T Cha

⚾️ ATL @ LAD ⚾️ Picking on Bryce Elder tonight seems almost too easy. But alas: lots of ways we can do it, just need to be verrrrry careful. I started with LAD -1.5 -105 as a lock last night (now -125). Yes, that tangles me up with bullpens rather than just Elder, but with what we saw during the postseason last year and to start off this season? Advantage Dodgers. So the real question from a prop perspective: is anything even playable? After all from what I’ve seen earlier on in the ‘25 MLB season, the days of dime lines on standard player prop markets appears to be over in baseball… 💀 For example, just look at Ohtani’s total bases tonight! DK has 1.5 bases priced -120 both sides, BetMGM -118 both sides… heck, even the synthetic hold doesn’t get you inside -110 both sides! As good as Ohtani is, books have priced him at unbeatable numbers in the long-term IMO. Sad but true. So who — if anyone — can we bet on in blue tonight? To me, the answer is simple: any undervalued lefty (again: Ohtani sadly is not that). RHP Elder wasn’t great to either side last season but was especially awful to LHH: .336 avg allowed, 1.83 WHIP, 6.6% K-BB, 5.03 xFIP. Enter Michael Conforto, who didn’t get starts against southpaws Skubal or Sale but has otherwise seen at least four plate appearances in every start slashing .294/.400/.529 in just 17 AB’s. But big thing: the pinch-hit risk here is also almost non-existent as Freddie Freeman being on the shelf has made way for Hernandez + Pages — the two most likely pinch-hitters for him on a normal day — to occupy the 8 and 9 holes. That leaves Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, and Miguel Rojas as the only potential righties to replace him, which is extremely unlikely as Conforto was WAY better than all of the vs. LHP last season. So cleanup has me projecting Conforto for 2.5 AB’s versus gas can Elder, he’s got Ohtani/Betts/Teoscar setting the table for him, and post-Elder this Braves bullpen has been middle-of-the road so far in ‘25… give me the portfolio for Conforto tonight. ⚾️ PLAY: Michael Conforto OVER 1.5 H+R+RBIs -105 BetMGM 🔒

Wife: “So what are you cheering for tomorrow?” Me: “Patrick Mahomes to throw a lot.” Wife: “That’s it?” Me: “That’s it.” Wife: “I’m not sure why I married you sometimes.”

🔒🚘LET'S RIDE🚘🔒 Here are my two favorite plays for PrizePicks (correlation!), and my THREE favorite Underdog plays (3-Pick Standard is the optimal card type there) As always, if you haven't signed up at either site yet, promo code LINDY gets you up to a $100 first match!