIES CONTINUE PREPARING FOR CONFLICT.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Ireland: Tensions have increased sharply following the death of a Congolese man on Friday. Yves Sakila died while resisting arrest, after he shoplifted from a local store and broke an elderly man's leg. This death has resulted in a mobilization of the Congolese population of Dublin, with mass protests planned for tonight and the next few days. Analyst Comment: It's too soon to tell, but many locals are saying this is Dublin's version of George Floyd in terms of civil unrest and the large Congolese population in Ireland. Roving bands of Congolese gangs commonly cause problems within Dublin, and since local tensions were already boiling before this, clashes are likely if the Congolese decide to escalate the situation. Middle East: The potential for a resumption of the war remains on the table, as rhetoric on all sides continues to escalate. The creation and streamlining of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (the Iranian organization that has claimed administrative control of the Strait) has continued to be of cause for concern for western-aligned vessels. The handful of ships that are transiting the Strait are sailing with their transponders turned off, and so far all vessels have transited with Iranian approval. This afternoon, President Trump stated that he was only one hour away from ordering the resumption of the fighting yesterday. He also stated that the fighting may resume in a few days regardless, and all parties around the region remain ready for the ceasefire to come to an end. -HomeFront- Alabama: Yesterday a suspect was arrested in conjunction with a missing person investigation in Northport. Two weeks ago, Karen Deann Hollis was reported missing, after concerned family members failed to locate her. On Saturday, her remains were located at an undisclosed location in Greene County. At the scene, authorities arrested Randall Lendell Dejourney on charges of abusing human remains for 8 days. He is being held in jail on a $15,000 cash bond and no murder charges have been filed. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Few details have come to light regarding yesterday's shooting at the San Diego Islamic Center, however the suspects have been identified as Cain Clark and Caleb Vazquez. The two shooters attempted to conduct a mass shooting at the facility, and began the attack by killing the security guard at the front entry point of the building. After making entrance to the facility, the suspects killed two more people, before re-entering their vehicle and driving a short distance from the facility. Both suspects were found deceased inside the vehicle with self-inflicted gunshot wounds. Concerning the suspects themselves, the very few details that have emerged indicate this was very likely the standard transgender shooting. Both suspects were of questionable status, though both appear to have been born male. Slogans and statements were written on the firearms with a white paint pen, which has become a staggeringly common calling card of most trans-affiliated mass shootings (as the shooters often try to copy previous attacks). Both attackers appear to have been Hispanic, but also used symbols from political movements that would not have approved of their lifestyle choices, which is another hallmark of such attacks as well. No official link to the Order of Nine Angles (O9A) or the 764 Network has been made, however this would be wise to investigate as this shooting is nearly identical to all prior O9A/764 mass murders from years past. The attackers also allegedly livestreaming the attack fits with many other similar attacks as well. Of note, another bit of amplifying information might be helpful for factoring in to risk assessments. Five days ago, a nationwide shortage of Progesterone was reported. Among many other more traditional uses, this medication is used by transgender individuals to level out mood changes during their process. More strategically, this could be nothing or it could be something. There's no indication at all that the two shooters in California were affected by this drug, and there is no evidence linking this attack to any drug shortage as drug shortages happen all of the time for varying reasons. However, copycat incidents are an extreme risk in the wake of attacks like this, and a drug which is intended to affect mood changes among this population is in short supply. Again, this might be a loose correlation at best, but it's worth being aware of when trying to calculate the risk of future copycat attacks. Analyst: S2A1 Research: publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

@captive_dreamer how is he trying to pass it off as new when the date is right there? ... in the post.

Just unbelievable. Called out on his blatant lying and just doubles down showing a four year old endorsement. The guy is scum. This is not a "principled" politician this is a desperate snake oil salesman hoping for a late fourth quarter hail mary

@realDonaldTrump everyone knows its an old statement.... its to showcase the hypocrisy around this issue

Horrible Congressman Thomas Massie put out an old Endorsement, from many years ago, of him by me long before I found out that he was the Worst Congressman in the History of our Country. I endorsed Ed Gallrein, a true American Patriot, which Massie knows full well, so the statement that he put out is fraudulent, just like HE is fraudulent. WITHDRAW YOUR FAKE STATEMENT, MASSIE, RIGHT NOW! President DONALD J. TRUMP

@dbongino remember when you resigned from your position where you could have been helpful but you were a giant pussy instead? 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤣

You need to save this chart. What do you notice here? This is probably the most important segment of my show today 👇

@KosherRedPill @EdGallrein fake bullshit you retard

@EdGallrein Massie is a Soros stooge

Let’s not forget that Thomas Massie was the only Republican member of Congress to vote against the SAVE Act. Today is Election Day. Today is the day to send a message by firing Thomas Massie. Polls are open until 6 PM. Every vote matters.

