Colin King

Do these estimates adequately reflect the 2026-2027 outlook $MICC gave? Stock is trading at ~8x EBITDA and 12.5x earnings per these numbers

CBIZ $CBZ quick value cliff notes... 1) roll-up of accounting services: audit, tax, advisory, benefits, payroll, insurance, etc. 2) in FY24, CBZ departed from years of tuck-in M&A for mega-deal with Marcum = doubled in size at expense of higher leverage and dilution 3) shares round-tripping after 5yrs... $30 to $90 to $26 4) valuation down from 20-30x earnings (historic) to 6.8x FY26 EPS guide ($3.80) 5) story shifting from: (1) years of low leverage + tuck-in M&A = steady 10-20% annual EPS growth; to (2) moderate leverage (3.2x) + slower organic growth (4-5%) 6) sell-off = growth stock to value stock transition 7) management delaying 2-2.5x leverage target from FY26 to FY27 (or later) in favor of buybacks (17%+ FCF yield) Reflexivity at play here... shares getting cheap from leverage and lower EPS growth = creating opportunity for engineering more EPS growth via buybacks (would like to see insiders buying though) Check out blog (in bio) for full write-up Disclosure: I own shares of $CBZ

Unpopular opinion: Manufacturing is the safest way to make money. I've worked inside 30+ industrial businesses across Fortune 100 and PE-backed companies. Here's what the finance world keeps getting wrong about blue-collar industrials:

Haven't heard a peep on $AXTA in years it feels like (Meryl Witmer pitched Barron's in 2016) 1) Decent business = specialty chem (light vehicle + commercial vehicle paints via body shops, OEM + industrial) 2) Stock is basically flat since 2016 despite improved fundamentals since then... revenue +27% and EPS +2.3x 3) New management as of mid-2023 (former Meritor CEO/CFO, sold that biz to Cummins) 4) Mgmt laid out 3-year plan (2024-2026) and essentially hit targets by end of 2025 and still finding ops improvements... decentralized P&L, capex/productivity investments, etc. 5) B/S historically levered ~3.5x (2014-2022), now at 2.5x (targeting 2-2.5x) = capital allocation potential 6) Valuation reasonable at 12x earnings / 8x EBITDA with peers at 14-15x earnings / 10x EBITDA Not cheapest idea on the planet but nice combo of: coiled spring chart + decent business + reasonable value. Specialty chem w/ 20%+ EBITDA margins usually good takeout candidates.

Happy closing day.

Random thing that improved my life: I got this ring light that I put next to my desk to shine bright light in my eyes early in the morning. I wake up at 430am and definitely saw an improvement in morning alertness and sleep quality. Also felt like it helped avoid winter lows.

Vote on VDL post for Monday...

Bad news, apparently $MAGN is being disrupted by AI today