ForecastEx retweetledi
Prediction markets can represent the best collective knowledge about our energy and climate future.
interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders…
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ForecastEx
42 posts
ForecastEx
@ForecastEx
A fully integrated exchange and clearinghouse offering trading in Forecast Contracts
Katılım Ağustos 2023
24 Takip Edilen407 Takipçiler
Predicting the future of prediction markets
Four leaders from companies in the prediction markets ecosystem discuss how this new asset class has evolved and where it is headed at the FIA's Boca 2025 conference.
fia.org/marketvoice/ar…
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We operate as a Member organization and, while we share common ownership with our Member, Interactive Brokers, LLC, we are separate organizations and share no employees or technology. We are working to expand our list of Members which we post on our website: forecastex.com/members/fcms
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I understand that yeah, you work with them to improve the platform and by extension try to increase volume on your exchange though no? Is there another broker aside from IBKR you work with that you offer markets on their platform currently?
I’d love to trade on your exchange but the only brokerage I’m aware of that you work with isn’t terribly good in terms of event contracts, and you don’t have market makers so there’s little to no liquidity
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The software through which customers submit orders is designed and operated by your broker and not ForecastEx, the exchange. We solely control the manner by which your broker transmits the order to us. Nonetheless, we will forward your comment to this Member but also suggest that you contact them directly should you have specific design recommendations.
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@ForecastEx Please make the exchange and IBKR forecast platform much more usable. Many retail traders don’t want to be overly reliant on Kalshi/their exchange, they need more competition especially in terms of fees, but liquidity is so low for you guys and IBKR is unusable currently
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"The best political forecasts come from foxes (knows many things, but not in depth) and not hedgehogs (with deep expertise in the discipline). To the extent that a market is filled with amateurs, with very different knowledge and skill sets, Tetlock's work can be viewed as being supportive of market-based forecasts."
aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-wi…
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ForecastEx retweetledi
Updating this, now that we have ForecastEx numbers.
Total volume in 2024 presidential winner market, by platform.
@Polymarket with 74% share
@ForecastEx/@IBKR/@RobinhoodApp 11%
@Kalshi 8%
@Betfair 5%
@PredictIt 1%
@Smarkets 0.3%
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@TheSuper_Model @Polymarket @Kalshi @Betfair @PredictIt @smarkets PREST + PRESH = 568.523M OI=426.309M
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Total volume in presidential winner market, by platform.
@Polymarket with 84% share (among this group*)
@Kalshi 10%
@Betfair 6%
@PredictIt 1%
@Smarkets 0.3%
ForecastEx (traded through Robinhood and IBKR) would be in 2nd place, but we don't have their cumulative volume.
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@camundahl @RobinhoodApp Good. Thank you for your interest in probability trading.
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@ForecastEx @RobinhoodApp Thank you for explaining this. It must be frustrating for you considering your level of understanding versus mine. I will do more research until I understand this. Thank you for providing answers and for the product. I enjoyed executing the election event contracts on Robinhood!
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ICYMI: You can purchase contracts predicting either a Harris or Trump win on Robinhood. Since launching the product last week, over 200M contracts have been traded.
Check it out at: go.robinhood.com/election
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@camundahl @RobinhoodApp The customers do that. We built it so customers can trade with customers without having to trade with incentivized members or specialists and it worked. 99% of the pairings on the PRES contracts were customer v customer.
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@ForecastEx @RobinhoodApp Thank you for the response. I may not be understanding, but what I meant was, how do you determine the price of contracts during market hours, as in Person X $0.40 and person Y $0.60?
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@camundahl @RobinhoodApp Pairing logic. If Y bid + N bid = $1.01 then they are 'paired' and sent to the clearing house fully collateralized. Upon resolution of the contract the correct bid get's paid $1 and the incorrect bid gets $0. The remaining penny is the only fee ForecastEx collects.
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@RobinhoodApp I looked on ForecastEx's website too but couldn't find an answer. How do y'all determine the election event contract pricing?
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@nostress Just to clarify. Robinhood applied for clearing membership at ForecastEx and our team worked with their engineers to onboard them. That cooperation was unique. That is how they are able to offer Forecast Contracts to their customers.
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Just listened to the Robinhood Q3 earnings call, and Vlad shared some impressive insights about the new elections contracts feature:
1. They decided just 30 days ago to develop and launch this product. It’s incredible to see a team go from concept to customer-ready product in just a month—and it’s both polished and highly functional.
2. The rollout was swift and seamless. In just three days, they launched on Monday, and by Wednesday, it was available to everyone.
3. On the first day alone, they hit 10 million contracts, and it’s only continuing to grow from there.
Robinhood's ability to innovate and deliver a polished product to customers at this speed is truly remarkable! $HOOD
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We will be temporarily expanding our trading hours starting at 2AM CT tomorrow, November 3, 2024. See the Notice to Members regarding this change:
data.forecastex.com/notices_to_mem…
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Open Interest for Forecast Contract event pairs stands at 103.3 million as of the close of our morning session today. This marks the first time since our August 1, 2024 launch date that it's exceeded 100 million.
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@amitisinvesting @SachivM99 @IBKR ForecastEx is the listing exchange for the contracts. Robinhood Derivatives is now a Clearing Member of ForecastEx and therefore offering its customers the ability to transact in our election contracts.
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$HOOD
My thoughts on the Robinhood election betting market news today:
- Kalshi is proving the demand for this market is huge
- I don't think $HOOD cares about the election but rather using this event as a test to see if they can launch a larger predictions market
- The rate of innovation here is just incredible with this coming out 2 weeks after futures, index options, and the new desktop app
- The people critiquing this move largely are missing the innovation in betting markets that's happening right now, EVERYTHING about the elections this cycle have changed in regards to media/polling because of these prediction markets and it seems that major events outside of the election will also have bids and asks for people who want to participate in it -- as a result, Robinhood may capitalize on that market
amit@amitisinvesting
BREAKING: ROBINHOOD $HOOD LAUNCHES BETTING ON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THROUGH EVENT CONTRACTS. Oh. My. Goodness. The rate of innovation by this company is beyond incredible… 2 things on this: 1.) Robinhood JUST introduced a new desktop trading platform, index options, and futures trading 2 weeks ago. All those products are rolling out, so this seems to be a NEW product on top of those core products that were announced recently. 2.) I don’t think Robinhood cares much about making money off Election contracts a week before the election — I think they are going for something much, much bigger…which is a marketplace to bet on anything. This elections event contract seems to be a way for them to test out a marketplace beyond stocks/crypto and if they can gain meaningful R&D from this, we may see something way bigger launched in the future around betting on derivatives that are tied to world events. LFG.
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ForecastEx announces the approval of a new Clearing Member, Robinhood Derivatives.
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