Jose M. Fernandez

My hypothesis is that AI will lead to less dramatic layoffs (e.g., the Block memo) and more a slower drip: companies will continue to fire at similar rates, but will hire at much slower rates. Those who are left will be expected to use AI tools--to figure it out--in order to pick up the slack from those who were let go. This will naturally lead to AI models being adopted effectively throughout organizations. But the labor market implications for the economy are in some ways more dire than the dramatic scenario: exactly the type of slow drip of increasing unemployment and lower labor force participation that policy has the hardest time dealing with (policy is much better when there is a clear demarcated disaster).

“Among articles stating that data was available upon request, only 17% shared data upon request.”

When GPT-5 was released, some folks claimed AI progress was hitting a wall, whereas others said progress would continue. GPT-5.2 was released 2 months ago. GPT-5.3-Codex was released 2 days ago and is twice as token efficient for coding. It's clear who turned out to be correct.

I'll keep saying it: universities will not let film professors fail students because they'll lose tuition dollars. Universities will not let professors fail *any* students because they'll lose tuition dollars. Don't get sidetracked from the central issue.