Regarding developments in Kostyantynivka over the past few weeks:
After the Russians' attempts to advance through the south toward the center of Kostyantynivka stalled around November 2025, their focus now appears to have shifted to the city’s flanks (double red arrows).
Western flank of Kostyantynivka:
Based on videos, the number of Russian soldiers in and around Stepanivka and Illinivka has increased significantly compared to recent weeks. Some soldiers have infiltrated as far as Dovha Balka and were able to wave flags in Illinivka. Although the dense network of anti-tank trenches (white lines) hinders Russian movements and makes them predictable, they are being breached with increasing frequency.
Based on our experience with similar incidents in neighboring villages over the past few months, which did not lead to long-term consolidation, we are somewhat hesitant to place this area under Russian control. In addition, Ukrainian attacks in this area have almost exclusively destroyed Russian positions in basements or resulted in the neutralization of Russian soldiers.
The Russians have been steadily expanding their control over the village of Berestok, located southeast of Kostyantynivka, in recent weeks. With the exception of a small contested section, they have managed to drive out the Ukrainians. Berestok serves as a key staging ground for Russian forces to infiltrate the south-west of Kostyantynivka and into Illinivka.
Central/Southern Kostyantynivka:
Ukrainian forces continue to hold key buildings in the southern part of the city (hatched blue area) as well as south of the city and in Ivanopillya, where Russian soldiers raised their flags in November 2025 but have not yet been able to bring the area fully under their control.
Key buildings in the southern part of Kostyantynivka include several industrial facilities, the Agricultural Technical School, and the Wagon Depot, which were infiltrated by a few Russian soldiers in isolated incidents weeks ago but appear to remain under Ukrainian control.
In a disturbing development at the end of March, individual Russian soldiers managed to infiltrate industrial facilities in the city center (long dashed red arrow) and were engaged by Ukrainian forces. Because we lack ongoing geolocation data, which might suggest ongoing combat or a consolidation of forces, we assume Ukrainian forces eliminated them.
Eastern flank of Kostyantynivka:
While the Santurynivka district continues to be characterized by a scattered presence of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, the overall number of documented Russian forces in the area remained lower in the first months of 2026 compared to December 2025. However, a significant increase in Russian infiltration attempts has been observed since early April in the Hora district and toward Novodmytrivka.
After months of Russian artillery fire targeting Ukrainian forces in the area, Russian soldiers are advancing along the edges of the sector, putting Ukrainian troops under intense pressure while simultaneously consolidating their positions in and around Predtechyne and Stupochky.
The connection between these current developments and the impact of the withdrawal of elements of the 5th Assault Brigade and the deployment of elements of the 44th Mechanized Brigade remains unclear.
General Development:
Overall, the initiative remains with the Russian side, even though they have only achieved minor successes on the city’s flanks recently. The Ukrainians are holding on to isolated positions far behind the line of contact, which hinders Russian forces from consolidating. Due to this Ukrainian tactic, this part of the frontline is characterized by several-kilometer-deep contested zones (yellow area) where neither side holds full control.
Furthermore, no major Ukrainian counterattacks have been observed recently; only the repulsion of Russian infiltrations and the recapture of positions near the contact line.
This is likely due to Russian drones continuing to dominate the skies around the city, making any concentration of soldiers or vehicles extremely difficult. Entering the city with vehicles involves enormous risks, and most logistics are carried out by Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs), which minimizes Ukrainian infantry casualties. Similar ambitions can also be seen on the Russian side, though not yet on such a massive scale.
Every few weeks or months, the Russians attempt to advance toward the city with armored vehicles. So far, these attempts have consistently been repelled before they reach the city limits, demonstrating that Ukrainian drone operations are preventing the Russians from deploying vehicles into the city. For the same reason, Russian infantry attacks usually consist of only one or two soldiers, which makes it difficult to take positions on a larger scale.
In the coming weeks, it remains to be seen whether the Russians will manage to expand the area their infiltrators frequently move through. Their objectives are likely comparable to those in Pokrovsk a few months ago, when the Russians broke the line of contact through large-scale infiltrations, turning the urban area into a patchwork of Ukrainian and Russian positions that complicated Ukrainian defenses and enabled them to push Ukrainian forces out of the city.
We'll continue to monitor the situation and check our map for any changes in other fighting directions as well.
-> map.ukrdailyupdate.com
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