@EdGallrein shill

If legislators always vote with the President, we have a king. If legislators always vote with the prevailing wind, we have mob rule. If legislators always vote with the Constitution, we have a Republic.

@CynicalPublius So you do it for free. Is that better?

If you believe everyone who disagrees with you is a paid Israeli operative, you are an antisemite. Sorry to break it to you.

@KCHall411 @mazemoore @captive_dreamer he talks about it all the time FFS

@mazemoore @captive_dreamer Why didn’t Massie say a Word About Epstein When Biden had The files For 4 Years? He’s a Damn FRAUD

Thomas Massie barely three months ago: "Donald Trump is in with the Epstein class, this is the Epstein Administration." Just the most despicable lies imaginable.

@captive_dreamer wheres the lie?

@Fair_and_Biased @cenkuygur oh did Thomas Massie publicly welcome Cenk's endorsement? Do you really think just because someone from the other side has an opinion we should do the opposite? Embarrassing logic.

@TwoTdTp @cenkuygur The question would be whether Trump welcomed the endorsement.

This is such a silly game @cenkuygur is playing. “If my candidate wins, then America is America.” “If my candidate loses, then America is a vassal state.” Keep in mind that Cenk is a far leftist. Why would you as a conservative want to elect his preferred politician?

@marklevinshow no lies detected from massie..... you on the other hand

An example of Massie’s vile propaganda

//The Wire//2300Z May 18, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CRIME AND SHOOTING SPREES RUN RAMPANT IN UNITED STATES. VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED IN ITALY. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES AS STRIKES REPORTED AT EMIRATI NUCLEAR FACILITY. U.S. STRIKES ISIS LEADERSHIP IN NIGERIA. FUEL CRISIS RESULTS IN SHARP INCREASE IN SHIPPING PRICES WORLDWIDE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The situation remains as before, with most of the focus remaining on the restriction of travel through the Strait of Hormuz. As of this morning, all diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran have failed to open the Strait, and traffic remains stagnant through the waterway. A handful of tankers have transited out of the Strait via the Iranian route, but Project Freedom has not resulted in any western-aligned merchants transiting the Strait since the initial skirmishes on it's first day. Around the region, limited targeting efforts continue to take place. Yesterday, the UAE reported drone strikes at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Al Dhafra. Three drones were detected and two were shot down, but one drone successfully stuck the compound. None of the reactors at the facility were breached, and no release of radiological material was reported. Nigeria: Hostilities have increased sharply over the past few days, with the United States conducting several airstrikes targeting ISIS facilities. President Trump himself announced the completion of a raid targeting Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, a senior commander within the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP) insurgent group. Analyst Comment: Prior to a few days ago, the United States was only supporting Nigeria with intelligence and surveillance assets, and not openly engaging in the war themselves, at least as far as the public is concerned. The weekend raid on an ISIS stronghold is a major escalation of US involvement in the war, even though the mission may have initially been to capture al-Minuki. A good bit of reading between the lines is needed (along with a bit of speculation) to interpret what happened, as this announcement is different than other targeting efforts throughout the continent. The wording of all official reports implies that this was a ground operation to capture the leadership who had congregated together inside a compound. At some point, this ground operation transitioned to airstrikes taking out the target, with the High-Value Targets (HVTs) being killed during the strike. Speculating a bit, it's possible that when the ground force experienced significant resistance and everyone scattered from the meeting site on motorcycles, the US bombed the building and got al-Minuki by happenstance. This is a tale as old as time in the targeting world (especially in Africa), and aligns with the previous strikes within Sokoto, which targeted senior ISIS leadership in the same area back in December. Italy: Over the weekend a vehicle ramming attack was reported in Modena, as a terrorist rammed his vehicle into a crowd of people on Via Emilia Centro, a historic street in the center of town. A total of 10x people were wounded during the attack, with 4x victims remaining hospitalized in critical condition. The assailant