Bonethug

No one could have expected this SPY and QQQ v-shape to new ATHs, right? I'll explain why I was calling for it, why I was positioned for it, along with some clips from my @ChartGuys live stream discussing it ahead of time. It comes down to market psychology, understanding the nature of the broad market, and then acting in line with that information. You do not get monthly consolidation or even weekly consolidation with the absence of fear. The market is designed to go up, when it goes down there is a dose of fear in the air, always. This round of monthly consolidation was special for two reasons: first it was coming off of a 44% v-shape from the April lows, people were thirsty for a proper pullback. Second was there was a strong and tangible narrative - the war. Not just any war but a headline heavy one with grandiose threats and generally "scary" news flow. This loaded the boat, many were positioned short based on emotions and headlines. From a technical perspective, it was a healthy pullback after an epic run and hitting daily OS conditions for the first time off of all-time highs, as well as monthly 12ema. On any other chart, technical traders would see that as a clear buy. Along with that, it was a clear red flag for bears when previous support from balance didn't act as resistance on the retest. The more people that are offsides, the more violent the rectification of that positioning becomes. And with that, fuel is continually added to the fire as folks try to short the v-shape. Understanding context and evaluating with a level head can help keep us on the right side of things and be prepared to navigate the environment with the proper approach and tools. We can not play a v-shape move the same way that we play a steady trend. It's important to have different tools for different jobs. Charts > emotions/ego/stories