has been identified as Salim El Koudri, and local authorities have not commented on motive. -HomeFront- Texas: Over the weekend a shooting spree was reported in Austin, as three suspects conducted approximately 12x small arms attacks around the city. The incident began Saturday with the theft of firearms from a local store, and also the theft of a vehicle from an apartment complex in north Austin. From there, the suspects conducted a joyride around the city, shooting at random citizens. One of the first targets was Fire Station 26 on Wentworth Drive, along with Fire Station 32 near Rollingwood. Throughout the city, over 20x different shooting calls were reported, with over 12x different shooting victims resulting from the shooting spree. At some point during the series of attacks from Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning, police made the connection that all of these attacks were related and involved the same suspects. A BOLO notice was put out by Austin PD, which was picked up by Manor Police Department, with one patrol officer visually observing the vehicle as the BOLO was put out on the radio. This immediately turned into a pursuit, with the suspects eventually crashing in a muddy field on state road 973, near a residential area in Manor. After the pursuit ended, the occupants of the vehicle scattered, and a large shelter-in-place order was issued while the manhunt was conducted to find the suspects. Two of the suspected shooters were captured immediately, a 17 year old and a 15 year old, both of which have long criminal records. A third suspect remained at large until nightfall, when he was discovered and arrested. California: This afternoon, an active shooter incident was reported at the Islamic Center of San Diego. Analyst Comment: No word yet on casualties or any other details yet as this is a developing situation. However, a media helicopter captured a video of a very clearly deceased individual located at the front entrance to the facility, so at least one person (possibly the shooter) was killed during the attack. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Around the world, fuel prices remain a growing concern. Over the past few days, sharp increases in the price of freight has been observed as the cost of diesel makes it more expensive to move cargo within the homeland. At the national level, the LMI Transportation index indicates that freight costs are the highest in recent memory, with the latest numbers for April being released and confirming what we already know...moving cargo is now extremely expensive. At the more operational level, this sharp increase in shipping costs can be seen with the price of moving a standard Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) shipping container. Before the war began, this container (on average) cost $980 to ship from China, to the Middle East (via the Red Sea route, not through the Strait of Hormuz). Right now, this same container costs about $4,131 to ship along the same route. During the COVID era, the maximum price observed was about $3,900 so as it stands, the oil shock has already impacted shipping costs more than COVID did. These costs are being observed right now within the United States both in terms of goods rising in price, but also availability. Throughout the Middle East, lots of talk continues and there isn't really any indicator for when this crisis might end. This afternoon, President Trump stated that the large-scale bombing of Iran was scheduled to continue tomorrow, but he has decided to hold off on the resumption of the war while a negotiated settlement is allegedly imminent. At the moment, it's not clear as to if this is just diplomatic posturing, or a genuine diplomatic effort. This exact situation was also alleged during the halt to Project Freedom, which stopped after one day due to a settlement that never came. In this case, this could be a negotiating tactic, but overall the war is certainly not over, and the effects of the war (i.e. the global petroleum crisis) remain largely unmitigated. Analyst: S2A1 Research: publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

@captive_dreamer @AnnCoulter lol what lies?

@AnnCoulter Massie brought this on himself by smearing the president with all sorts of salacious lies. Nobody should feel sorry for him.

The lies against Rep. Thomas Massie are NEVER-ENDING.

@Fair_and_Biased Anyone in Israel's way of getting funded 😂

Even if that was true, keeping Massie alienates other factions. All things being equal, we need to pass legislation, and Massie’s not getting it done.

@ed28739 @AJNlive Retardation

@AJNlive Another Taco Tuesday

Breaking: POTUS Calls Off Tuesday Attacks On Iran At Request Of Qatar, Saudi Arabia & UAE — Peace Deal Could Be Reached Imminently ᴇxᴘᴀɴᴅᴇᴅ ʀᴇᴘᴏʀᴛ ʟɪɴᴋᴇᴅ ʙᴇʟᴏᴡ